Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle /:
As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-movi...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
[2018]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/18/67. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (46 pages) |
| ISBN: | 148434863X 1484345401 9781484345405 9781484348635 |
Internformat
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| 520 | 3 | |a As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Business cycles. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85018278 | |
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| contents | Cover; Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle; 1 Introduction; 2 Model; 3 Approximation; 4 Estimation; 5 Demographic Trends and the Business Cycle; 6 Conclusions. |
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| id | ZDB-4-EBU-on1032724805 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:49:30Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 148434863X 1484345401 9781484345405 9781484348635 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 1032724805 |
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| spelling | Jones, Callum J., author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2022180887 Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / by Callum Jones. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2018] ©2018 1 online resource (46 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Paper ; WP/18/67 Print version record. Cover; Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle; 1 Introduction; 2 Model; 3 Approximation; 4 Estimation; 5 Demographic Trends and the Business Cycle; 6 Conclusions. As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession. Business cycles. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85018278 Cycles économiques. Business cycles fast Print version: Jones, Callum. Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018 9781484345405 IMF working paper ; WP/18/67. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBU FWS_PDA_EBU https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1793138 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Jones, Callum J. Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / IMF working paper ; Cover; Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle; 1 Introduction; 2 Model; 3 Approximation; 4 Estimation; 5 Demographic Trends and the Business Cycle; 6 Conclusions. Business cycles. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85018278 Cycles économiques. Business cycles fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85018278 |
| title | Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / |
| title_auth | Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / |
| title_exact_search | Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / |
| title_full | Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / by Callum Jones. |
| title_fullStr | Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / by Callum Jones. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / by Callum Jones. |
| title_short | Aging, secular stagnation and the business cycle / |
| title_sort | aging secular stagnation and the business cycle |
| topic | Business cycles. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85018278 Cycles économiques. Business cycles fast |
| topic_facet | Business cycles. Cycles économiques. Business cycles |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1793138 |
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