Hysteresis in labor markets? :: evidence from professional long-term forecasts /
We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of e...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
[2019]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/19/114. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (22 pages) |
| ISBN: | 1498315690 1498317154 9781498315692 9781498317153 |
Internformat
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| 505 | 0 | |a Estimation results -- Demand-side shocks -- How closely do forecasters' views of persistence fit the data? | |
| 520 | 3 | |a We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects. | |
| 588 | 0 | |a Online resource; title from PDF title page (IMF, viewed August 30, 2020). | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Employment forecasting. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042919 | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Hysteresis (Economics) |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh95007707 | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Labor market. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89000875 | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Employment (Economic theory) |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042916 | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Emploi |x Prévision. | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Leigh, Daniel, |e author. | |
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| author | Bluedorn, John C. Leigh, Daniel |
| author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/nr2007002721 |
| author_facet | Bluedorn, John C. Leigh, Daniel |
| author_role | aut aut |
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| contents | Estimation results -- Demand-side shocks -- How closely do forecasters' views of persistence fit the data? |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1107659803 |
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| dewey-ones | 331 - Labor economics |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:49:34Z |
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| institution_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n81052755 |
| isbn | 1498315690 1498317154 9781498315692 9781498317153 |
| language | English |
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| series | IMF working paper ; |
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| spelling | Bluedorn, John C., author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/nr2007002721 Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts / by John Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2019] ©2019 1 online resource (22 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Paper ; WP/19/114 Estimation results -- Demand-side shocks -- How closely do forecasters' views of persistence fit the data? We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects. Online resource; title from PDF title page (IMF, viewed August 30, 2020). Employment forecasting. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042919 Hysteresis (Economics) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh95007707 Labor market. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89000875 Employment (Economic theory) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042916 Emploi Prévision. Hystérésis (Économie) Marché du travail. Emploi. employing. aat Employment forecasting fast Hysteresis (Economics) fast Labor market fast Leigh, Daniel, author. International Monetary Fund, issuing body. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n81052755 has work: Hysteresis in labor markets? (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGCB3B4DpMDYYttwPmd4v3 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Bluedorn, John C. Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2019 9781498315692 IMF working paper ; WP/19/114. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBU FWS_PDA_EBU https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=2149511 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Bluedorn, John C. Leigh, Daniel Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts / IMF working paper ; Estimation results -- Demand-side shocks -- How closely do forecasters' views of persistence fit the data? Employment forecasting. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042919 Hysteresis (Economics) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh95007707 Labor market. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89000875 Employment (Economic theory) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042916 Emploi Prévision. Hystérésis (Économie) Marché du travail. Emploi. employing. aat Employment forecasting fast Hysteresis (Economics) fast Labor market fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042919 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh95007707 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89000875 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042916 |
| title | Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts / |
| title_auth | Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts / |
| title_exact_search | Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts / |
| title_full | Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts / by John Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh. |
| title_fullStr | Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts / by John Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts / by John Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh. |
| title_short | Hysteresis in labor markets? : |
| title_sort | hysteresis in labor markets evidence from professional long term forecasts |
| title_sub | evidence from professional long-term forecasts / |
| topic | Employment forecasting. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042919 Hysteresis (Economics) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh95007707 Labor market. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89000875 Employment (Economic theory) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85042916 Emploi Prévision. Hystérésis (Économie) Marché du travail. Emploi. employing. aat Employment forecasting fast Hysteresis (Economics) fast Labor market fast |
| topic_facet | Employment forecasting. Hysteresis (Economics) Labor market. Employment (Economic theory) Emploi Prévision. Hystérésis (Économie) Marché du travail. Emploi. employing. Employment forecasting Labor market |
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