Evidence, decision, and causality /:
Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the sym...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York :
Cambridge University Press,
2014.
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| ISBN: | 9781316072622 1316072622 9781139107990 1139107992 1316077357 9781316077351 |
Internformat
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| 100 | 1 | |a Ahmed, Arif. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Evidence, decision, and causality / |c Arif Ahmed, University of Cambridge. |
| 264 | 1 | |a New York : |b Cambridge University Press, |c 2014. | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource | ||
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| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 520 | |a Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Halftitle; Title; Copyright; Contents; Preface; Introduction; 0.1 Causalism and evidentialism; 0.2 Evidence; 0.3 Causality; 0.4 Decision theory; 0.5 Evidential Decision Theory and Causal Decision Theory; 0.6 Predestination; 0.7 Why it matters; Chapter 1 Savage; 1.1 Simplifications and idealizations; 1.2 States, events, outcomes and acts; 1.3 Rational preference and the Savage axioms; 1.4 From preference to probability; 1.5 Utility and the representation theorem; 1.6 Dominance and fatalism; Chapter 2 EDT and CDT; 2.1 Preference over news items; 2.2 The Jeffrey-Bolker axioms | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 2.3 Credence2.4 Evidential Decision Theory; 2.5 Newcomb's problem; 2.6 K-partitions; 2.7 Causal Decision Theory; 2.8 Matters arising; Chapter 3 Causalist objections to CDT; 3.1 Egan-Gibbard; 3.2 The Piaf maxim; 3.3 Objective Decision Theory; Chapter 4 Realistic cases; 4.1 Remedial cases; 4.2 Medical cases; 4.3 The Tickle Defence; 4.4 Economic cases; 4.5 Psychological cases; 4.6 Prisoners' Dilemma; Chapter 5 Deterministic cases; 5.1 Betting on the Past; 5.2 Betting on the Laws; 5.3 Objections; 5.4 The openness of the past; Chapter 6 Quantum-mechanical cases; 6.1 The device | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 6.2 Identical settings6.3 Non-identical settings; 6.4 QM versus CDT; 6.5 Objections; Chapter 7 The standard Newcomb case; 7.1 Deflationary responses; 7.2 The Discontinuous Strategy; 7.3 The case for one-boxing; 7.4 The case for two-boxing; 7.5 Conclusion; Chapter 8 'The ultimate contingency'; 8.1 Dualism and the Ramsey Thesis; 8.2 Arguments for the Ramsey Thesis; 8.3 Dynamic inconsistency and Dutch books; 8.4 Anti-dualism; References; Index | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Decision making. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Evidence. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85045994 | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Causation. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85021459 | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prise de décision. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Évidence. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a decision making. |2 aat | |
| 650 | 7 | |a PHILOSOPHY |x Epistemology. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Evidencia |2 embne | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Toma de decisiones |2 embne | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Causation |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Decision making |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Evidence |2 fast | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a Evidence, decision, and causality (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGKmkmc9Mp9WpmbqJDmRgC |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Ahmed, Arif. |t Evidence, decision, and causality |z 9781107020894 |w (DLC) 2014020933 |w (OCoLC)879601888 |
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| author | Ahmed, Arif |
| author_facet | Ahmed, Arif |
| author_role | |
| author_sort | Ahmed, Arif |
| author_variant | a a aa |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| callnumber-first | B - Philosophy, Psychology, Religion |
| callnumber-label | BD184 |
| callnumber-raw | BD184 .A36 2014eb |
| callnumber-search | BD184 .A36 2014eb |
| callnumber-sort | BD 3184 A36 42014EB |
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| contents | Cover; Halftitle; Title; Copyright; Contents; Preface; Introduction; 0.1 Causalism and evidentialism; 0.2 Evidence; 0.3 Causality; 0.4 Decision theory; 0.5 Evidential Decision Theory and Causal Decision Theory; 0.6 Predestination; 0.7 Why it matters; Chapter 1 Savage; 1.1 Simplifications and idealizations; 1.2 States, events, outcomes and acts; 1.3 Rational preference and the Savage axioms; 1.4 From preference to probability; 1.5 Utility and the representation theorem; 1.6 Dominance and fatalism; Chapter 2 EDT and CDT; 2.1 Preference over news items; 2.2 The Jeffrey-Bolker axioms 2.3 Credence2.4 Evidential Decision Theory; 2.5 Newcomb's problem; 2.6 K-partitions; 2.7 Causal Decision Theory; 2.8 Matters arising; Chapter 3 Causalist objections to CDT; 3.1 Egan-Gibbard; 3.2 The Piaf maxim; 3.3 Objective Decision Theory; Chapter 4 Realistic cases; 4.1 Remedial cases; 4.2 Medical cases; 4.3 The Tickle Defence; 4.4 Economic cases; 4.5 Psychological cases; 4.6 Prisoners' Dilemma; Chapter 5 Deterministic cases; 5.1 Betting on the Past; 5.2 Betting on the Laws; 5.3 Objections; 5.4 The openness of the past; Chapter 6 Quantum-mechanical cases; 6.1 The device 6.2 Identical settings6.3 Non-identical settings; 6.4 QM versus CDT; 6.5 Objections; Chapter 7 The standard Newcomb case; 7.1 Deflationary responses; 7.2 The Discontinuous Strategy; 7.3 The case for one-boxing; 7.4 The case for two-boxing; 7.5 Conclusion; Chapter 8 'The ultimate contingency'; 8.1 Dualism and the Ramsey Thesis; 8.2 Arguments for the Ramsey Thesis; 8.3 Dynamic inconsistency and Dutch books; 8.4 Anti-dualism; References; Index |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)885208712 |
| dewey-full | 122 |
| dewey-hundreds | 100 - Philosophy & psychology |
| dewey-ones | 122 - Causation |
| dewey-raw | 122 |
| dewey-search | 122 |
| dewey-sort | 3122 |
| dewey-tens | 120 - Epistemology, causation, humankind |
| discipline | Philosophie |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:26:07Z |
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| isbn | 9781316072622 1316072622 9781139107990 1139107992 1316077357 9781316077351 |
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| publisher | Cambridge University Press, |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Ahmed, Arif. Evidence, decision, and causality / Arif Ahmed, University of Cambridge. New York : Cambridge University Press, 2014. 1 online resource text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index. Print version record. Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents. Cover; Halftitle; Title; Copyright; Contents; Preface; Introduction; 0.1 Causalism and evidentialism; 0.2 Evidence; 0.3 Causality; 0.4 Decision theory; 0.5 Evidential Decision Theory and Causal Decision Theory; 0.6 Predestination; 0.7 Why it matters; Chapter 1 Savage; 1.1 Simplifications and idealizations; 1.2 States, events, outcomes and acts; 1.3 Rational preference and the Savage axioms; 1.4 From preference to probability; 1.5 Utility and the representation theorem; 1.6 Dominance and fatalism; Chapter 2 EDT and CDT; 2.1 Preference over news items; 2.2 The Jeffrey-Bolker axioms 2.3 Credence2.4 Evidential Decision Theory; 2.5 Newcomb's problem; 2.6 K-partitions; 2.7 Causal Decision Theory; 2.8 Matters arising; Chapter 3 Causalist objections to CDT; 3.1 Egan-Gibbard; 3.2 The Piaf maxim; 3.3 Objective Decision Theory; Chapter 4 Realistic cases; 4.1 Remedial cases; 4.2 Medical cases; 4.3 The Tickle Defence; 4.4 Economic cases; 4.5 Psychological cases; 4.6 Prisoners' Dilemma; Chapter 5 Deterministic cases; 5.1 Betting on the Past; 5.2 Betting on the Laws; 5.3 Objections; 5.4 The openness of the past; Chapter 6 Quantum-mechanical cases; 6.1 The device 6.2 Identical settings6.3 Non-identical settings; 6.4 QM versus CDT; 6.5 Objections; Chapter 7 The standard Newcomb case; 7.1 Deflationary responses; 7.2 The Discontinuous Strategy; 7.3 The case for one-boxing; 7.4 The case for two-boxing; 7.5 Conclusion; Chapter 8 'The ultimate contingency'; 8.1 Dualism and the Ramsey Thesis; 8.2 Arguments for the Ramsey Thesis; 8.3 Dynamic inconsistency and Dutch books; 8.4 Anti-dualism; References; Index Decision making. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 Evidence. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85045994 Causation. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85021459 Prise de décision. Évidence. decision making. aat PHILOSOPHY Epistemology. bisacsh Evidencia embne Toma de decisiones embne Causation fast Decision making fast Evidence fast has work: Evidence, decision, and causality (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGKmkmc9Mp9WpmbqJDmRgC https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Ahmed, Arif. Evidence, decision, and causality 9781107020894 (DLC) 2014020933 (OCoLC)879601888 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=786091 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Ahmed, Arif Evidence, decision, and causality / Cover; Halftitle; Title; Copyright; Contents; Preface; Introduction; 0.1 Causalism and evidentialism; 0.2 Evidence; 0.3 Causality; 0.4 Decision theory; 0.5 Evidential Decision Theory and Causal Decision Theory; 0.6 Predestination; 0.7 Why it matters; Chapter 1 Savage; 1.1 Simplifications and idealizations; 1.2 States, events, outcomes and acts; 1.3 Rational preference and the Savage axioms; 1.4 From preference to probability; 1.5 Utility and the representation theorem; 1.6 Dominance and fatalism; Chapter 2 EDT and CDT; 2.1 Preference over news items; 2.2 The Jeffrey-Bolker axioms 2.3 Credence2.4 Evidential Decision Theory; 2.5 Newcomb's problem; 2.6 K-partitions; 2.7 Causal Decision Theory; 2.8 Matters arising; Chapter 3 Causalist objections to CDT; 3.1 Egan-Gibbard; 3.2 The Piaf maxim; 3.3 Objective Decision Theory; Chapter 4 Realistic cases; 4.1 Remedial cases; 4.2 Medical cases; 4.3 The Tickle Defence; 4.4 Economic cases; 4.5 Psychological cases; 4.6 Prisoners' Dilemma; Chapter 5 Deterministic cases; 5.1 Betting on the Past; 5.2 Betting on the Laws; 5.3 Objections; 5.4 The openness of the past; Chapter 6 Quantum-mechanical cases; 6.1 The device 6.2 Identical settings6.3 Non-identical settings; 6.4 QM versus CDT; 6.5 Objections; Chapter 7 The standard Newcomb case; 7.1 Deflationary responses; 7.2 The Discontinuous Strategy; 7.3 The case for one-boxing; 7.4 The case for two-boxing; 7.5 Conclusion; Chapter 8 'The ultimate contingency'; 8.1 Dualism and the Ramsey Thesis; 8.2 Arguments for the Ramsey Thesis; 8.3 Dynamic inconsistency and Dutch books; 8.4 Anti-dualism; References; Index Decision making. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 Evidence. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85045994 Causation. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85021459 Prise de décision. Évidence. decision making. aat PHILOSOPHY Epistemology. bisacsh Evidencia embne Toma de decisiones embne Causation fast Decision making fast Evidence fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85045994 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85021459 |
| title | Evidence, decision, and causality / |
| title_auth | Evidence, decision, and causality / |
| title_exact_search | Evidence, decision, and causality / |
| title_full | Evidence, decision, and causality / Arif Ahmed, University of Cambridge. |
| title_fullStr | Evidence, decision, and causality / Arif Ahmed, University of Cambridge. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evidence, decision, and causality / Arif Ahmed, University of Cambridge. |
| title_short | Evidence, decision, and causality / |
| title_sort | evidence decision and causality |
| topic | Decision making. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 Evidence. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85045994 Causation. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85021459 Prise de décision. Évidence. decision making. aat PHILOSOPHY Epistemology. bisacsh Evidencia embne Toma de decisiones embne Causation fast Decision making fast Evidence fast |
| topic_facet | Decision making. Evidence. Causation. Prise de décision. Évidence. decision making. PHILOSOPHY Epistemology. Evidencia Toma de decisiones Causation Decision making Evidence |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=786091 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ahmedarif evidencedecisionandcausality |