Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises.:
We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2018.
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
no. 18/153. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (54 pages) |
| ISBN: | 1484367855 1484366778 9781484366776 9781484367858 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000cam a2200000 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | ZDB-4-EBU-on1048772425 | ||
| 003 | OCoLC | ||
| 005 | 20241004212047.0 | ||
| 006 | m o d | ||
| 007 | cr |n|---||||| | ||
| 008 | 180818s2018 dcu o 000 0 eng d | ||
| 040 | |a EBLCP |b eng |e pn |c EBLCP |d YDX |d CUY |d MERUC |d OTZ |d CEF |d OCLCQ |d VT2 |d OCLCO |d SFB |d OCLCF |d N$T |d OCLCQ |d OCLCO |d OCLCL |d OCLCQ | ||
| 019 | |a 1047827237 | ||
| 020 | |a 1484367855 | ||
| 020 | |a 1484366778 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781484366776 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781484367858 |q (electronic bk.) | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.5089/9781484366776.001 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1048772425 |z (OCoLC)1047827237 | ||
| 050 | 4 | |a HB3722 |b .C666 2018 | |
| 082 | 7 | |a 338.542 |2 23 | |
| 049 | |a MAIN | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Eberhardt, Markus. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |
| 260 | |a Washington, D.C. : |b International Monetary Fund, |c 2018. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (54 pages) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF Working Papers | |
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Descriptive Analysis; 2.1 Sample; 2.2 Variable Construction and Sources; 2.3 Variable Transformation; 2.4 Event Analysis; 3 Empirical Model and Implementation; 4 Results and Discussion; 4.1 Main results; 4.2 Goodness of Fit; 4.3 Robustness of the Baseline; 4.4 The Role of Leverage; 4.5 Capital Inflows Bonanza; 4.6 Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity; 5 Concluding Remarks; A: Data Sources and Sample Makeup; B: Additional Figures; C: Additional Regression Results. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Financial crises. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89002668 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Financial crises |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Banks. |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Financial Crises. |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Global Commodity Crises. |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a International Lending And Debt Problems. |2 imf | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Presbitero, Andrea. | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a Commodity price movements and banking crises (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGP6YGQwvVvQqWFqqCmqkP |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Eberhardt, Markus. |t Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018 |z 9781484366776 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; |v no. 18/153. | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |l FWS01 |p ZDB-4-EBU |q FWS_PDA_EBU |u https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1861063 |3 Volltext |
| 936 | |a BATCHLOAD | ||
| 938 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b EBLB |n EBL5484938 | ||
| 938 | |a YBP Library Services |b YANK |n 15623051 | ||
| 938 | |a EBSCOhost |b EBSC |n 1861063 | ||
| 994 | |a 92 |b GEBAY | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-4-EBU | ||
| 049 | |a DE-863 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | ZDB-4-EBU-on1048772425 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1816796931442081792 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Eberhardt, Markus |
| author2 | Presbitero, Andrea |
| author2_role | |
| author2_variant | a p ap |
| author_facet | Eberhardt, Markus Presbitero, Andrea |
| author_role | |
| author_sort | Eberhardt, Markus |
| author_variant | m e me |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HB3722 |
| callnumber-raw | HB3722 .C666 2018 |
| callnumber-search | HB3722 .C666 2018 |
| callnumber-sort | HB 43722 C666 42018 |
| callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
| collection | ZDB-4-EBU |
| contents | Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Descriptive Analysis; 2.1 Sample; 2.2 Variable Construction and Sources; 2.3 Variable Transformation; 2.4 Event Analysis; 3 Empirical Model and Implementation; 4 Results and Discussion; 4.1 Main results; 4.2 Goodness of Fit; 4.3 Robustness of the Baseline; 4.4 The Role of Leverage; 4.5 Capital Inflows Bonanza; 4.6 Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity; 5 Concluding Remarks; A: Data Sources and Sample Makeup; B: Additional Figures; C: Additional Regression Results. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1048772425 |
| dewey-full | 338.542 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.542 |
| dewey-search | 338.542 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.542 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>03493cam a2200553 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">ZDB-4-EBU-on1048772425</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">OCoLC</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20241004212047.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="006">m o d </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr |n|---|||||</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">180818s2018 dcu o 000 0 eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">EBLCP</subfield><subfield code="b">eng</subfield><subfield code="e">pn</subfield><subfield code="c">EBLCP</subfield><subfield code="d">YDX</subfield><subfield code="d">CUY</subfield><subfield code="d">MERUC</subfield><subfield code="d">OTZ</subfield><subfield code="d">CEF</subfield><subfield code="d">OCLCQ</subfield><subfield code="d">VT2</subfield><subfield code="d">OCLCO</subfield><subfield code="d">SFB</subfield><subfield code="d">OCLCF</subfield><subfield code="d">N$T</subfield><subfield code="d">OCLCQ</subfield><subfield code="d">OCLCO</subfield><subfield code="d">OCLCL</subfield><subfield code="d">OCLCQ</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="019" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1047827237</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1484367855</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1484366778</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9781484366776</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9781484367858</subfield><subfield code="q">(electronic bk.)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.5089/9781484366776.001</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1048772425</subfield><subfield code="z">(OCoLC)1047827237</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">HB3722</subfield><subfield code="b">.C666 2018</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">338.542</subfield><subfield code="2">23</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">MAIN</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Eberhardt, Markus.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="260" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Washington, D.C. :</subfield><subfield code="b">International Monetary Fund,</subfield><subfield code="c">2018.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 online resource (54 pages)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">computer</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">online resource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">IMF Working Papers</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="588" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Print version record.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Descriptive Analysis; 2.1 Sample; 2.2 Variable Construction and Sources; 2.3 Variable Transformation; 2.4 Event Analysis; 3 Empirical Model and Implementation; 4 Results and Discussion; 4.1 Main results; 4.2 Goodness of Fit; 4.3 Robustness of the Baseline; 4.4 The Role of Leverage; 4.5 Capital Inflows Bonanza; 4.6 Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity; 5 Concluding Remarks; A: Data Sources and Sample Makeup; B: Additional Figures; C: Additional Regression Results.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Financial crises.</subfield><subfield code="0">http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89002668</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Financial crises</subfield><subfield code="2">fast</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Banks.</subfield><subfield code="2">imf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Financial Crises.</subfield><subfield code="2">imf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Global Commodity Crises.</subfield><subfield code="2">imf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">International Lending And Debt Problems.</subfield><subfield code="2">imf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Presbitero, Andrea.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="758" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="i">has work:</subfield><subfield code="a">Commodity price movements and banking crises (Text)</subfield><subfield code="1">https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGP6YGQwvVvQqWFqqCmqkP</subfield><subfield code="4">https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Print version:</subfield><subfield code="a">Eberhardt, Markus.</subfield><subfield code="t">Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises.</subfield><subfield code="d">Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018</subfield><subfield code="z">9781484366776</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="830" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;</subfield><subfield code="v">no. 18/153.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="l">FWS01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-4-EBU</subfield><subfield code="q">FWS_PDA_EBU</subfield><subfield code="u">https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1861063</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="936" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">BATCHLOAD</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="938" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ProQuest Ebook Central</subfield><subfield code="b">EBLB</subfield><subfield code="n">EBL5484938</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="938" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">YBP Library Services</subfield><subfield code="b">YANK</subfield><subfield code="n">15623051</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="938" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">EBSCOhost</subfield><subfield code="b">EBSC</subfield><subfield code="n">1861063</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="994" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">92</subfield><subfield code="b">GEBAY</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-4-EBU</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | ZDB-4-EBU-on1048772425 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:49:31Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1484367855 1484366778 9781484366776 9781484367858 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 1048772425 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 online resource (54 pages) |
| psigel | ZDB-4-EBU |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publishDateSearch | 2018 |
| publishDateSort | 2018 |
| publisher | International Monetary Fund, |
| record_format | marc |
| series | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; |
| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Eberhardt, Markus. Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018. 1 online resource (54 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Print version record. Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Descriptive Analysis; 2.1 Sample; 2.2 Variable Construction and Sources; 2.3 Variable Transformation; 2.4 Event Analysis; 3 Empirical Model and Implementation; 4 Results and Discussion; 4.1 Main results; 4.2 Goodness of Fit; 4.3 Robustness of the Baseline; 4.4 The Role of Leverage; 4.5 Capital Inflows Bonanza; 4.6 Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity; 5 Concluding Remarks; A: Data Sources and Sample Makeup; B: Additional Figures; C: Additional Regression Results. We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs. Financial crises. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89002668 Financial crises fast Banks. imf Financial Crises. imf Global Commodity Crises. imf International Lending And Debt Problems. imf Presbitero, Andrea. has work: Commodity price movements and banking crises (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGP6YGQwvVvQqWFqqCmqkP https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Eberhardt, Markus. Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018 9781484366776 IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; no. 18/153. FWS01 ZDB-4-EBU FWS_PDA_EBU https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1861063 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Eberhardt, Markus Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Descriptive Analysis; 2.1 Sample; 2.2 Variable Construction and Sources; 2.3 Variable Transformation; 2.4 Event Analysis; 3 Empirical Model and Implementation; 4 Results and Discussion; 4.1 Main results; 4.2 Goodness of Fit; 4.3 Robustness of the Baseline; 4.4 The Role of Leverage; 4.5 Capital Inflows Bonanza; 4.6 Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity; 5 Concluding Remarks; A: Data Sources and Sample Makeup; B: Additional Figures; C: Additional Regression Results. Financial crises. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89002668 Financial crises fast Banks. imf Financial Crises. imf Global Commodity Crises. imf International Lending And Debt Problems. imf |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89002668 |
| title | Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |
| title_auth | Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |
| title_exact_search | Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |
| title_full | Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |
| title_fullStr | Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |
| title_short | Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. |
| title_sort | commodity price movements and banking crises |
| topic | Financial crises. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh89002668 Financial crises fast Banks. imf Financial Crises. imf Global Commodity Crises. imf International Lending And Debt Problems. imf |
| topic_facet | Financial crises. Financial crises Banks. Financial Crises. Global Commodity Crises. International Lending And Debt Problems. |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1861063 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT eberhardtmarkus commoditypricemovementsandbankingcrises AT presbiteroandrea commoditypricemovementsandbankingcrises |