Applied mathematical demography:
Gespeichert in:
Hauptverfasser: | , |
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Format: | Buch |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
New York
Springer
2005
|
Ausgabe: | 3. ed. |
Schriftenreihe: | Statistics for biology and health
|
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | Auch als Internetausgabe |
Beschreibung: | XXIII, 555 S. graph. Darst. |
ISBN: | 0387225374 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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adam_text | CONTENTS PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITION VII PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION
XI PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION XIII ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XVII A WORD ABOUT
NOTATION XXV 1 INTRODUCTION: POPULATION WITHOUT AGE 1 1.1 DEFINITIONS OF
RATE OF INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2 DOUBLING TIME AND
HALF-LIFE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.3 ONE-SEX VERSUS TWO-SEX
MODELS: DESCENDANTS OF THE PILGRIM FATHERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . 9 1.4 HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE LIVED ON THE EARTH? . . . . .
. . 11 1.5 A MIXTURE OF POPULATIONS HAVING DIFFERENT RATES OF INCREASE .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.6 RATE OF
INCREASE CHANGING OVER TIME . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.7 LOGISTIC
INCREASE AND EXPLOSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 1.8 THE STALLED
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.9 DIFFERENTIAL
FERTILITY DUE TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.10 MATRICES IN DEMOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . 26 XX CONTENTS 2 THE LIFE TABLE 29 2.1 DEFINITION OF
LIFE TABLE FUNCTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.2 LIFE TABLES BASED
ON DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2.3 FURTHER SMALL
CORRECTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 2.4 PERIOD AND COHORT
TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.5 FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.6 CAUSE-DELETED TABLES AND
MULTIPLE DECREMENT . . . . . . 42 2.7 THE LIFE TABLE AS A UNIFYING
TECHNIQUE IN DEMOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 46 3 THE MATRIX MODEL FRAMEWORK 48 3.1 THE LESLIE MATRIX . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3.2 PROJECTION: THE SIMPLEST FORM OF
ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . 51 3.3 THE LESLIE MATRIX AND THE LIFE TABLE . .
. . . . . . . . . 55 3.4 ASSUMPTIONS: PROJECTION VERSUS FORECASTING . .
. . . . . 62 3.5 STATE VARIABLES AND ALTERNATIVES TO AGE-CLASSIFICATION
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 3.6 AGE AS A STATE
VARIABLE: WHEN DOES IT FAIL? . . . . . . . 65 3.7 THE LIFE CYCLE GRAPH .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 3.8 THE MATRIX MODEL . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4 MORTALITY COMPARISONS; THE
MALE-FEMALE RATIO 71 4.1 THE MULTIPLICITY OF INDEX NUMBERS . . . . . . .
. . . . . 73 4.2 SHOULD WE INDEX DEATH RATES OR SURVIVORSHIPS? . . . . .
76 4.3 EFFECT ON O E 0 OF CHANGE IN µ ( X ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 78 4.4 EVERYBODY DIES PREMATURELY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 5
FIXED REGIME OF MORTALITY AND FERTILITY 93 5.1 STABLE THEORY . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 5.2 POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATED
FROM ONE CENSUS . . . . . 97 5.3 MEAN AGE IN THE STABLE POPULATION . . .
. . . . . . . . . 103 5.4 RATE OF INCREASE FROM THE FRACTION UNDER 25 .
. . . . . . 107 5.5 BIRTH RATE AND RATE OF INCREASE ESTIMATED FOR A
STABLE POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 5.6
SEVERAL WAYS OF USING THE AGE DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . 111 5.7
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 5.8
PROMOTION WITHIN ORGANIZATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 6 BIRTH AND
POPULATION INCREASE FROM THE LIFE TABLE 127 6.1 THE CHARACTERISTIC
EQUATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 6.2 A VARIANT FORM OF THE
CHARACTERISTIC EQUATION . . . . . 133 6.3 PERTURBATION ANALYSIS OF THE
INTRINSIC RATE . . . . . . . . 135 6.4 ARBITRARY PATTERN OF BIRTH RATE
DECLINE . . . . . . . . . 138 6.5 DROP IN BIRTHS REQUIRED TO OFFSET A
DROP IN DEATHS . . . 141 6.6 MOMENTS OF DYING AND LIVING POPULATIONS . .
. . . . . . 144 CONTENTS XXI 7 BIRTH AND POPULATION INCREASE FROM MATRIX
POPULATION MODELS 148 7.1 SOLUTION OF THE PROJECTION EQUATION . . . . .
. . . . . . . 148 7.2 THE STRONG ERGODIC THEOREM . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . 155 7.3 TRANSIENT DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE . . . . . . . . . . .
165 7.4 COMPUTATION OF EIGENVALUES AND EIGENVECTORS . . . . . . 175 7.5
MATHEMATICAL FORMULATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 8
REPRODUCTIVE VALUE FROM THE LIFE TABLE 183 8.1 CONCEPT OF REPRODUCTIVE
VALUE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 8.2 ULTIMATE EFFECT OF SMALL
OUT-MIGRATION OCCURRING IN A GIVEN YEAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . 190 8.3 EFFECT OF CONTINUING BIRTH CONTROL AND
STERILIZATION . . . 191 8.4 LARGE CHANGE IN REGIME . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . 193 8.5 EMIGRATION AS A POLICY APPLIED YEAR AFTER YEAR . .
. . . 194 8.6 THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH . . . . . . . . . . 196
8.7 ELIMINATING HEART DISEASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 8.8
THE STABLE EQUIVALENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 8.9
REPRODUCTIVE VALUE AS A CONTRIBUTION TO FUTURE BIRTHS . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 9 REPRODUCTIVE VALUE FROM MATRIX
MODELS 208 9.1 REPRODUCTIVE VALUE AS AN EIGENVECTOR . . . . . . . . . .
. 208 9.2 THE STABLE EQUIVALENT POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
10 UNDERSTANDING POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS 216 10.1 ACCOUNTING FOR AGE
DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 10.2 MORE WOMEN THAN MEN .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 10.3 AGE AT MARRIAGE . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 10.4 THE FOREIGN-BORN AND INTERNAL
MIGRANTS . . . . . . . . . 236 10.5 HUMAN STOCKS AND FLOWS . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . 238 10.6 THE DEMOGRAPHY OF ORGANIZATIONS . . . . .
. . . . . . . . 241 11 MARKOV CHAINS FOR INDIVIDUAL LIFE HISTORIES 245
11.1 A = T + F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
11.2 LIFETIME EVENT PROBABILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
11.3 AGE-SPECIFIC TRAITS FROM STAGE-SPECIFIC MODELS . . . . . 253 12
PROJECTION AND FORECASTING 268 12.1 UNAVOIDABLE AND IMPOSSIBLE . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . 268 12.2 THE TECHNIQUE OF PROJECTION . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . 272 12.3 APPLICATIONS OF PROJECTION . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . 278 12.4 THE SEARCH FOR CONSTANCIES . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . 282 12.5 FEATURES OF FORECASTING AND FORECASTING ERROR . .
. . . . 287 12.6 THE COMPONENTS OF FORECASTING ERROR EX ANTE . . . . .
292 XXII CONTENTS 12.7 EX POST EVALUATION OF POINT ESTIMATES . . . . . .
. . . . 296 12.8 A DIVISION OF LABOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . 299 12.9 INTERVAL ESTIMATES AS CURRENTLY PROVIDED . . . . . . . .
. 301 13 PERTURBATION ANALYSIS OF MATRIX MODELS 303 13.1 EIGENVALUE
SENSITIVITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 13.2 ELASTICITY
ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317 13.3
SENSITIVITIES OF EIGENVECTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321 13.4
LIFE TABLE RESPONSE EXPERIMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 13.5 FIXED
DESIGNS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 13.6 RANDOM
DESIGNS AND VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION . . . . . . 329 13.7 REGRESSION
DESIGNS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 13.8 PROSPECTIVE
AND RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSES . . . . . . . . . . 333 14 SOME TYPES OF
INSTABILITY 335 14.1 ABSOLUTE CHANGE IN MORTALITY THE SAME AT ALL AGES .
. . 335 14.2 PROPORTIONAL CHANGE IN MORTALITY . . . . . . . . . . . . .
338 14.3 CHANGING BIRTH RATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
341 14.4 ANNOUNCED PERIOD BIRTH RATE TOO HIGH . . . . . . . . . 343 14.5
BACKWARD POPULATION PROJECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348 14.6 THE
TIME TO STABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352 14.7
RETIREMENT PENSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 14.8 THE
DEMOGRAPHY OF EDUCATIONAL ORGANIZATION . . . . . . 361 14.9 TWO LEVELS
OF STUDENTS AND TEACHERS . . . . . . . . . . . 363 14.10 MOBILITY IN AN
UNSTABLE POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 14.11 THE EASTERLIN
EFFECT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 15 THE DEMOGRAPHIC
THEORY OF KINSHIP 370 15.1 PROBABILITY OF LIVING ANCESTORS . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . 372 15.2 DESCENDANTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . 379 15.3 SISTERS AND AUNTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . 381 15.4 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF AGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . 386 15.5 CHANGING RATES OF BIRTH AND DEATH . . . . . . . . . . . .
387 15.6 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
388 15.7 DERIVING RATES FROM GENEALOGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
15.8 INCEST TABOO AND RATE OF INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
15.9 BIAS IMPOSED BY AGE DIFFERENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 16
MICRODEMOGRAPHY 399 16.1 BIRTHS AVERTED BY CONTRACEPTION . . . . . . . .
. . . . . 399 16.2 MEASUREMENT OF FECUNDITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . 410 16.3 THREE-CHILD FAMILIES CONSTITUTE A POPULATION EXPLOSION .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 16.4 A
FAMILY-BUILDING TO AVOID EXTINCTION . . . . . . . . . . 427 16.5 SEX
PREFERENCE AND THE BIRTH RATE . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430 CONTENTS
XXIII 16.6 PARENTAL CONTROL OVER SEX OF CHILDREN . . . . . . . . . . .
433 16.7 MEAN FAMILY SIZE FROM ORDER-OF-BIRTH DISTRIBUTION . . . 439
16.8 PARITY PROGRESSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440
16.9 LOWER MORTALITY AND INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 17
THE MULTI-STATE MODEL 444 17.1 SINGLE DECREMENT AND INCREMENT-DECREMENT
. . . . . . . 446 17.2 THE KOLMOGOROV EQUATION . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . 449 17.3 EXPECTED TIME IN THE SEVERAL STATES . . . . . . . . . .
. 452 17.4 PROJECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 455 17.5 TRANSITION VERSUS INSTANTANEOUS PROBABILITY OF MOVING . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456 17.6 STABLE
POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459 18 FAMILY
DEMOGRAPHY 461 18.1 DEFINITIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . 462 18.2 KINSHIP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . 464 18.3 THE LIFE CYCLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . 469 18.4 HOUSEHOLD SIZE DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . 471 18.5 ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL THEORY . . . . . .
. . 474 18.6 FAMILY POLICY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 475 19 HETEROGENEITY AND SELECTION IN POPULATION ANALYSIS 477 19.1
CONDITIONING AND THE INTERPRETATION OF STATISTICAL DATA . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479 19.2 HETEROGENEITY AND
SELECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481 19.3 APPLICATION TO
MORTALITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482 19.4 MODELLING
HETEROGENEITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486 19.5
EXPERIMENTATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 492 20
EPILOGUE: HOW DO WE KNOW THE FACTS OF DEMOGRAPHY? 494 20.1 PROPORTIONS
OF OLD PEOPLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496 20.2 PROMOTION IN
ORGANIZATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 20.3 NO MODEL, NO
UNDERSTANDING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503 20.4 TOO MANY MODELS . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504 20.5 DEVELOPMENT AND
POPULATION INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . 504 20.6 HOW NATURE COVERS HER
TRACKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 508 20.7 THE PSYCHOLOGY OF RESEARCH .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510 BIBLIOGRAPHY 513 INDEX 551
|
any_adam_object | 1 |
author | Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Caswell, Hal |
author_GND | (DE-588)170249875 |
author_facet | Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Caswell, Hal |
author_role | aut aut |
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building | Verbundindex |
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callnumber-search | HB849.51 |
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callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
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discipline | Soziologie Raumplanung Wirtschaftswissenschaften Geographie |
edition | 3. ed. |
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genre | 1\p (DE-588)4006432-3 Bibliografie gnd-content |
genre_facet | Bibliografie |
id | DE-604.BV019657924 |
illustrated | Illustrated |
indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:02:20Z |
institution | BVB |
isbn | 0387225374 |
language | English |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-012986402 |
oclc_num | 249651645 |
open_access_boolean | |
owner | DE-859 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-634 |
owner_facet | DE-859 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-634 |
physical | XXIII, 555 S. graph. Darst. |
publishDate | 2005 |
publishDateSearch | 2005 |
publishDateSort | 2005 |
publisher | Springer |
record_format | marc |
series2 | Statistics for biology and health |
spelling | Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Verfasser (DE-588)170249875 aut Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell 3. ed. New York Springer 2005 XXIII, 555 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Statistics for biology and health Auch als Internetausgabe Demographie - Mathematisches Modell Demographie / Wissenschaftliche Methode / Statistische Methode / Theorie Datenverarbeitung Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models Matrices Matrices Data processing Population biology Mathematical models Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd rswk-swf Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4006432-3 Bibliografie gnd-content Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 s Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 s 2\p DE-604 Caswell, Hal Verfasser aut SWB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012986402&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
spellingShingle | Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Caswell, Hal Applied mathematical demography Demographie - Mathematisches Modell Demographie / Wissenschaftliche Methode / Statistische Methode / Theorie Datenverarbeitung Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models Matrices Matrices Data processing Population biology Mathematical models Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4011412-0 (DE-588)4129436-1 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4006432-3 |
title | Applied mathematical demography |
title_auth | Applied mathematical demography |
title_exact_search | Applied mathematical demography |
title_full | Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell |
title_fullStr | Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell |
title_full_unstemmed | Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell |
title_short | Applied mathematical demography |
title_sort | applied mathematical demography |
topic | Demographie - Mathematisches Modell Demographie / Wissenschaftliche Methode / Statistische Methode / Theorie Datenverarbeitung Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models Matrices Matrices Data processing Population biology Mathematical models Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
topic_facet | Demographie - Mathematisches Modell Demographie / Wissenschaftliche Methode / Statistische Methode / Theorie Datenverarbeitung Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models Matrices Matrices Data processing Population biology Mathematical models Demographie Sozialanthropologie Bevölkerungsentwicklung Bibliografie |
url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012986402&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
work_keys_str_mv | AT keyfitznathan appliedmathematicaldemography AT caswellhal appliedmathematicaldemography |