International capital flows and debt dynamics /:
This paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The est...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Körperschaft: | |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2012.
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/12/175. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The estimates show that most of the secular rise in U.S. international indebtedness is attributable to growing optimism about future returns on U.S. holdings of foreign equity and FDI assets. They also show that the transformation of world savings into risky assets by the U.S. had little effect on its external position, but the expected future real depreciation of the dollar allowed the U.S. to sustain a higher level of international debt after the 1990s. |
| Beschreibung: | Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed July 17, 2012). "Research." "July 2012." |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (59 pages) |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| ISBN: | 1475581211 9781475581218 147550523X 9781475505238 1475566131 9781475566130 1475524803 9781475524802 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Evans, Martin D. D., |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n87894287 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a International capital flows and debt dynamics / |c prepared by Martin D.D. Evans. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2012. | ||
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| 500 | |a Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed July 17, 2012). | ||
| 520 | |a This paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The estimates show that most of the secular rise in U.S. international indebtedness is attributable to growing optimism about future returns on U.S. holdings of foreign equity and FDI assets. They also show that the transformation of world savings into risky assets by the U.S. had little effect on its external position, but the expected future real depreciation of the dollar allowed the U.S. to sustain a higher level of international debt after the 1990s. | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 500 | |a "Research." | ||
| 500 | |a "July 2012." | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 International Assets, Liabilities, Returns and Trade Flows; 2.1 The Balance of Payments and Consolidated Budget Constraint; 2.2 Trade Flows, Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice; List of Figures; 1 Alternative Measures of the U.S. External Position; 3 A Model of Capital Flow Dynamics; 3.1 Approximating the Consolidated Budget Constraint; 3.2 Net Positions and Capital Flows; 3.3 Gross Positions and Capital Flows; 3.4 Equilibrium Positions and Capital Flows; 4 Data and Estimation; 4.1 Data; 4.2 Adjusting Trade Flows. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 2 Trends In U.S. Foreign Assets, Liabilities and Real Trade Flows4.3 Sample Statistics; 3 Approximation Accuracy; List of Tables; 1 Summary Statistics; 2 Returns and Portfolio Shares; 4.4 Estimation; 4 Changes in the Composition of Asset and Liability Portfolios; 3 Granger Causality Tests; 5 Results; 5.1 Net Position Dynamics; 5 Historical Behavior of the U.S. Net External Position and its Components; 4 Variance Decompositions of xp[sub(t)]; 5.2 Gross Position Dynamics; 6 Historical Behavior of U.S. Gross Foreign Asset and Liability Positions and their Components. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 12 Composition Effects and the size of the Valuation Channel6.2 The Role of the Dollar; 7 Returns and the Dollar Depreciation Rates; 13 The U.S. Net External Position and the Role of the Dollar; 7 Conclusion. | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Capital movements |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Capital movements |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Debts, External |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Debts, External |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Mouvements de capitaux |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Mouvements de capitaux |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Dettes extérieures |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Dettes extérieures |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Finance. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Capital movements |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Debts, External |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 651 | 7 | |a United States |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Research Department. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a International capital flows and debt dynamics (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFMvm7gxGxGkp3HqFqJbV3 |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| _version_ | 1816796904888991744 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Evans, Martin D. D. |
| author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n87894287 |
| author_corporate | International Monetary Fund. Research Department |
| author_corporate_role | |
| author_facet | Evans, Martin D. D. International Monetary Fund. Research Department |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Evans, Martin D. D. |
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| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
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| callnumber-search | HG3881.5.I58 W67 No. 12/175eb |
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| collection | ZDB-4-EBU |
| contents | Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 International Assets, Liabilities, Returns and Trade Flows; 2.1 The Balance of Payments and Consolidated Budget Constraint; 2.2 Trade Flows, Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice; List of Figures; 1 Alternative Measures of the U.S. External Position; 3 A Model of Capital Flow Dynamics; 3.1 Approximating the Consolidated Budget Constraint; 3.2 Net Positions and Capital Flows; 3.3 Gross Positions and Capital Flows; 3.4 Equilibrium Positions and Capital Flows; 4 Data and Estimation; 4.1 Data; 4.2 Adjusting Trade Flows. 2 Trends In U.S. Foreign Assets, Liabilities and Real Trade Flows4.3 Sample Statistics; 3 Approximation Accuracy; List of Tables; 1 Summary Statistics; 2 Returns and Portfolio Shares; 4.4 Estimation; 4 Changes in the Composition of Asset and Liability Portfolios; 3 Granger Causality Tests; 5 Results; 5.1 Net Position Dynamics; 5 Historical Behavior of the U.S. Net External Position and its Components; 4 Variance Decompositions of xp[sub(t)]; 5.2 Gross Position Dynamics; 6 Historical Behavior of U.S. Gross Foreign Asset and Liability Positions and their Components. 12 Composition Effects and the size of the Valuation Channel6.2 The Role of the Dollar; 7 Returns and the Dollar Depreciation Rates; 13 The U.S. Net External Position and the Role of the Dollar; 7 Conclusion. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)800083422 |
| dewey-full | 332.152 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 332 - Financial economics |
| dewey-raw | 332.152 |
| dewey-search | 332.152 |
| dewey-sort | 3332.152 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| geographic_facet | United States |
| id | ZDB-4-EBU-ocn800083422 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:49:06Z |
| institution | BVB |
| institution_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 |
| isbn | 1475581211 9781475581218 147550523X 9781475505238 1475566131 9781475566130 1475524803 9781475524802 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 800083422 |
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| physical | 1 online resource (59 pages) |
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| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateSearch | 2012 |
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| publisher | International Monetary Fund, |
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| series | IMF working paper ; |
| series2 | IMF working paper ; |
| spelling | Evans, Martin D. D., author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n87894287 International capital flows and debt dynamics / prepared by Martin D.D. Evans. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012. 1 online resource (59 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier polychrome. rdacc http://rdaregistry.info/termList/RDAColourContent/1003 text file rdaft IMF working paper ; WP/12/175 Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed July 17, 2012). This paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The estimates show that most of the secular rise in U.S. international indebtedness is attributable to growing optimism about future returns on U.S. holdings of foreign equity and FDI assets. They also show that the transformation of world savings into risky assets by the U.S. had little effect on its external position, but the expected future real depreciation of the dollar allowed the U.S. to sustain a higher level of international debt after the 1990s. Includes bibliographical references. "Research." "July 2012." Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 International Assets, Liabilities, Returns and Trade Flows; 2.1 The Balance of Payments and Consolidated Budget Constraint; 2.2 Trade Flows, Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice; List of Figures; 1 Alternative Measures of the U.S. External Position; 3 A Model of Capital Flow Dynamics; 3.1 Approximating the Consolidated Budget Constraint; 3.2 Net Positions and Capital Flows; 3.3 Gross Positions and Capital Flows; 3.4 Equilibrium Positions and Capital Flows; 4 Data and Estimation; 4.1 Data; 4.2 Adjusting Trade Flows. 2 Trends In U.S. Foreign Assets, Liabilities and Real Trade Flows4.3 Sample Statistics; 3 Approximation Accuracy; List of Tables; 1 Summary Statistics; 2 Returns and Portfolio Shares; 4.4 Estimation; 4 Changes in the Composition of Asset and Liability Portfolios; 3 Granger Causality Tests; 5 Results; 5.1 Net Position Dynamics; 5 Historical Behavior of the U.S. Net External Position and its Components; 4 Variance Decompositions of xp[sub(t)]; 5.2 Gross Position Dynamics; 6 Historical Behavior of U.S. Gross Foreign Asset and Liability Positions and their Components. 12 Composition Effects and the size of the Valuation Channel6.2 The Role of the Dollar; 7 Returns and the Dollar Depreciation Rates; 13 The U.S. Net External Position and the Role of the Dollar; 7 Conclusion. English. Capital movements Econometric models. Capital movements United States Econometric models. Debts, External Econometric models. Debts, External United States Econometric models. Mouvements de capitaux Modèles économétriques. Mouvements de capitaux États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Dettes extérieures Modèles économétriques. Dettes extérieures États-Unis Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Capital movements Econometric models fast Debts, External Econometric models fast United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq International Monetary Fund. Research Department. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 has work: International capital flows and debt dynamics (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFMvm7gxGxGkp3HqFqJbV3 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork 1-4755-8121-1 1-4755-0523-X IMF working paper ; WP/12/175. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBU FWS_PDA_EBU https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568165 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Evans, Martin D. D. International capital flows and debt dynamics / IMF working paper ; Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 International Assets, Liabilities, Returns and Trade Flows; 2.1 The Balance of Payments and Consolidated Budget Constraint; 2.2 Trade Flows, Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice; List of Figures; 1 Alternative Measures of the U.S. External Position; 3 A Model of Capital Flow Dynamics; 3.1 Approximating the Consolidated Budget Constraint; 3.2 Net Positions and Capital Flows; 3.3 Gross Positions and Capital Flows; 3.4 Equilibrium Positions and Capital Flows; 4 Data and Estimation; 4.1 Data; 4.2 Adjusting Trade Flows. 2 Trends In U.S. Foreign Assets, Liabilities and Real Trade Flows4.3 Sample Statistics; 3 Approximation Accuracy; List of Tables; 1 Summary Statistics; 2 Returns and Portfolio Shares; 4.4 Estimation; 4 Changes in the Composition of Asset and Liability Portfolios; 3 Granger Causality Tests; 5 Results; 5.1 Net Position Dynamics; 5 Historical Behavior of the U.S. Net External Position and its Components; 4 Variance Decompositions of xp[sub(t)]; 5.2 Gross Position Dynamics; 6 Historical Behavior of U.S. Gross Foreign Asset and Liability Positions and their Components. 12 Composition Effects and the size of the Valuation Channel6.2 The Role of the Dollar; 7 Returns and the Dollar Depreciation Rates; 13 The U.S. Net External Position and the Role of the Dollar; 7 Conclusion. Capital movements Econometric models. Capital movements United States Econometric models. Debts, External Econometric models. Debts, External United States Econometric models. Mouvements de capitaux Modèles économétriques. Mouvements de capitaux États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Dettes extérieures Modèles économétriques. Dettes extérieures États-Unis Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Capital movements Econometric models fast Debts, External Econometric models fast |
| title | International capital flows and debt dynamics / |
| title_auth | International capital flows and debt dynamics / |
| title_exact_search | International capital flows and debt dynamics / |
| title_full | International capital flows and debt dynamics / prepared by Martin D.D. Evans. |
| title_fullStr | International capital flows and debt dynamics / prepared by Martin D.D. Evans. |
| title_full_unstemmed | International capital flows and debt dynamics / prepared by Martin D.D. Evans. |
| title_short | International capital flows and debt dynamics / |
| title_sort | international capital flows and debt dynamics |
| topic | Capital movements Econometric models. Capital movements United States Econometric models. Debts, External Econometric models. Debts, External United States Econometric models. Mouvements de capitaux Modèles économétriques. Mouvements de capitaux États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Dettes extérieures Modèles économétriques. Dettes extérieures États-Unis Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Capital movements Econometric models fast Debts, External Econometric models fast |
| topic_facet | Capital movements Econometric models. Capital movements United States Econometric models. Debts, External Econometric models. Debts, External United States Econometric models. Mouvements de capitaux Modèles économétriques. Mouvements de capitaux États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Dettes extérieures Modèles économétriques. Dettes extérieures États-Unis Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. Capital movements Econometric models Debts, External Econometric models United States |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568165 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT evansmartindd internationalcapitalflowsanddebtdynamics AT internationalmonetaryfundresearchdepartment internationalcapitalflowsanddebtdynamics |