Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs /:
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in do...
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
[2019]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/19/9. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (58 pages) |
| ISBN: | 1484394933 9781484394939 |
Internformat
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| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Empirical Methodology; A. Country-level analysis; B. Industry-level analysis; III. Results; A. Aggregate Results; IV. Conclusion; References; List of Tables; 1. Data Sources for Country-level Analysis; 2. List of Countries in Country-level Analysis; 3. List of Countries in Industry-level Analysis; 4. List of Industries; 5. List of Advanced Economies in Country-level Analysis; 6. The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Tariffs; List of Figures; 1. The Effect of Tariffs; 2. The Effect of Tariffs -- Tariff Increases vs. Decreases | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets & Developing Economies3. The Effect of Tariffs -- Expansions vs. Recessions; 4. Robustness for Output; 5. Robustness for Productivity; 6. The Effect of Tariffs using Industry-level Data; Appendices; I. Three Episodes of Tariff Hikes; II. Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; III. Robustness Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; IV. Results for Consumption and Inflation; V. Instrumental Variable; Endnotes | |
| 520 | 3 | |a We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Protectionism |x Economic aspects. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Tariff |x Economic aspects. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Industrial productivity |x Economic aspects. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Protectionnisme |x Aspect économique. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Tarif douanier |x Aspect économique. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Productivité |x Aspect économique. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Industrial productivity |x Economic aspects |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Protectionism |x Economic aspects |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Tariff |x Economic aspects |2 fast | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali, |e author. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ostry, Jonathan David, |e author. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rose, Andrew, |d 1959- |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no93003959 | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund, |e issuing body. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n81052755 | |
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| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Furceri, Davide. |t Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs. |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2019 |
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| author | Furceri, Davide Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali Ostry, Jonathan David Rose, Andrew, 1959- |
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| author_facet | Furceri, Davide Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali Ostry, Jonathan David Rose, Andrew, 1959- |
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| contents | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Empirical Methodology; A. Country-level analysis; B. Industry-level analysis; III. Results; A. Aggregate Results; IV. Conclusion; References; List of Tables; 1. Data Sources for Country-level Analysis; 2. List of Countries in Country-level Analysis; 3. List of Countries in Industry-level Analysis; 4. List of Industries; 5. List of Advanced Economies in Country-level Analysis; 6. The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Tariffs; List of Figures; 1. The Effect of Tariffs; 2. The Effect of Tariffs -- Tariff Increases vs. Decreases Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets & Developing Economies3. The Effect of Tariffs -- Expansions vs. Recessions; 4. Robustness for Output; 5. Robustness for Productivity; 6. The Effect of Tariffs using Industry-level Data; Appendices; I. Three Episodes of Tariff Hikes; II. Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; III. Robustness Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; IV. Results for Consumption and Inflation; V. Instrumental Variable; Endnotes |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1085165618 |
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| dewey-ones | 382 - International commerce (Foreign trade) |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:29:21Z |
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| isbn | 1484394933 9781484394939 |
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| spelling | Furceri, Davide, author. Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / by Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2019] ©2019 1 online resource (58 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Paper ; WP/19/9 Print version record. Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Empirical Methodology; A. Country-level analysis; B. Industry-level analysis; III. Results; A. Aggregate Results; IV. Conclusion; References; List of Tables; 1. Data Sources for Country-level Analysis; 2. List of Countries in Country-level Analysis; 3. List of Countries in Industry-level Analysis; 4. List of Industries; 5. List of Advanced Economies in Country-level Analysis; 6. The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Tariffs; List of Figures; 1. The Effect of Tariffs; 2. The Effect of Tariffs -- Tariff Increases vs. Decreases Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets & Developing Economies3. The Effect of Tariffs -- Expansions vs. Recessions; 4. Robustness for Output; 5. Robustness for Productivity; 6. The Effect of Tariffs using Industry-level Data; Appendices; I. Three Episodes of Tariff Hikes; II. Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; III. Robustness Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; IV. Results for Consumption and Inflation; V. Instrumental Variable; Endnotes We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data. Protectionism Economic aspects. Tariff Economic aspects. Industrial productivity Economic aspects. Protectionnisme Aspect économique. Tarif douanier Aspect économique. Productivité Aspect économique. Industrial productivity Economic aspects fast Protectionism Economic aspects fast Tariff Economic aspects fast Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali, author. Ostry, Jonathan David, author. Rose, Andrew, 1959- author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no93003959 International Monetary Fund, issuing body. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n81052755 has work: Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCG8XxyyvvV9cy3fKFdKMHd https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Furceri, Davide. Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2019 IMF working paper ; WP/19/9. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=2015060 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Furceri, Davide Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali Ostry, Jonathan David Rose, Andrew, 1959- Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / IMF working paper ; Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Empirical Methodology; A. Country-level analysis; B. Industry-level analysis; III. Results; A. Aggregate Results; IV. Conclusion; References; List of Tables; 1. Data Sources for Country-level Analysis; 2. List of Countries in Country-level Analysis; 3. List of Countries in Industry-level Analysis; 4. List of Industries; 5. List of Advanced Economies in Country-level Analysis; 6. The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Tariffs; List of Figures; 1. The Effect of Tariffs; 2. The Effect of Tariffs -- Tariff Increases vs. Decreases Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets & Developing Economies3. The Effect of Tariffs -- Expansions vs. Recessions; 4. Robustness for Output; 5. Robustness for Productivity; 6. The Effect of Tariffs using Industry-level Data; Appendices; I. Three Episodes of Tariff Hikes; II. Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; III. Robustness Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance; IV. Results for Consumption and Inflation; V. Instrumental Variable; Endnotes Protectionism Economic aspects. Tariff Economic aspects. Industrial productivity Economic aspects. Protectionnisme Aspect économique. Tarif douanier Aspect économique. Productivité Aspect économique. Industrial productivity Economic aspects fast Protectionism Economic aspects fast Tariff Economic aspects fast |
| title | Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / |
| title_auth | Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / |
| title_exact_search | Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / |
| title_full | Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / by Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose. |
| title_fullStr | Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / by Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / by Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose. |
| title_short | Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs / |
| title_sort | macroeconomic consequences of tariffs |
| topic | Protectionism Economic aspects. Tariff Economic aspects. Industrial productivity Economic aspects. Protectionnisme Aspect économique. Tarif douanier Aspect économique. Productivité Aspect économique. Industrial productivity Economic aspects fast Protectionism Economic aspects fast Tariff Economic aspects fast |
| topic_facet | Protectionism Economic aspects. Tariff Economic aspects. Industrial productivity Economic aspects. Protectionnisme Aspect économique. Tarif douanier Aspect économique. Productivité Aspect économique. Industrial productivity Economic aspects Protectionism Economic aspects Tariff Economic aspects |
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