Applied mathematical demography:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY
Springer
2005
|
| Ausgabe: | 3. ed. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Statistics for biology and health
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BTU01 TUM01 UBA01 UBR01 UBT01 UPA01 Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (XXIII, 555 S.) graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780387274096 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/b139042 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface to the Third Edition vii
Preface to the Second Edition xi
Preface to the First Edition xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
A Word About Notation xxv
1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1
1.1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 2
1.2 Doubling Time and Half Life 3
1.3 One Sex Versus Two Sex Models: Descendants of the
Pilgrim Fathers 9
1.4 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 11
1.5 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of
Increase 13
1.6 Rate of Increase Changing over Time 18
1.7 Logistic Increase and Explosion 20
1.8 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23
1.9 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic
Transition 25
1.10 Matrices in Demography 26
xx Contents
2 The Life Table 29
2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 29
2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 31
2.3 Further Small Corrections 39
2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 40
2.5 Financial Calculations 41
2.6 Cause Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 42
2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in
Demography 46
3 The Matrix Model Framework 48
3.1 The Leslie Matrix 49
3.2 Projection: The Simplest Form of Analysis 51
3.3 The Leslie Matrix and the Life Table 55
3.4 Assumptions: Projection Versus Forecasting 62
3.5 State Variables and Alternatives to
Age Classification 64
3.6 Age as a State Variable: When Does it Fail? 65
3.7 The Life Cycle Graph 67
3.8 The Matrix Model 69
4 Mortality Comparisons; The Male Female Ratio 71
4.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 73
4.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 76
4.3 Effect on e0 of Change in fi(x) 78
4.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 88
5 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility 93
5.1 Stable Theory 94
5.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 97
5.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 103
5.4 Rate of Increase from the Fraction Under 25 107
5.5 Birth Rate and Rate of Increase Estimated for a
Stable Population 109
5.6 Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution Ill
5.7 Sensitivity Analysis 118
5.8 Promotion Within Organizations 121
6 Birth and Population Increase from the Life Table 127
6.1 The Characteristic Equation 128
6.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 133
6.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 135
6.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 138
6.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths . . . 141
6.6 Moments of Dying and Living Populations 144
Contents xxi
7 Birth and Population Increase from Matrix Population
Models 148
7.1 Solution of the Projection Equation 148
7.2 The Strong Ergodic Theorem 155
7.3 Transient Dynamics and Convergence 165
7.4 Computation of Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors 175
7.5 Mathematical Formulations 17G
8 Reproductive Value from the Life Table 183
8.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 184
8.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out Migration Occurring in a
Given Year 190
8.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization . . . 191
8.4 Large Change in Regime 193
8.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 194
8.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 196
8.7 Eliminating Heart Disease 199
8.8 The Stable Equivalent 200
8.9 Reproductive Value as a Contribution to
Future Births 206
9 Reproductive Value from Matrix Models 208
9.1 Reproductive Value as an Eigenvector 208
9.2 The Stable Equivalent Population 213
10 Understanding Population Characteristics 216
10.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 217
10.2 More Women Than Men 223
10.3 Age at Marriage 225
10.4 The Foreign Born and Internal Migrants 230
10.5 Human Stocks and Flows 238
10.6 The Demography of Organizations 241
11 Markov Chains for Individual Life Histories 245
11.1 A = T + F 245
11.2 Lifetime Event Probabilities 251
11.3 Age Specific Traits From Stage Specific Models 253
12 Projection and Forecasting 268
12.1 Unavoidable and Impossible 2(i8
12.2 The Technique of Projection 272
12.3 Applications of Projection 278
12.4 The Search for Constancies 282
12.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error 287
12.6 The Components of Forecasting Error E.r Ante 292
xxii Contents
12.7 Ex Post Evaluation of Point Estimates 296
12.8 A Division of Labor 299
12.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided 301
13 Perturbation Analysis of Matrix Models 303
13.1 Eigenvalue Sensitivity 305
13.2 Elasticity Analysis 317
13.3 Sensitivities of Eigenvectors 321
13.4 Life Table Response Experiments 325
13.5 Fixed Designs 327
13.6 Random Designs and Variance Decomposition 329
13.7 Regression Designs 332
13.8 Prospective and Retrospective Analyses 333
14 Some Types of Instability 335
14.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages . . . 335
14.2 Proportional Change in Mortality 338
14.3 Changing Birth Rates 341
14.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High 343
14.5 Backward Population Projection 348
14.6 The Time to Stability 352
14.7 Retirement Pensions 358
14.8 The Demography of Educational Organization 361
14.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers 363
14.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population 365
14.11 The Easterlin Effect 366
15 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 370
15.1 Probability of Living Ancestors 372
15.2 Descendants 379
15.3 Sisters and Aunts 381
15.4 Mean and Variance of Ages 386
15.5 Changing Rates of Birth and Death 387
15.6 Sensitivity Analysis 388
15.7 Deriving Rates from Genealogies 394
15.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase 396
15.9 Bias Imposed by Age Difference 397
16 Microdemography 399
16.1 Births Averted by Contraception 399
16.2 Measurement of Fecundity 410
16.3 Three Child Families Constitute a Population
Explosion 425
16.4 A Family Building to Avoid Extinction 427
16.5 Sex Preference and the Birth Rate 430
Contents xxiii
16.6 Parental Control over Sex of Children 433
16.7 Mean Family Size from Order of Birth Distribution . . . 439
16.8 Parity Progression 440
16.9 Lower Mortality and Increase 441
17 The Multi State Model 444
17.1 Single Decrement and Increment Decrement 446
17.2 The Kolmogorov Equation 449
17.3 Expected Time in the Several States 452
17.4 Projection 455
17.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of
Moving 456
17.6 Stable Population 459
18 Family Demography 461
18.1 Definitions 462
18.2 Kinship 464
18.3 The Life Cycle 469
18.4 Household Size Distribution 471
18.5 Economic. Political, and Biological Theory 474
18.6 Family Policy 475
19 Heterogeneity and Selection in Population Analysis 477
19.1 Conditioning and the Interpretation of Statistical
Data 479
19.2 Heterogeneity and Selection 481
19.3 Application to Mortality 482
19.4 Modelling Heterogeneity 486
19.5 Experimentation 492
20 Epilogue: How Do We Know the Facts of Demography? 494
20.1 Proportions of Old People 496
20.2 Promotion in Organizations 501
20.3 No Model. No Understanding 503
20.4 Too Many Models 504
20.5 Development and Population Increase 504
20.6 How Nature Covers Her Tracks 508
20.7 The Psychology of Research 510
Bibliography 513
Index 551
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Preface to the Third Edition vii
Preface to the Second Edition xi
Preface to the First Edition xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
A Word About Notation xxv
1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1
1.1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 2
1.2 Doubling Time and Half Life 3
1.3 One Sex Versus Two Sex Models: Descendants of the
Pilgrim Fathers 9
1.4 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 11
1.5 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of
Increase 13
1.6 Rate of Increase Changing over Time 18
1.7 Logistic Increase and Explosion 20
1.8 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23
1.9 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic
Transition 25
1.10 Matrices in Demography 26
xx Contents
2 The Life Table 29
2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 29
2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 31
2.3 Further Small Corrections 39
2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 40
2.5 Financial Calculations 41
2.6 Cause Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 42
2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in
Demography 46
3 The Matrix Model Framework 48
3.1 The Leslie Matrix 49
3.2 Projection: The Simplest Form of Analysis 51
3.3 The Leslie Matrix and the Life Table 55
3.4 Assumptions: Projection Versus Forecasting 62
3.5 State Variables and Alternatives to
Age Classification 64
3.6 Age as a State Variable: When Does it Fail? 65
3.7 The Life Cycle Graph 67
3.8 The Matrix Model 69
4 Mortality Comparisons; The Male Female Ratio 71
4.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 73
4.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 76
4.3 Effect on e0 of Change in fi(x) 78
4.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 88
5 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility 93
5.1 Stable Theory 94
5.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 97
5.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 103
5.4 Rate of Increase from the Fraction Under 25 107
5.5 Birth Rate and Rate of Increase Estimated for a
Stable Population 109
5.6 Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution Ill
5.7 Sensitivity Analysis 118
5.8 Promotion Within Organizations 121
6 Birth and Population Increase from the Life Table 127
6.1 The Characteristic Equation 128
6.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 133
6.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 135
6.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 138
6.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths . . . 141
6.6 Moments of Dying and Living Populations 144
Contents xxi
7 Birth and Population Increase from Matrix Population
Models 148
7.1 Solution of the Projection Equation 148
7.2 The Strong Ergodic Theorem 155
7.3 Transient Dynamics and Convergence 165
7.4 Computation of Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors 175
7.5 Mathematical Formulations 17G
8 Reproductive Value from the Life Table 183
8.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 184
8.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out Migration Occurring in a
Given Year 190
8.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization . . . 191
8.4 Large Change in Regime 193
8.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 194
8.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 196
8.7 Eliminating Heart Disease 199
8.8 The Stable Equivalent 200
8.9 Reproductive Value as a Contribution to
Future Births 206
9 Reproductive Value from Matrix Models 208
9.1 Reproductive Value as an Eigenvector 208
9.2 The Stable Equivalent Population 213
10 Understanding Population Characteristics 216
10.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 217
10.2 More Women Than Men 223
10.3 Age at Marriage 225
10.4 The Foreign Born and Internal Migrants 230
10.5 Human Stocks and Flows 238
10.6 The Demography of Organizations 241
11 Markov Chains for Individual Life Histories 245
11.1 A = T + F 245
11.2 Lifetime Event Probabilities 251
11.3 Age Specific Traits From Stage Specific Models 253
12 Projection and Forecasting 268
12.1 Unavoidable and Impossible 2(i8
12.2 The Technique of Projection 272
12.3 Applications of Projection 278
12.4 The Search for Constancies 282
12.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error 287
12.6 The Components of Forecasting Error E.r Ante 292
xxii Contents
12.7 Ex Post Evaluation of Point Estimates 296
12.8 A Division of Labor 299
12.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided 301
13 Perturbation Analysis of Matrix Models 303
13.1 Eigenvalue Sensitivity 305
13.2 Elasticity Analysis 317
13.3 Sensitivities of Eigenvectors 321
13.4 Life Table Response Experiments 325
13.5 Fixed Designs 327
13.6 Random Designs and Variance Decomposition 329
13.7 Regression Designs 332
13.8 Prospective and Retrospective Analyses 333
14 Some Types of Instability 335
14.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages . . . 335
14.2 Proportional Change in Mortality 338
14.3 Changing Birth Rates 341
14.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High 343
14.5 Backward Population Projection 348
14.6 The Time to Stability 352
14.7 Retirement Pensions 358
14.8 The Demography of Educational Organization 361
14.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers 363
14.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population 365
14.11 The Easterlin Effect 366
15 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 370
15.1 Probability of Living Ancestors 372
15.2 Descendants 379
15.3 Sisters and Aunts 381
15.4 Mean and Variance of Ages 386
15.5 Changing Rates of Birth and Death 387
15.6 Sensitivity Analysis 388
15.7 Deriving Rates from Genealogies 394
15.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase 396
15.9 Bias Imposed by Age Difference 397
16 Microdemography 399
16.1 Births Averted by Contraception 399
16.2 Measurement of Fecundity 410
16.3 Three Child Families Constitute a Population
Explosion 425
16.4 A Family Building to Avoid Extinction 427
16.5 Sex Preference and the Birth Rate 430
Contents xxiii
16.6 Parental Control over Sex of Children 433
16.7 Mean Family Size from Order of Birth Distribution . . . 439
16.8 Parity Progression 440
16.9 Lower Mortality and Increase 441
17 The Multi State Model 444
17.1 Single Decrement and Increment Decrement 446
17.2 The Kolmogorov Equation 449
17.3 Expected Time in the Several States 452
17.4 Projection 455
17.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of
Moving 456
17.6 Stable Population 459
18 Family Demography 461
18.1 Definitions 462
18.2 Kinship 464
18.3 The Life Cycle 469
18.4 Household Size Distribution 471
18.5 Economic. Political, and Biological Theory 474
18.6 Family Policy 475
19 Heterogeneity and Selection in Population Analysis 477
19.1 Conditioning and the Interpretation of Statistical
Data 479
19.2 Heterogeneity and Selection 481
19.3 Application to Mortality 482
19.4 Modelling Heterogeneity 486
19.5 Experimentation 492
20 Epilogue: How Do We Know the Facts of Demography? 494
20.1 Proportions of Old People 496
20.2 Promotion in Organizations 501
20.3 No Model. No Understanding 503
20.4 Too Many Models 504
20.5 Development and Population Increase 504
20.6 How Nature Covers Her Tracks 508
20.7 The Psychology of Research 510
Bibliography 513
Index 551 |
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| discipline_str_mv | Soziologie Raumplanung Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften Geographie |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/b139042 |
| edition | 3. ed. |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| genre | 1\p (DE-588)4006432-3 Bibliografie gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Bibliografie |
| id | DE-604.BV022293925 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T16:52:45Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:54:21Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780387274096 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015504042 |
| oclc_num | 249651645 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-634 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-703 DE-83 |
| owner_facet | DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-634 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-703 DE-83 |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (XXIII, 555 S.) graph. Darst. |
| psigel | ZDB-2-SMA |
| publishDate | 2005 |
| publishDateSearch | 2005 |
| publishDateSort | 2005 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Statistics for biology and health |
| spelling | Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Verfasser (DE-588)170249875 aut Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell 3. ed. New York, NY Springer 2005 1 Online-Ressource (XXIII, 555 S.) graph. Darst. txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Statistics for biology and health Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd rswk-swf Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4006432-3 Bibliografie gnd-content Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 s Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 s 2\p DE-604 Caswell, Hal Verfasser aut Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 0-387-22537-4 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-0-387-22537-1 https://doi.org/10.1007/b139042 Verlag Volltext HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015504042&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Caswell, Hal Applied mathematical demography Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4011412-0 (DE-588)4129436-1 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4006432-3 |
| title | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_auth | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_exact_search | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_full | Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell |
| title_fullStr | Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell |
| title_full_unstemmed | Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell |
| title_short | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_sort | applied mathematical demography |
| topic | Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Demographie Sozialanthropologie Bevölkerungsentwicklung Mathematisches Modell Bibliografie |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/b139042 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015504042&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT keyfitznathan appliedmathematicaldemography AT caswellhal appliedmathematicaldemography |