Chronicle of a decline foretold :: has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? /
"China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wage...
Gespeichert in:
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2013.
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/13/26. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios - with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity - may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor"--Abstract. |
| Beschreibung: | Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Feb. 4, 2013). "Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department." "January 2013." |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (21 pages) : color illustrations. |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-20). |
| ISBN: | 9781475594058 1475594054 1475525192 9781475525199 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Chronicle of a decline foretold : |b has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / |c Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2013. | ||
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| 500 | |a Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Feb. 4, 2013). | ||
| 500 | |a "Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department." | ||
| 500 | |a "January 2013." | ||
| 520 | |a "China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios - with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity - may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor"--Abstract. | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-20). | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; III. Empirical Framework; IV. Results; V. Scenario Analysis; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Increase in the Fertility Rate; C. Higher Labor Force Participation Rates; D. Financial Sector Reform; E. Product Market Reform; VI. Conclusion; References; Appendix: Derivation of Empirical Framework; Figures; Figure 1.A. What is the Lewis Turning Point?; Figure 1.B. Economy Where Full Employment has not Been Achieved; Figure 2. Labor Market Developments; Figure 3. Demographic Pressures; Figure 4. Estimated Excess Supply Levels. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Figure 5. Labor Force, Actual and Regression EstimatesFigure 6. Baseline Scenario: Surplus Labor; Figure 7. Alternative Scenarios: Surplus Labor; Figure 8. Working Age Population: Constant and High Fertility; Figure 9. Labor Force Participation Rate; Tables; Table 1: Variable definitions and Sources; Table 2: Estimated Regression Coefficients; Table 3: Excess Labor Supply Scenarios (millions) | |
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| author | Das, Mitali |
| author2 | N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. (Papa M'Bagnick Paté) |
| author2_role | |
| author2_variant | p m p n pmp pmpn |
| author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2013012617 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2005036380 |
| author_corporate | International Monetary Fund. Research Department International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department |
| author_corporate_role | |
| author_facet | Das, Mitali N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. (Papa M'Bagnick Paté) International Monetary Fund. Research Department International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department |
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| callnumber-subject | HG - Finance |
| collection | ZDB-4-EBU |
| contents | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; III. Empirical Framework; IV. Results; V. Scenario Analysis; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Increase in the Fertility Rate; C. Higher Labor Force Participation Rates; D. Financial Sector Reform; E. Product Market Reform; VI. Conclusion; References; Appendix: Derivation of Empirical Framework; Figures; Figure 1.A. What is the Lewis Turning Point?; Figure 1.B. Economy Where Full Employment has not Been Achieved; Figure 2. Labor Market Developments; Figure 3. Demographic Pressures; Figure 4. Estimated Excess Supply Levels. Figure 5. Labor Force, Actual and Regression EstimatesFigure 6. Baseline Scenario: Surplus Labor; Figure 7. Alternative Scenarios: Surplus Labor; Figure 8. Working Age Population: Constant and High Fertility; Figure 9. Labor Force Participation Rate; Tables; Table 1: Variable definitions and Sources; Table 2: Estimated Regression Coefficients; Table 3: Excess Labor Supply Scenarios (millions) |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)826652844 |
| dewey-full | 331.120951 |
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| dewey-ones | 331 - Labor economics |
| dewey-raw | 331.120951 |
| dewey-search | 331.120951 |
| dewey-sort | 3331.120951 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| geographic_facet | China Population. China |
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| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:49:08Z |
| institution | BVB |
| institution_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no97006778 |
| isbn | 9781475594058 1475594054 1475525192 9781475525199 |
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| series | IMF working paper ; |
| series2 | IMF working paper ; |
| spelling | Das, Mitali. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2013012617 Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2013. 1 online resource (21 pages) : color illustrations. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF working paper ; WP/13/26 Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Feb. 4, 2013). "Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department." "January 2013." "China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios - with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity - may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor"--Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-20). Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; III. Empirical Framework; IV. Results; V. Scenario Analysis; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Increase in the Fertility Rate; C. Higher Labor Force Participation Rates; D. Financial Sector Reform; E. Product Market Reform; VI. Conclusion; References; Appendix: Derivation of Empirical Framework; Figures; Figure 1.A. What is the Lewis Turning Point?; Figure 1.B. Economy Where Full Employment has not Been Achieved; Figure 2. Labor Market Developments; Figure 3. Demographic Pressures; Figure 4. Estimated Excess Supply Levels. Figure 5. Labor Force, Actual and Regression EstimatesFigure 6. Baseline Scenario: Surplus Labor; Figure 7. Alternative Scenarios: Surplus Labor; Figure 8. Working Age Population: Constant and High Fertility; Figure 9. Labor Force Participation Rate; Tables; Table 1: Variable definitions and Sources; Table 2: Estimated Regression Coefficients; Table 3: Excess Labor Supply Scenarios (millions) Labor supply China. Population aging China. China Population. Marché du travail Chine. Vieillissement de la population Chine. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Labor. bisacsh Labor supply fast Population fast Population aging fast China fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJcrd4RjtCBk4wfMhTwwG3 N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. (Papa M'Bagnick Paté) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjJf6XPP3cQbDpHgXhbcfq http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2005036380 International Monetary Fund. Research Department. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no97006778 IMF working paper ; WP/13/26. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBU FWS_PDA_EBU https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=548042 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Das, Mitali Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / IMF working paper ; Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments; III. Empirical Framework; IV. Results; V. Scenario Analysis; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Increase in the Fertility Rate; C. Higher Labor Force Participation Rates; D. Financial Sector Reform; E. Product Market Reform; VI. Conclusion; References; Appendix: Derivation of Empirical Framework; Figures; Figure 1.A. What is the Lewis Turning Point?; Figure 1.B. Economy Where Full Employment has not Been Achieved; Figure 2. Labor Market Developments; Figure 3. Demographic Pressures; Figure 4. Estimated Excess Supply Levels. Figure 5. Labor Force, Actual and Regression EstimatesFigure 6. Baseline Scenario: Surplus Labor; Figure 7. Alternative Scenarios: Surplus Labor; Figure 8. Working Age Population: Constant and High Fertility; Figure 9. Labor Force Participation Rate; Tables; Table 1: Variable definitions and Sources; Table 2: Estimated Regression Coefficients; Table 3: Excess Labor Supply Scenarios (millions) Labor supply China. Population aging China. Marché du travail Chine. Vieillissement de la population Chine. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Labor. bisacsh Labor supply fast Population fast Population aging fast |
| title | Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / |
| title_auth | Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / |
| title_exact_search | Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / |
| title_full | Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye. |
| title_fullStr | Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye. |
| title_short | Chronicle of a decline foretold : |
| title_sort | chronicle of a decline foretold has china reached the lewis turning point |
| title_sub | has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / |
| topic | Labor supply China. Population aging China. Marché du travail Chine. Vieillissement de la population Chine. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Labor. bisacsh Labor supply fast Population fast Population aging fast |
| topic_facet | Labor supply China. Population aging China. China Population. Marché du travail Chine. Vieillissement de la population Chine. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Labor. Labor supply Population Population aging China |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=548042 |
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