Historical dynamics :: why states rise and fall /
Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical m...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Princeton, New Jersey :
Princeton University Press,
[2018]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Princeton studies in complexity.
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (260 pages) |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| ISBN: | 9781400889310 1400889316 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Historical dynamics : |b why states rise and fall / |c Peter Turchin. |
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| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index. | ||
| 505 | 0 | 0 | |t Frontmatter -- |t Contents -- |t List of Figures -- |t List of Tables -- |t Preface -- |t Chapter One. Statement of the Problem -- |t Chapter Two. Geopolitics -- |t Chapter Three. Collective Solidarity -- |t Chapter Four. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- |t Chapter Five. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- |t Chapter Six. Ethnokinetics -- |t Chapter Seven. The Demographic-Structural Theory -- |t Chapter Eight. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers -- |t Chapter Nine. Case Studies -- |t Chapter Ten. Conclusion -- |t Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix -- |t Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- |t Bibliography -- |t Index. |
| 520 | |a Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics. | ||
| 546 | |a In English. | ||
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| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Turchin, Peter, 1957- |t Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall. |d Princeton : Princeton University Press, 2003 |h xii, 245 pages |k Princeton studies in complexity. |z 9780691116693 |w (DLC) 2003110656 |
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| author | Turchin, Peter, 1957- |
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| contents | Frontmatter -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- Chapter One. Statement of the Problem -- Chapter Two. Geopolitics -- Chapter Three. Collective Solidarity -- Chapter Four. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Chapter Five. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Chapter Six. Ethnokinetics -- Chapter Seven. The Demographic-Structural Theory -- Chapter Eight. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers -- Chapter Nine. Case Studies -- Chapter Ten. Conclusion -- Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix -- Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Bibliography -- Index. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1030823045 |
| dewey-full | 901.13 |
| dewey-hundreds | 900 - History & geography |
| dewey-ones | 901 - Philosophy and theory of history |
| dewey-raw | 901.13 |
| dewey-search | 901.13 |
| dewey-sort | 3901.13 |
| dewey-tens | 900 - History & geography |
| discipline | Geschichte |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| id | ZDB-4-EBA-on1030823045 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:28:17Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781400889310 1400889316 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Turchin, Peter, 1957- author. https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJbGYywCRCRKvB6MDHtVG3 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n98000953 Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / Peter Turchin. Princeton, New Jersey : Princeton University Press, [2018] 1 online resource (260 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Princeton studies in complexity Online resource; title from PDF title page (EBSCO, viewed April 17, 2018). Includes bibliographical references and index. Frontmatter -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- Chapter One. Statement of the Problem -- Chapter Two. Geopolitics -- Chapter Three. Collective Solidarity -- Chapter Four. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Chapter Five. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Chapter Six. Ethnokinetics -- Chapter Seven. The Demographic-Structural Theory -- Chapter Eight. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers -- Chapter Nine. Case Studies -- Chapter Ten. Conclusion -- Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix -- Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Bibliography -- Index. Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics. In English. History Mathematical models. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85061217 Historiometry. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh90002833 Histoire Modèles mathématiques. Historiométrie. HISTORY General. bisacsh Historiometry fast History Mathematical models fast Print version: Turchin, Peter, 1957- Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall. Princeton : Princeton University Press, 2003 xii, 245 pages Princeton studies in complexity. 9780691116693 (DLC) 2003110656 Princeton studies in complexity. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n96109405 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1628401 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Turchin, Peter, 1957- Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / Princeton studies in complexity. Frontmatter -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- Chapter One. Statement of the Problem -- Chapter Two. Geopolitics -- Chapter Three. Collective Solidarity -- Chapter Four. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Chapter Five. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Chapter Six. Ethnokinetics -- Chapter Seven. The Demographic-Structural Theory -- Chapter Eight. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers -- Chapter Nine. Case Studies -- Chapter Ten. Conclusion -- Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix -- Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Bibliography -- Index. History Mathematical models. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85061217 Historiometry. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh90002833 Histoire Modèles mathématiques. Historiométrie. HISTORY General. bisacsh Historiometry fast History Mathematical models fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85061217 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh90002833 |
| title | Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / |
| title_alt | Frontmatter -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- Chapter One. Statement of the Problem -- Chapter Two. Geopolitics -- Chapter Three. Collective Solidarity -- Chapter Four. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Chapter Five. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Chapter Six. Ethnokinetics -- Chapter Seven. The Demographic-Structural Theory -- Chapter Eight. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers -- Chapter Nine. Case Studies -- Chapter Ten. Conclusion -- Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix -- Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory -- Bibliography -- Index. |
| title_auth | Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / |
| title_exact_search | Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / |
| title_full | Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / Peter Turchin. |
| title_fullStr | Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / Peter Turchin. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Historical dynamics : why states rise and fall / Peter Turchin. |
| title_short | Historical dynamics : |
| title_sort | historical dynamics why states rise and fall |
| title_sub | why states rise and fall / |
| topic | History Mathematical models. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85061217 Historiometry. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh90002833 Histoire Modèles mathématiques. Historiométrie. HISTORY General. bisacsh Historiometry fast History Mathematical models fast |
| topic_facet | History Mathematical models. Historiometry. Histoire Modèles mathématiques. Historiométrie. HISTORY General. Historiometry History Mathematical models |
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