How risky is college investment?:

This paper is motivated by the fact that nearly half of US college students drop out without earning a bachelor's degree. Its objective is to quantify how much uncertainty college entrants face about their graduation outcomes. To do so, we develop a quantitative model of college choice. The inn...

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Hauptverfasser: Hendricks, Lutz (VerfasserIn), Leukhina, Oksana (VerfasserIn)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: München CESifo 2015
Schriftenreihe:CESifo working paper 5203 : Category 5, Economics of education
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Zusammenfassung:This paper is motivated by the fact that nearly half of US college students drop out without earning a bachelor's degree. Its objective is to quantify how much uncertainty college entrants face about their graduation outcomes. To do so, we develop a quantitative model of college choice. The innovation is to model in detail how students progress towards a college degree. The model is calibrated using transcript and financial data. We find that more than half of college entrants can predict whether they will graduate with at least 80% probability. As a result, stylized policies that insure students against the financial risks associated with uncertain graduation have little value for the majority of college entrants.
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