Decision modeling in policy management: an introduction to the analytic concepts
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boston [u.a.]
Kluwer Acad. Publ.
1999
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXIV, 349 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0792383303 0792383311 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Decision modeling in policy management |b an introduction to the analytic concepts |c Giampiero E. G. Beroggi |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making -- Mathematical models | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xvij
Introduction xjx
CHAPTER I: THE PROBLEM SOLVING PROCESS
1. The Context of Problem Solving 1
1.1 What is a Problem? 1
1.2 The Problem Solving Process in Policy Management 3
2. Problem Identification: The Elements of Decision Making 6
2.1 Actors and Decision Makers 6
2.2 Attribute, Criterion, Objective, and Goal 8
2.3 Actions and Decision Variables 14
2.4 Uncertainties, States, and Scenarios 16
3. Problem Definition 17
3.1 Evaluation Measures 17
3.2 Measurement Scales 20
3.3 Preference Elicitation 22
3.4 Binary Preference Relations 24
4. Problem Solution 26
4.1 Preference Aggregation 26
4.2 Dominant and Efficient Alternatives 27
4.3 Preference Graphs 28
4.4 Search for Solutions 30
4.5 Sensitivity Analysis 3 1
5. Summary 32
6. Problems 33
CHAPTER II: THE ANALYTIC MODELING PROCESS
1. From Problem to Model 36
1.1 The Model as Abstraction of Reality 36
1.2 The Analytic Modeling Process 37
Decision Modeling in Policy Management Page vii
2. Structural Models 38
2.1 Definitions and Elements 38
2.2 Actions 41
2.3 Criteria 43
2.4 Scenarios 44
2.5 Decision Makers 45
3. Formal Models 46
3.1 General Aspects 46
3.2 Descriptive vs. Normative Preference Elicitation 47
A) Descriptive Preference Elicitation 48
B) Normative Preference Elicitation 49
3.3 Single versus Multiaction Decision Problems 51
4. Resolution Models 53
4.1 General Resolution Approach 53
4.2 Resolution Complexity 55
5. Interactive Complete Strong Preference Ordering 56
5.1 Structural Model 56
5.2 Formal Model 57
5.3 Resolution Model 58
6. Summary 60
7. Problems 61
CHAPTER III: DESCRIPTIVE ASSESSMENT CRITERIA AND WEIGHTS
1. Relative Intensities and Weights 64
1.1 Consistent Assessment 64
1.2 Relative Importance and Ratio Scale 67
1.3 Resolution of Inconsistencies 69
2. Hierarchical Decomposition of Criteria 4
2.1 Structural Model 74
2.2 Formal Model 75
3. Aggregation of Criteria 76
3.1 Differentiation Power of Criteria
3.2 Computational Aspects
3.3 An Example of Dimension Reduction and Interpretation
4. Summary and Further Readings B
5. Problems 85
Page viii Decision Modeling in Policy Management
CHAPTER IV: DESCRIPTIVE ASSESSMENT
ALTERNATIVES AND RANKING
1. Structural Model of Descriptive Approaches 8 8
1.1 Basic Concepts 88
1.2 Preference Aggregation: Basic Principles 90
2. Formal and Resolution Models 92
2.1 Ordinal and Interval Scales 92
2.2 Aggregation of Preference Values 94
A) Preference Aggregation with Type A Preference Function 95
B) Preference Aggregation with Type B Preference Function 96
2.3 Incomplete Preference Ranking of Alternatives 98
2.4 Ratio Scale 100
A) Relative Preference Assessment 100
B) Absolute Preference Assessment 101
2.5 Formalizing Structural and Content Goals 103
3. Sensitivity Analysis 104
3.1 Structural Instability 105
3.2 Functional Instability 107
3.3 Numerical Instability 109
4. Summary and Further Readings 110
5. Problems 111
CHAPTER V: VALUES AND NORMATIVE CHOICE
1. The Structural Model 112
1.1 Conceptual Aspects 11 2
1.2 The Structure 114
2. The Formal Model of Value Theory 11 5
2.1 Motivation and Axioms of Value Theory 115
2.2 Preferential Independence 1 1 8
A) Two Criteria 1 1 9
B) Three Criteria 120
C) More than three Criteria 121
2.3 Additive Value Functions 121
2.4 Linear Value Functions and Perfect Complements 123
2.5 Value Functions Over Time Streams 125
2.6 Interpretation of 2 Dimensional Value Functions 126
2.7 Interpretation of Component Value Functions 128
Decision Modeling in Policy Management Page ix
3. The Resolution Model 129
3.1 The General Approach 129
3.2 Assessment of Mutual Preferential Independence 130
3.3 Elicitation of 2 Dimensional Value Functions 131
3.4 Elicitation of Component Value Function 132
3.5 Assessment of Scaling Constants 134
3.6 Solution Search 136
A) Convex Set and Efficient Frontier 136
B) Evaluation of Explicit versus Search for Implicit Alternatives 138
C) Real Valued Solutions 139
3.7 Sensitivity Analysis 140
4. Summary and Further Readings 141
5. Problems 142
CHAPTER VI: CHOICES UNDER UNCERTAINTY
1. Decision Making Under Complete Uncertainty 144
1.1 Structural Model 144
1.2 Formal Model 145
A) Wald s MaxMin Rule 146
B) Savage s MinMax Regret Rule 147
C) Hurwicz s Optimism Pessimism Index 148
D) Laplace s Principle of Insufficient Reasoning 148
1.3 Resolution Model 149
2. Decision Making Under Risk 149
2.1 Structural Model 149
2.2 Formal Model: Concept of Probability Theory 151
A) Types of Probability 151
B) Probabilistic Independence 153
C) Arc Reversal (2 dimensional) 154
D) Arc Reversal (3 dimensional) 156
2.3 Decision Rules 161
A) Individual Risk 161
B) Collective Risk 161
C) Group Risk 164
2.4 Aggregation of Linguistic Variables 166
2.5 Resolution Model 169
3. Summary and Further Readings 171
4. Problems 172
CHAPTER VII: UNCERTAINTY AND NORMATIVE CHOICE
1. The Structural Model for Decision Making Under Uncertainty 174
1.1 Conceptual Aspects I74
1.2 The Structural Model 177
Page x Decision Modeling in Policy Management
2. The Formal Model of Utility Theory 177
2.1 Motivation of Utility Theory 177
2.2 The Axioms of Utility Theory 179
2.3 Assessing Component Utility Functions 181
2.4 Interpretation of the Utility Function and Risk Attitudes 185 •
2.5 Utility Independence 186 !
2.6 Multidimensional Utility Functions 188
A) Multilinear Utility Functions 188 .
B) Multiplicative Utility Functions 189 ;
C) Additive Utility Functions 190
3. The Resolution Model 191 i
3.1 The General Approach 191 [
3.2 Assessment of Mutual Utility Independence 193
3.3 Assessment of Scaling Constants and Selection of Model 194
3.4 Assessment of Component Utility Functions and ¦
Evaluation of Alternatives 195
3.5 Comments about Utility Theory 197
4. Summary and Further Readings 198
5. Problems 200
CHAPTER VIII: SEQUENTIAL DECISION MAKING !
1. The Structure of Sequential Decisions 202 ;
1.1 Concept of Probabilistic Influence Diagrams 202 i
1.2 The Meaning of Influences in Probabilistic Influence Diagrams 204
2. The Formal Model 209
2.1 Defining Probabilistic Relations 209
2.2 Decision Trees 210
2.3 Probabilistic Influence Diagrams 211
3. The Resolution Model 21 3
3.1 Resolution Steps 213
A) Barren Node Removal 215
B) Arc Reversal 215
C) Chance Node Removal 217
D) Decision Node Removal 220
3.2 Node Elimination Algorithm 221
4. Sensitivity Analysis 224
4.1 Probabilistic Sensitivity 224
4.2 Value of Information 225
5. Summary and Further Readings 226
6. Problems 227
Decision Modeling in Policy Management Page xi
CHAPTER IX: MULTI ACTOR DECISION MAKING
1. Structural Models in Multi Actor Settings 232
1.1 Conceptual Aspects 232
1.2 Finding the Best Alternative in Group Decision Making 232
1.3 Finding the Best Alternative for each Individual Decision Maker 233
2. Formal and Resolution Models in Group Decision Making 234
2.1 Aggregation of Ordinal Assessments 234
A) Voting Principles 234
B) Statistical Approaches 236
2.2 Aggregation of Cardinal Assessments 240
A) Aggregation Process 240
B) Aggregation of Normative Evaluations 241
C) Aggregation of Descriptive Evaluations 243
2.3 Aggregation of Linguistic Assessments 246
A) Aggregation across Criteria 247
B) Aggregation across Decision Makers 248
3. Formal and Resolution Models in Conflict Settings 249
3.1 Two Actor Strictly Competitive Settings 249
A) Pure Strategy Sequential Elimination 250
B) Pure Strategy MinMax Test 251
C) Mixed (Randomized) Strategy Solutions 252
3.2 Conflict Resolution and Negotiation Support 254
A) Non Pareto Optimal Equilibrium 254
B) Pure and Mixed Strategy Equilibrium 256
C) Cooperation in Conflict Situations 256
D) Bargaining (Negotiation) Sets 258
4. Summary and Further Readings 260
5. Problems 261
CHAPTER X: CONSTRAINT BASED POLICY OPTIMIZATION
1. Structural Model 264
1.1 Basic Concepts and Types of Decision Problems 264
1.2 The Structural Model 265
2. Formal Models 266
2.1 Content Goals: Constraints and Aspiration Levels 266
A) Single Criterion Optimization 266
B) Multi Criteria Optimization 272
2.2 Structural Goals: Actions and Content Goals 274
A) Structural Goals referring to Actions 274
B) Structural Goals referring to Content Goals 276
Page xii Decision Modeling in Policy Management
2.3 Additional Examples of Formal Models 278
A) Transportation Planning 278
B) Two Actor Zero Sum Conflicts 279
C) Nurse Scheduling 281
D) Mixing Substances 283
3. Resolution Models 284
3.1 Real Valued Decision Variables 284
A) Theoretical Considerations 284
B) The Simplex Algorithm 285
C) Numerical Example 291
D) Comments about the Simplex Algorithm 292
3.2 Duality and Sensitivity Analysis 293 i
A) General Concept 293
B) Numerical Example 294
3.3 Integer Decision Variables 297
3.4 Binary Decision Variables 298
3.5 Computer Implementation 299
4. Summary and Further Readings 301
5. Problems 302
Solutions to Problems 304
References 334 .
Symbol Index 342
Subject Index 344
Decision Modeling in Policy Management Page xiii
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| spelling | Beroggi, Giampiero E. G. 1960- Verfasser (DE-588)113640633 aut Decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts Giampiero E. G. Beroggi Boston [u.a.] Kluwer Acad. Publ. 1999 XXIV, 349 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Besluitvorming gtt Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Management gtt Mathematisches Modell Decision making -- Mathematical models Management science Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 s Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009816442&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Beroggi, Giampiero E. G. 1960- Decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts Besluitvorming gtt Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Management gtt Mathematisches Modell Decision making -- Mathematical models Management science Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd |
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| title | Decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts |
| title_auth | Decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts |
| title_exact_search | Decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts |
| title_full | Decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts Giampiero E. G. Beroggi |
| title_fullStr | Decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts Giampiero E. G. Beroggi |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts Giampiero E. G. Beroggi |
| title_short | Decision modeling in policy management |
| title_sort | decision modeling in policy management an introduction to the analytic concepts |
| title_sub | an introduction to the analytic concepts |
| topic | Besluitvorming gtt Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Management gtt Mathematisches Modell Decision making -- Mathematical models Management science Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Besluitvorming Kwantitatieve methoden Management Mathematisches Modell Decision making -- Mathematical models Management science Entscheidung Unternehmen |
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