The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability
Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist''s index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent p...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2001
|
| Series: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 01/68 |
| Online Access: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Summary: | Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist''s index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per year over the last 140 years, little support is found for a break in the long-run trend decline in commodity prices. Second, there is evidence of a ratcheting up in the variability of price movements. The amplitude of price movements increased in the early 1900s, while the frequency of large price movements increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s. While there is a downward trend in real commodity prices, this is of little practical policy relevance as it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (27 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451848994 9781451848991 |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:25Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:34Z |
| institution | BVB |
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| spelling | Cashin, Paul Verfasser aut The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability Cashin, Paul Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2001 1 Online-Ressource (27 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 01/68 Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist''s index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per year over the last 140 years, little support is found for a break in the long-run trend decline in commodity prices. Second, there is evidence of a ratcheting up in the variability of price movements. The amplitude of price movements increased in the early 1900s, while the frequency of large price movements increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s. While there is a downward trend in real commodity prices, this is of little practical policy relevance as it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices Online-Ausg McDermott, C. John Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/07135-9781451848991/07135-9781451848991/07135-9781451848991.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Cashin, Paul The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability |
| title | The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability |
| title_auth | The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability |
| title_exact_search | The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability |
| title_full | The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability Cashin, Paul |
| title_fullStr | The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability Cashin, Paul |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices Small Trends and Big Variability Cashin, Paul |
| title_short | The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices |
| title_sort | the long run behavior of commodity prices small trends and big variability |
| title_sub | Small Trends and Big Variability |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/07135-9781451848991/07135-9781451848991/07135-9781451848991.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cashinpaul thelongrunbehaviorofcommoditypricessmalltrendsandbigvariability AT mcdermottcjohn thelongrunbehaviorofcommoditypricessmalltrendsandbigvariability |