Credit and fiscal multipliers in China /:
We jointly estimate credit and fiscal multipliers in China. We use the tenure of the provincial party secretary, interacted with the type of stimulus used in other provinces, to obtain separate instruments for provincial credit and government expenditure. We estimate a fiscal multiplier of 0.8 and a...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
[2017]
|
| Series: | IMF working paper ;
WP/17/273. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Summary: | We jointly estimate credit and fiscal multipliers in China. We use the tenure of the provincial party secretary, interacted with the type of stimulus used in other provinces, to obtain separate instruments for provincial credit and government expenditure. We estimate a fiscal multiplier of 0.8 and a credit multiplier of 0.2 in 2001-2015. The multipliers have changed over time. The fiscal multiplier has increased from 0.75 in 2001-2008 to 1.4 in 2010-2015. The credit multiplier has declined from 0.17 to zero over the same periods. Our results suggest that reducing credit growth in China is unlikely to disrupt output growth, whereas fiscal policy may be effective in supporting macroeconomic adjustment. |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (27 pages) |
| ISBN: | 1484332210 1484332164 9781484332160 9781484332214 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / |c by Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski, and Pi-Han Tsai. |
| 264 | 1 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c [2017] | |
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| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Data and method; III. Results; A. Credit and fiscal multipliers; B. Robustness; C. Industry composition; D. Discussion on â#x80;#x9C;open economy multipliersâ#x80;#x9D;; IV. Conclusion; Figure; Figure 1. The correlation of bank loans and TSF growth; Figure 2. Appointments of provincial party secretaries; Figure 3. Credit and expenditure growth over the tenure of provincial party secretaries; Figure 4. Sensitivity to other provincesâ#x80;#x99; stimulus policies over the tenure of provincial secretaries; Table; Table 1. Summary statistics. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Table 2. Appointments of party secretaries and provincial economic conditionsTable 3. Full sample results; Table 4. Early and late subsamples results; Table 5. Weighted results; Table 6. Sectoral multipliers; References. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a We jointly estimate credit and fiscal multipliers in China. We use the tenure of the provincial party secretary, interacted with the type of stimulus used in other provinces, to obtain separate instruments for provincial credit and government expenditure. We estimate a fiscal multiplier of 0.8 and a credit multiplier of 0.2 in 2001-2015. The multipliers have changed over time. The fiscal multiplier has increased from 0.75 in 2001-2008 to 1.4 in 2010-2015. The credit multiplier has declined from 0.17 to zero over the same periods. Our results suggest that reducing credit growth in China is unlikely to disrupt output growth, whereas fiscal policy may be effective in supporting macroeconomic adjustment. | |
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
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| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z China |x Econometric models. | |
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| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Chen, Sophia. |t Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China. |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2017 |z 9781484332160 |
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| author | Chen, Sophia, 1980- Ratnovski, Lev Tsai, Pi-Han |
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| author_facet | Chen, Sophia, 1980- Ratnovski, Lev Tsai, Pi-Han |
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| contents | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Data and method; III. Results; A. Credit and fiscal multipliers; B. Robustness; C. Industry composition; D. Discussion on â#x80;#x9C;open economy multipliersâ#x80;#x9D;; IV. Conclusion; Figure; Figure 1. The correlation of bank loans and TSF growth; Figure 2. Appointments of provincial party secretaries; Figure 3. Credit and expenditure growth over the tenure of provincial party secretaries; Figure 4. Sensitivity to other provincesâ#x80;#x99; stimulus policies over the tenure of provincial secretaries; Table; Table 1. Summary statistics. Table 2. Appointments of party secretaries and provincial economic conditionsTable 3. Full sample results; Table 4. Early and late subsamples results; Table 5. Weighted results; Table 6. Sectoral multipliers; References. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1020029351 |
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| geographic | China Economic conditions Econometric models. Chine Conditions économiques Modèles économétriques. China fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJcrd4RjtCBk4wfMhTwwG3 |
| geographic_facet | China Economic conditions Econometric models. Chine Conditions économiques Modèles économétriques. China |
| id | ZDB-4-EBA-on1020029351 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-04-11T08:44:06Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1484332210 1484332164 9781484332160 9781484332214 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 1020029351 |
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| publishDate | 2017 |
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| spelling | Chen, Sophia, 1980- author. https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjH84KyQycGJT9Th4wVY8y http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2014078121 Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / by Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski, and Pi-Han Tsai. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2017] ©2017 1 online resource (27 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Paper ; WP/17/273 Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Data and method; III. Results; A. Credit and fiscal multipliers; B. Robustness; C. Industry composition; D. Discussion on â#x80;#x9C;open economy multipliersâ#x80;#x9D;; IV. Conclusion; Figure; Figure 1. The correlation of bank loans and TSF growth; Figure 2. Appointments of provincial party secretaries; Figure 3. Credit and expenditure growth over the tenure of provincial party secretaries; Figure 4. Sensitivity to other provincesâ#x80;#x99; stimulus policies over the tenure of provincial secretaries; Table; Table 1. Summary statistics. Table 2. Appointments of party secretaries and provincial economic conditionsTable 3. Full sample results; Table 4. Early and late subsamples results; Table 5. Weighted results; Table 6. Sectoral multipliers; References. We jointly estimate credit and fiscal multipliers in China. We use the tenure of the provincial party secretary, interacted with the type of stimulus used in other provinces, to obtain separate instruments for provincial credit and government expenditure. We estimate a fiscal multiplier of 0.8 and a credit multiplier of 0.2 in 2001-2015. The multipliers have changed over time. The fiscal multiplier has increased from 0.75 in 2001-2008 to 1.4 in 2010-2015. The credit multiplier has declined from 0.17 to zero over the same periods. Our results suggest that reducing credit growth in China is unlikely to disrupt output growth, whereas fiscal policy may be effective in supporting macroeconomic adjustment. Print version record. Credit China. Fiscal policy China Econometric models. China Economic conditions Econometric models. Crédit Chine. Politique fiscale Chine Modèles économétriques. Chine Conditions économiques Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Credit fast Economic history fast Fiscal policy Econometric models fast China fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJcrd4RjtCBk4wfMhTwwG3 Ratnovski, Lev, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2008007608 Tsai, Pi-Han, author. has work: Credit and fiscal multipliers in China (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGWvbMhX6mjptg3wKBJYyd https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Chen, Sophia. Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2017 9781484332160 IMF working paper ; WP/17/273. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 |
| spellingShingle | Chen, Sophia, 1980- Ratnovski, Lev Tsai, Pi-Han Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / IMF working paper ; Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Data and method; III. Results; A. Credit and fiscal multipliers; B. Robustness; C. Industry composition; D. Discussion on â#x80;#x9C;open economy multipliersâ#x80;#x9D;; IV. Conclusion; Figure; Figure 1. The correlation of bank loans and TSF growth; Figure 2. Appointments of provincial party secretaries; Figure 3. Credit and expenditure growth over the tenure of provincial party secretaries; Figure 4. Sensitivity to other provincesâ#x80;#x99; stimulus policies over the tenure of provincial secretaries; Table; Table 1. Summary statistics. Table 2. Appointments of party secretaries and provincial economic conditionsTable 3. Full sample results; Table 4. Early and late subsamples results; Table 5. Weighted results; Table 6. Sectoral multipliers; References. Credit China. Fiscal policy China Econometric models. Crédit Chine. Politique fiscale Chine Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Credit fast Economic history fast Fiscal policy Econometric models fast |
| title | Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / |
| title_auth | Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / |
| title_exact_search | Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / |
| title_full | Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / by Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski, and Pi-Han Tsai. |
| title_fullStr | Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / by Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski, and Pi-Han Tsai. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / by Sophia Chen, Lev Ratnovski, and Pi-Han Tsai. |
| title_short | Credit and fiscal multipliers in China / |
| title_sort | credit and fiscal multipliers in china |
| topic | Credit China. Fiscal policy China Econometric models. Crédit Chine. Politique fiscale Chine Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Credit fast Economic history fast Fiscal policy Econometric models fast |
| topic_facet | Credit China. Fiscal policy China Econometric models. China Economic conditions Econometric models. Crédit Chine. Politique fiscale Chine Modèles économétriques. Chine Conditions économiques Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. Credit Economic history Fiscal policy Econometric models China |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chensophia creditandfiscalmultipliersinchina AT ratnovskilev creditandfiscalmultipliersinchina AT tsaipihan creditandfiscalmultipliersinchina |