A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies.:
Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. Yet, despite the acceleration in demographic shifts in the past decade, advanced economies experienced markedly different trajectories in ove...
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
[2018]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/18/120. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. Yet, despite the acceleration in demographic shifts in the past decade, advanced economies experienced markedly different trajectories in overall labor force participation rates and the workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort-based model of labor force participation for 17 advanced economies estimated over the 1985-2016 period, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations for aggregate labor supply, especially in the case of women. The entry of new cohorts of women led to upward shifts in the age participation prole, boosting aggregate participation rates. However, this process plateaued in most advanced economies, with signs of reversal in some. Using the model's results to forecast future participation trends, we project sizable declines in aggregate participation rates over the next three decades due to the aging of the population. Illustrative simulations show that implementing policies encouraging labor supply can help attenuate but may not fully offset demographic pressures. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (25 pages) |
| ISBN: | 1484358635 1484355253 9781484355251 9781484358634 |
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| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Methodology; 2.1 Data; 2.2 Shift-Share Analysis and Cyclical Effects; 2.3 Cohort-Based Model; 2.4 Forecast and Simulations; 3 Results; 3.1 The Role of Aging and Cyclical Effects; 3.2 Age and Cohort Effects in Labor Force Participation Rates; 3.3 Illustrative Simulations; 3.4 Robustness; 4 Conclusions; References; A Country-Specific Estimates; B Calculation of the Cyclical Effects; List of Figures; 1 Demographic Transition in AEs Compared to EMDEs; 2 Changes in LFPR over 2008-16; 3 LFPR by Gender. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 4 Changes in LFPR by Gender Since 2008: The Role of Aging and Cyclical Effects5 Age Effects; 6 Cohort Effects; 7 Trend Projection of LFPR; 8 Changes in Trend LFPR Under Alternative Scenarios; A.1 Age Effects by Country; A.2 Cohort Effects by Country; A.3 Actual and Trend LFPR by Country; A.4 Trend Projections of LFPR by Country; List of Tables; B.1 Regressions of Detrended LFPR. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. Yet, despite the acceleration in demographic shifts in the past decade, advanced economies experienced markedly different trajectories in overall labor force participation rates and the workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort-based model of labor force participation for 17 advanced economies estimated over the 1985-2016 period, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations for aggregate labor supply, especially in the case of women. The entry of new cohorts of women led to upward shifts in the age participation prole, boosting aggregate participation rates. However, this process plateaued in most advanced economies, with signs of reversal in some. Using the model's results to forecast future participation trends, we project sizable declines in aggregate participation rates over the next three decades due to the aging of the population. Illustrative simulations show that implementing policies encouraging labor supply can help attenuate but may not fully offset demographic pressures. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Labor supply |z Developed countries |x History |y 20th century |v Statistics. | |
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| 650 | 6 | |a Marché du travail |z Pays industrialisés |x Histoire |y 21e siècle |v Statistiques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Advanced Economies. |2 imf | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Koczan, Zsoka, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2014098694 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Topalova, Petia, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2004021925 | |
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| author | Grigoli, Francesco Koczan, Zsoka Topalova, Petia |
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| contents | Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Methodology; 2.1 Data; 2.2 Shift-Share Analysis and Cyclical Effects; 2.3 Cohort-Based Model; 2.4 Forecast and Simulations; 3 Results; 3.1 The Role of Aging and Cyclical Effects; 3.2 Age and Cohort Effects in Labor Force Participation Rates; 3.3 Illustrative Simulations; 3.4 Robustness; 4 Conclusions; References; A Country-Specific Estimates; B Calculation of the Cyclical Effects; List of Figures; 1 Demographic Transition in AEs Compared to EMDEs; 2 Changes in LFPR over 2008-16; 3 LFPR by Gender. 4 Changes in LFPR by Gender Since 2008: The Role of Aging and Cyclical Effects5 Age Effects; 6 Cohort Effects; 7 Trend Projection of LFPR; 8 Changes in Trend LFPR Under Alternative Scenarios; A.1 Age Effects by Country; A.2 Cohort Effects by Country; A.3 Actual and Trend LFPR by Country; A.4 Trend Projections of LFPR by Country; List of Tables; B.1 Regressions of Detrended LFPR. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1041908201 |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | ZDB-4-EBU-on1041908201 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:49:31Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1484358635 1484355253 9781484355251 9781484358634 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Grigoli, Francesco, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2010104617 A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2018] ©2018 1 online resource (25 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Paper ; WP/18/120 Print version record. Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Methodology; 2.1 Data; 2.2 Shift-Share Analysis and Cyclical Effects; 2.3 Cohort-Based Model; 2.4 Forecast and Simulations; 3 Results; 3.1 The Role of Aging and Cyclical Effects; 3.2 Age and Cohort Effects in Labor Force Participation Rates; 3.3 Illustrative Simulations; 3.4 Robustness; 4 Conclusions; References; A Country-Specific Estimates; B Calculation of the Cyclical Effects; List of Figures; 1 Demographic Transition in AEs Compared to EMDEs; 2 Changes in LFPR over 2008-16; 3 LFPR by Gender. 4 Changes in LFPR by Gender Since 2008: The Role of Aging and Cyclical Effects5 Age Effects; 6 Cohort Effects; 7 Trend Projection of LFPR; 8 Changes in Trend LFPR Under Alternative Scenarios; A.1 Age Effects by Country; A.2 Cohort Effects by Country; A.3 Actual and Trend LFPR by Country; A.4 Trend Projections of LFPR by Country; List of Tables; B.1 Regressions of Detrended LFPR. Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. Yet, despite the acceleration in demographic shifts in the past decade, advanced economies experienced markedly different trajectories in overall labor force participation rates and the workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort-based model of labor force participation for 17 advanced economies estimated over the 1985-2016 period, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations for aggregate labor supply, especially in the case of women. The entry of new cohorts of women led to upward shifts in the age participation prole, boosting aggregate participation rates. However, this process plateaued in most advanced economies, with signs of reversal in some. Using the model's results to forecast future participation trends, we project sizable declines in aggregate participation rates over the next three decades due to the aging of the population. Illustrative simulations show that implementing policies encouraging labor supply can help attenuate but may not fully offset demographic pressures. Labor supply Developed countries History 20th century Statistics. Labor supply Developed countries History 21st century Statistics. Marché du travail Pays industrialisés Histoire 20e siècle Statistiques. Marché du travail Pays industrialisés Histoire 21e siècle Statistiques. Advanced Economies. imf All Countries. imf Koczan, Zsoka, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2014098694 Topalova, Petia, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2004021925 has work: A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGRhbB6KhcgQCw74CTPB8C https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Grigoli, Francesco. A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018 9781484355251 IMF working paper ; WP/18/120. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBU FWS_PDA_EBU https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1832910 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Grigoli, Francesco Koczan, Zsoka Topalova, Petia A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. IMF working paper ; Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Methodology; 2.1 Data; 2.2 Shift-Share Analysis and Cyclical Effects; 2.3 Cohort-Based Model; 2.4 Forecast and Simulations; 3 Results; 3.1 The Role of Aging and Cyclical Effects; 3.2 Age and Cohort Effects in Labor Force Participation Rates; 3.3 Illustrative Simulations; 3.4 Robustness; 4 Conclusions; References; A Country-Specific Estimates; B Calculation of the Cyclical Effects; List of Figures; 1 Demographic Transition in AEs Compared to EMDEs; 2 Changes in LFPR over 2008-16; 3 LFPR by Gender. 4 Changes in LFPR by Gender Since 2008: The Role of Aging and Cyclical Effects5 Age Effects; 6 Cohort Effects; 7 Trend Projection of LFPR; 8 Changes in Trend LFPR Under Alternative Scenarios; A.1 Age Effects by Country; A.2 Cohort Effects by Country; A.3 Actual and Trend LFPR by Country; A.4 Trend Projections of LFPR by Country; List of Tables; B.1 Regressions of Detrended LFPR. Labor supply Developed countries History 20th century Statistics. Labor supply Developed countries History 21st century Statistics. Marché du travail Pays industrialisés Histoire 20e siècle Statistiques. Marché du travail Pays industrialisés Histoire 21e siècle Statistiques. Advanced Economies. imf |
| title | A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. |
| title_auth | A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. |
| title_exact_search | A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. |
| title_full | A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. |
| title_fullStr | A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. |
| title_short | A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies. |
| title_sort | cohort based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies |
| topic | Labor supply Developed countries History 20th century Statistics. Labor supply Developed countries History 21st century Statistics. Marché du travail Pays industrialisés Histoire 20e siècle Statistiques. Marché du travail Pays industrialisés Histoire 21e siècle Statistiques. Advanced Economies. imf |
| topic_facet | Labor supply Developed countries History 20th century Statistics. Labor supply Developed countries History 21st century Statistics. Marché du travail Pays industrialisés Histoire 20e siècle Statistiques. Marché du travail Pays industrialisés Histoire 21e siècle Statistiques. Advanced Economies. All Countries. |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1832910 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT grigolifrancesco acohortbasedanalysisoflaborforceparticipationforadvancedeconomies AT koczanzsoka acohortbasedanalysisoflaborforceparticipationforadvancedeconomies AT topalovapetia acohortbasedanalysisoflaborforceparticipationforadvancedeconomies AT grigolifrancesco cohortbasedanalysisoflaborforceparticipationforadvancedeconomies AT koczanzsoka cohortbasedanalysisoflaborforceparticipationforadvancedeconomies AT topalovapetia cohortbasedanalysisoflaborforceparticipationforadvancedeconomies |