Okun's Law :: fit at fifty? /
This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantially during the Great Reces...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
©2013.
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/13/10. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantially during the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of "jobless recoveries," are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship--the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate--varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labor markets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation. |
| Beschreibung: | Title from title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jan. 22, 2013). "Research Department." "January 2013." |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (40 pages) : illustrations. |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| ISBN: | 9781475537352 1475537352 9781475574265 1475574266 9781475585742 1475585748 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Ball, Laurence M. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n88673460 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Okun's Law : |b fit at fifty? / |c Laurence M. Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prakash Loungani. |
| 260 | |a Washington, D.C. : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2013. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (40 pages) : |b illustrations. | ||
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| 500 | |a Title from title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jan. 22, 2013). | ||
| 520 | |a This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantially during the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of "jobless recoveries," are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship--the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate--varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labor markets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation. | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 500 | |a "Research Department." | ||
| 500 | |a "January 2013." | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Okun's Law: Fit at 50?; Abstract; INTRODUCTION; II. ESTIMATING OKUN'S LAW; A. Okun's Law; B. Estimation; III. OKUN'S LAW IN THE UNITED STATES; A. Annual Data: Main Results; B. Annual Data: Robustness; Addressing the Endpoint Problem; Forecast Errors; CBO Estimates; C. Quarterly Data; D. Comparison to Okun (1962); E. Output, Employment, and Unemployment; IV. JOBLESS RECOVERIES?; V. OKUN'S LAW IN 20 ADVANCED ECONOMIES; A. Basic Results; B. Stability Over Time; VI. OKUN'S LAW IN THE GREAT RECESSION; A. Output and Unemployment from Peak to Trough; B. Correcting for the Length of Recessions. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a C. Adjusting for Country-Specific CoefficientsD. A German Miracle?; VII. EXPLAINING CROSS-COUNTRY VARIATION IN OKUN'S LAW; A. Looking for Explanatory Variables; B. Individual Countries; Spain; Japan; Switzerland; Austria; VIII. CONCLUSION; REFERENCES; Tables; 1. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law; Table 2. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law; Table 3. United States: Replication and Update of Okun's (1962) Regression; Table 4. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law and Unemployment-Employment Relation; Table 5. 20 Advanced Economies: Estimates of Okun's Law. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Table 6. 20 Advanced Economies: Estimates of Okun's LawFigures; Figure 1. United States: Okun's Law, 1948-2011; Figure 2. United States: Test for Okun Coefficient Instability at Unknown Date, 1948-2011; Figure 3. Robustness: U.S. Natural Rates; Figure 4. United States: Okun's Law Based on Forecast Errors; Figure 5. United States: Actual and Fitted Unemployment Rate; Figure 6. United States: Okun's Law for Employment, and Unemployment-Employment Relation, 1948-2011; Figure 7. United States and the Great Recession; Figure 8. United States and the 1981 Recession. | |
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| author | Ball, Laurence M. |
| author2 | Leigh, Daniel Loungani, Prakash |
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| author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n88673460 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n92021651 |
| author_corporate | International Monetary Fund. Research Department |
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| author_facet | Ball, Laurence M. Leigh, Daniel Loungani, Prakash International Monetary Fund. Research Department |
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| contents | Cover; Okun's Law: Fit at 50?; Abstract; INTRODUCTION; II. ESTIMATING OKUN'S LAW; A. Okun's Law; B. Estimation; III. OKUN'S LAW IN THE UNITED STATES; A. Annual Data: Main Results; B. Annual Data: Robustness; Addressing the Endpoint Problem; Forecast Errors; CBO Estimates; C. Quarterly Data; D. Comparison to Okun (1962); E. Output, Employment, and Unemployment; IV. JOBLESS RECOVERIES?; V. OKUN'S LAW IN 20 ADVANCED ECONOMIES; A. Basic Results; B. Stability Over Time; VI. OKUN'S LAW IN THE GREAT RECESSION; A. Output and Unemployment from Peak to Trough; B. Correcting for the Length of Recessions. C. Adjusting for Country-Specific CoefficientsD. A German Miracle?; VII. EXPLAINING CROSS-COUNTRY VARIATION IN OKUN'S LAW; A. Looking for Explanatory Variables; B. Individual Countries; Spain; Japan; Switzerland; Austria; VIII. CONCLUSION; REFERENCES; Tables; 1. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law; Table 2. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law; Table 3. United States: Replication and Update of Okun's (1962) Regression; Table 4. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law and Unemployment-Employment Relation; Table 5. 20 Advanced Economies: Estimates of Okun's Law. Table 6. 20 Advanced Economies: Estimates of Okun's LawFigures; Figure 1. United States: Okun's Law, 1948-2011; Figure 2. United States: Test for Okun Coefficient Instability at Unknown Date, 1948-2011; Figure 3. Robustness: U.S. Natural Rates; Figure 4. United States: Okun's Law Based on Forecast Errors; Figure 5. United States: Actual and Fitted Unemployment Rate; Figure 6. United States: Okun's Law for Employment, and Unemployment-Employment Relation, 1948-2011; Figure 7. United States and the Great Recession; Figure 8. United States and the 1981 Recession. |
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| dewey-search | 332.152 |
| dewey-sort | 3332.152 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| era | 1900-1999 fast |
| era_facet | 1900-1999 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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We find that Okun's Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantially during the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of "jobless recoveries," are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship--the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate--varies substantially across countries. 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| series | IMF working paper ; |
| series2 | IMF working paper ; |
| spelling | Ball, Laurence M. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n88673460 Okun's Law : fit at fifty? / Laurence M. Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prakash Loungani. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2013. 1 online resource (40 pages) : illustrations. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF working paper ; 13/10 Title from title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jan. 22, 2013). This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantially during the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of "jobless recoveries," are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship--the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate--varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labor markets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation. Includes bibliographical references. "Research Department." "January 2013." Cover; Okun's Law: Fit at 50?; Abstract; INTRODUCTION; II. ESTIMATING OKUN'S LAW; A. Okun's Law; B. Estimation; III. OKUN'S LAW IN THE UNITED STATES; A. Annual Data: Main Results; B. Annual Data: Robustness; Addressing the Endpoint Problem; Forecast Errors; CBO Estimates; C. Quarterly Data; D. Comparison to Okun (1962); E. Output, Employment, and Unemployment; IV. JOBLESS RECOVERIES?; V. OKUN'S LAW IN 20 ADVANCED ECONOMIES; A. Basic Results; B. Stability Over Time; VI. OKUN'S LAW IN THE GREAT RECESSION; A. Output and Unemployment from Peak to Trough; B. Correcting for the Length of Recessions. C. Adjusting for Country-Specific CoefficientsD. A German Miracle?; VII. EXPLAINING CROSS-COUNTRY VARIATION IN OKUN'S LAW; A. Looking for Explanatory Variables; B. Individual Countries; Spain; Japan; Switzerland; Austria; VIII. CONCLUSION; REFERENCES; Tables; 1. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law; Table 2. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law; Table 3. United States: Replication and Update of Okun's (1962) Regression; Table 4. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law and Unemployment-Employment Relation; Table 5. 20 Advanced Economies: Estimates of Okun's Law. Table 6. 20 Advanced Economies: Estimates of Okun's LawFigures; Figure 1. United States: Okun's Law, 1948-2011; Figure 2. United States: Test for Okun Coefficient Instability at Unknown Date, 1948-2011; Figure 3. Robustness: U.S. Natural Rates; Figure 4. United States: Okun's Law Based on Forecast Errors; Figure 5. United States: Actual and Fitted Unemployment Rate; Figure 6. United States: Okun's Law for Employment, and Unemployment-Employment Relation, 1948-2011; Figure 7. United States and the Great Recession; Figure 8. United States and the 1981 Recession. Unemployment United States History 20th century Econometric models. Unemployment History 20th century Econometric models. Macroeconomics Econometric models. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2008107159 Recessions Econometric models. Récessions Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Banks & Banking. bisacsh Macroeconomics Econometric models fast Recessions Econometric models fast Unemployment Econometric models fast United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq 1900-1999 fast History fast Leigh, Daniel. Loungani, Prakash. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n92021651 International Monetary Fund. Research Department. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 IMF working paper ; WP/13/10. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBU FWS_PDA_EBU https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=548016 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Ball, Laurence M. Okun's Law : fit at fifty? / IMF working paper ; Cover; Okun's Law: Fit at 50?; Abstract; INTRODUCTION; II. ESTIMATING OKUN'S LAW; A. Okun's Law; B. Estimation; III. OKUN'S LAW IN THE UNITED STATES; A. Annual Data: Main Results; B. Annual Data: Robustness; Addressing the Endpoint Problem; Forecast Errors; CBO Estimates; C. Quarterly Data; D. Comparison to Okun (1962); E. Output, Employment, and Unemployment; IV. JOBLESS RECOVERIES?; V. OKUN'S LAW IN 20 ADVANCED ECONOMIES; A. Basic Results; B. Stability Over Time; VI. OKUN'S LAW IN THE GREAT RECESSION; A. Output and Unemployment from Peak to Trough; B. Correcting for the Length of Recessions. C. Adjusting for Country-Specific CoefficientsD. A German Miracle?; VII. EXPLAINING CROSS-COUNTRY VARIATION IN OKUN'S LAW; A. Looking for Explanatory Variables; B. Individual Countries; Spain; Japan; Switzerland; Austria; VIII. CONCLUSION; REFERENCES; Tables; 1. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law; Table 2. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law; Table 3. United States: Replication and Update of Okun's (1962) Regression; Table 4. United States: Estimates of Okun's Law and Unemployment-Employment Relation; Table 5. 20 Advanced Economies: Estimates of Okun's Law. Table 6. 20 Advanced Economies: Estimates of Okun's LawFigures; Figure 1. United States: Okun's Law, 1948-2011; Figure 2. United States: Test for Okun Coefficient Instability at Unknown Date, 1948-2011; Figure 3. Robustness: U.S. Natural Rates; Figure 4. United States: Okun's Law Based on Forecast Errors; Figure 5. United States: Actual and Fitted Unemployment Rate; Figure 6. United States: Okun's Law for Employment, and Unemployment-Employment Relation, 1948-2011; Figure 7. United States and the Great Recession; Figure 8. United States and the 1981 Recession. Unemployment United States History 20th century Econometric models. Unemployment History 20th century Econometric models. Macroeconomics Econometric models. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2008107159 Recessions Econometric models. Récessions Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Banks & Banking. bisacsh Macroeconomics Econometric models fast Recessions Econometric models fast Unemployment Econometric models fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2008107159 |
| title | Okun's Law : fit at fifty? / |
| title_auth | Okun's Law : fit at fifty? / |
| title_exact_search | Okun's Law : fit at fifty? / |
| title_full | Okun's Law : fit at fifty? / Laurence M. Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prakash Loungani. |
| title_fullStr | Okun's Law : fit at fifty? / Laurence M. Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prakash Loungani. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Okun's Law : fit at fifty? / Laurence M. Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prakash Loungani. |
| title_short | Okun's Law : |
| title_sort | okun s law fit at fifty |
| title_sub | fit at fifty? / |
| topic | Unemployment United States History 20th century Econometric models. Unemployment History 20th century Econometric models. Macroeconomics Econometric models. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2008107159 Recessions Econometric models. Récessions Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Banks & Banking. bisacsh Macroeconomics Econometric models fast Recessions Econometric models fast Unemployment Econometric models fast |
| topic_facet | Unemployment United States History 20th century Econometric models. Unemployment History 20th century Econometric models. Macroeconomics Econometric models. Recessions Econometric models. Récessions Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Banks & Banking. Macroeconomics Econometric models Recessions Econometric models Unemployment Econometric models United States History |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=548016 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT balllaurencem okunslawfitatfifty AT leighdaniel okunslawfitatfifty AT lounganiprakash okunslawfitatfifty AT internationalmonetaryfundresearchdepartment okunslawfitatfifty |