Deciding to enter a monetary union :: the role of trade and financial linkages /
This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from joining the euro. We evaluate two alternative scenarios. In t...
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Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2012.
|
Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/12/240. |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
Zusammenfassung: | This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from joining the euro. We evaluate two alternative scenarios. In the first one, we consider a reduction of trade costs that occurs after the adoption of a common currency. In the second, we introduce interest rate spread shocks of the same magnitude as the ones observed during the recent debt crisis in Europe. The reduction of trade costs generates a net welfare gain of 0.9 percent of life-time consumption, while the increased interest rate spread volatility generates a net welfare cost of 2.9 percentage points. The welfare calculation suggests two ways to preserve the welfare gains in a monetary union: ensuring fiscal and financial stability that reduces macroeconomic country risk, and increasing wage flexibility such that the economy adjusts to external shocks faster. |
Beschreibung: | Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed October 5, 2012). "Institute for Capacity Development." "October 2012." |
Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (52 pages) |
Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references. |
ISBN: | 9781475512434 1475512430 1475511434 9781475511437 1475512252 9781475512250 1475512260 9781475512267 |
Internformat
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245 | 1 | 0 | |a Deciding to enter a monetary union : |b the role of trade and financial linkages / |c prepared by Ruy Lama and Pau Rabanal. |
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520 | |a This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from joining the euro. We evaluate two alternative scenarios. In the first one, we consider a reduction of trade costs that occurs after the adoption of a common currency. In the second, we introduce interest rate spread shocks of the same magnitude as the ones observed during the recent debt crisis in Europe. The reduction of trade costs generates a net welfare gain of 0.9 percent of life-time consumption, while the increased interest rate spread volatility generates a net welfare cost of 2.9 percentage points. The welfare calculation suggests two ways to preserve the welfare gains in a monetary union: ensuring fiscal and financial stability that reduces macroeconomic country risk, and increasing wage flexibility such that the economy adjusts to external shocks faster. | ||
504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
500 | |a "Institute for Capacity Development." | ||
500 | |a "October 2012." | ||
505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households, International Assets Markets, and Staggered Wage Setting; 2.2 Firms; 2.3 Closing the Model; 3. Bayesian Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Model Dynamics and Data Transformations; 3.3 Estimation: Priors and Posteriors; 4. Policy Analysis: Welfare Gains of Entering a Monetary Union; 5. Sensitivity Analysis; 6. Conclusions; Technical Appendix; References; Tables; Table 1 Calibrated Parameters; Table 2 Prior Distributions; Table 3 Posterior Distributions, structural parameters; Table 4 Posterior Distributions, shocks parameters. | |
505 | 8 | |a Table 5 Second MomentsTable 6 Steady State Effects and Welfare Gains; Table 7 Business Cycle Effects and Welfare Gains; Figures; Figure 1 Monetary Policy Rates in United Kingdom and the Euro Area: 1999-2011; Figure 2 Trade with Euro Area in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom; Figure 3 Risk Premium in France, Italy, Spain the United Kingdom; Figure 4 Impulse Response Functions to 25 basis points increase in UIP Shock; Figure 5 Sensitivity Analysis of Welfare. | |
546 | |a English. | ||
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650 | 6 | |a Unions monétaires |z Europe. | |
650 | 6 | |a Unions monétaires |z Europe |x Modèles économétriques. | |
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700 | 1 | |a Rabanal, Pau. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2003090735 | |
710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Institute for Capacity Development. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2012075144 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
DE-BY-FWS_katkey | ZDB-4-EBA-ocn812047994 |
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adam_text | |
any_adam_object | |
author | Lama, Ruy, 1975- |
author2 | Rabanal, Pau |
author2_role | |
author2_variant | p r pr |
author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2003097517 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2003090735 |
author_corporate | International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development |
author_corporate_role | |
author_facet | Lama, Ruy, 1975- Rabanal, Pau International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development |
author_role | |
author_sort | Lama, Ruy, 1975- |
author_variant | r l rl |
building | Verbundindex |
bvnumber | localFWS |
callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
callnumber-label | HG3881 |
callnumber-raw | HG3881.5.I58 W67 No. 240eb |
callnumber-search | HG3881.5.I58 W67 No. 240eb |
callnumber-sort | HG 43881.5 I58 W67 NO 3240EB |
callnumber-subject | HG - Finance |
collection | ZDB-4-EBA |
contents | Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households, International Assets Markets, and Staggered Wage Setting; 2.2 Firms; 2.3 Closing the Model; 3. Bayesian Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Model Dynamics and Data Transformations; 3.3 Estimation: Priors and Posteriors; 4. Policy Analysis: Welfare Gains of Entering a Monetary Union; 5. Sensitivity Analysis; 6. Conclusions; Technical Appendix; References; Tables; Table 1 Calibrated Parameters; Table 2 Prior Distributions; Table 3 Posterior Distributions, structural parameters; Table 4 Posterior Distributions, shocks parameters. Table 5 Second MomentsTable 6 Steady State Effects and Welfare Gains; Table 7 Business Cycle Effects and Welfare Gains; Figures; Figure 1 Monetary Policy Rates in United Kingdom and the Euro Area: 1999-2011; Figure 2 Trade with Euro Area in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom; Figure 3 Risk Premium in France, Italy, Spain the United Kingdom; Figure 4 Impulse Response Functions to 25 basis points increase in UIP Shock; Figure 5 Sensitivity Analysis of Welfare. |
ctrlnum | (OCoLC)812047994 |
dewey-full | 332/.494 |
dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
dewey-ones | 332 - Financial economics |
dewey-raw | 332/.494 |
dewey-search | 332/.494 |
dewey-sort | 3332 3494 |
dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
format | Electronic eBook |
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geographic | Europe fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJxCxPbbk4CPJDQJb4r6rq |
geographic_facet | Europe |
id | ZDB-4-EBA-ocn812047994 |
illustrated | Not Illustrated |
indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:24:59Z |
institution | BVB |
institution_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2012075144 |
isbn | 9781475512434 1475512430 1475511434 9781475511437 1475512252 9781475512250 1475512260 9781475512267 |
language | English |
oclc_num | 812047994 |
open_access_boolean | |
owner | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
owner_facet | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
physical | 1 online resource (52 pages) |
psigel | ZDB-4-EBA |
publishDate | 2012 |
publishDateSearch | 2012 |
publishDateSort | 2012 |
publisher | International Monetary Fund, |
record_format | marc |
series | IMF working paper ; |
series2 | IMF working paper ; |
spelling | Lama, Ruy, 1975- https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjrQrk6j6BJrQhcfW6xMj3 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2003097517 Deciding to enter a monetary union : the role of trade and financial linkages / prepared by Ruy Lama and Pau Rabanal. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012. 1 online resource (52 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier polychrome. rdacc http://rdaregistry.info/termList/RDAColourContent/1003 data file IMF working paper ; WP/240 Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed October 5, 2012). This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from joining the euro. We evaluate two alternative scenarios. In the first one, we consider a reduction of trade costs that occurs after the adoption of a common currency. In the second, we introduce interest rate spread shocks of the same magnitude as the ones observed during the recent debt crisis in Europe. The reduction of trade costs generates a net welfare gain of 0.9 percent of life-time consumption, while the increased interest rate spread volatility generates a net welfare cost of 2.9 percentage points. The welfare calculation suggests two ways to preserve the welfare gains in a monetary union: ensuring fiscal and financial stability that reduces macroeconomic country risk, and increasing wage flexibility such that the economy adjusts to external shocks faster. Includes bibliographical references. "Institute for Capacity Development." "October 2012." Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households, International Assets Markets, and Staggered Wage Setting; 2.2 Firms; 2.3 Closing the Model; 3. Bayesian Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Model Dynamics and Data Transformations; 3.3 Estimation: Priors and Posteriors; 4. Policy Analysis: Welfare Gains of Entering a Monetary Union; 5. Sensitivity Analysis; 6. Conclusions; Technical Appendix; References; Tables; Table 1 Calibrated Parameters; Table 2 Prior Distributions; Table 3 Posterior Distributions, structural parameters; Table 4 Posterior Distributions, shocks parameters. Table 5 Second MomentsTable 6 Steady State Effects and Welfare Gains; Table 7 Business Cycle Effects and Welfare Gains; Figures; Figure 1 Monetary Policy Rates in United Kingdom and the Euro Area: 1999-2011; Figure 2 Trade with Euro Area in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom; Figure 3 Risk Premium in France, Italy, Spain the United Kingdom; Figure 4 Impulse Response Functions to 25 basis points increase in UIP Shock; Figure 5 Sensitivity Analysis of Welfare. English. Economic and Monetary Union. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no98066087 Economic and Monetary Union fast Monetary unions Europe. Monetary unions Europe Econometric models. Eurozone. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2002007527 Eurozone Econometric models. Unions monétaires Europe. Unions monétaires Europe Modèles économétriques. Zone euro. Zone euro Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Eurozone fast Monetary unions fast Monetary unions Econometric models fast Europe fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJxCxPbbk4CPJDQJb4r6rq Rabanal, Pau. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2003090735 International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2012075144 1-4755-1243-0 1-4755-1143-4 IMF working paper ; WP/12/240. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568138 Volltext |
spellingShingle | Lama, Ruy, 1975- Deciding to enter a monetary union : the role of trade and financial linkages / IMF working paper ; Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households, International Assets Markets, and Staggered Wage Setting; 2.2 Firms; 2.3 Closing the Model; 3. Bayesian Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Model Dynamics and Data Transformations; 3.3 Estimation: Priors and Posteriors; 4. Policy Analysis: Welfare Gains of Entering a Monetary Union; 5. Sensitivity Analysis; 6. Conclusions; Technical Appendix; References; Tables; Table 1 Calibrated Parameters; Table 2 Prior Distributions; Table 3 Posterior Distributions, structural parameters; Table 4 Posterior Distributions, shocks parameters. Table 5 Second MomentsTable 6 Steady State Effects and Welfare Gains; Table 7 Business Cycle Effects and Welfare Gains; Figures; Figure 1 Monetary Policy Rates in United Kingdom and the Euro Area: 1999-2011; Figure 2 Trade with Euro Area in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom; Figure 3 Risk Premium in France, Italy, Spain the United Kingdom; Figure 4 Impulse Response Functions to 25 basis points increase in UIP Shock; Figure 5 Sensitivity Analysis of Welfare. Economic and Monetary Union. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no98066087 Economic and Monetary Union fast Monetary unions Europe. Monetary unions Europe Econometric models. Eurozone. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2002007527 Eurozone Econometric models. Unions monétaires Europe. Unions monétaires Europe Modèles économétriques. Zone euro. Zone euro Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Eurozone fast Monetary unions fast Monetary unions Econometric models fast |
subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no98066087 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2002007527 |
title | Deciding to enter a monetary union : the role of trade and financial linkages / |
title_auth | Deciding to enter a monetary union : the role of trade and financial linkages / |
title_exact_search | Deciding to enter a monetary union : the role of trade and financial linkages / |
title_full | Deciding to enter a monetary union : the role of trade and financial linkages / prepared by Ruy Lama and Pau Rabanal. |
title_fullStr | Deciding to enter a monetary union : the role of trade and financial linkages / prepared by Ruy Lama and Pau Rabanal. |
title_full_unstemmed | Deciding to enter a monetary union : the role of trade and financial linkages / prepared by Ruy Lama and Pau Rabanal. |
title_short | Deciding to enter a monetary union : |
title_sort | deciding to enter a monetary union the role of trade and financial linkages |
title_sub | the role of trade and financial linkages / |
topic | Economic and Monetary Union. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no98066087 Economic and Monetary Union fast Monetary unions Europe. Monetary unions Europe Econometric models. Eurozone. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2002007527 Eurozone Econometric models. Unions monétaires Europe. Unions monétaires Europe Modèles économétriques. Zone euro. Zone euro Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. bisacsh Eurozone fast Monetary unions fast Monetary unions Econometric models fast |
topic_facet | Economic and Monetary Union. Economic and Monetary Union Monetary unions Europe. Monetary unions Europe Econometric models. Eurozone. Eurozone Econometric models. Unions monétaires Europe. Unions monétaires Europe Modèles économétriques. Zone euro. Zone euro Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Finance. Eurozone Monetary unions Monetary unions Econometric models Europe |
url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568138 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT lamaruy decidingtoenteramonetaryuniontheroleoftradeandfinanciallinkages AT rabanalpau decidingtoenteramonetaryuniontheroleoftradeandfinanciallinkages AT internationalmonetaryfundinstituteforcapacitydevelopment decidingtoenteramonetaryuniontheroleoftradeandfinanciallinkages |