Public debt dynamics :: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks /
The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment,...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2012.
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/12/230. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. |
| Beschreibung: | At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. "September 2012." |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (28 pages) : charts |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16). |
| ISBN: | 1475541279 9781475541274 1475510551 9781475510553 1475565542 9781475565546 1475593759 9781475593754 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Cherif, Reda. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2009159654 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Public debt dynamics : |b the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / |c Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov. |
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| 500 | |a At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. | ||
| 500 | |a "September 2012." | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16). | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV- ); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B. | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Debts, Public |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Inflation (Finance) |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85066112 | |
| 650 | 2 | |a Inflation, Economic |0 https://id.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/D007250 | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Dettes publiques |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique fiscale |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Inflation. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Public Finance. |2 bisacsh | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a Fiscal policy |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 651 | 7 | |a United States |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq | |
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| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Cherif, Reda |
| author2 | Hasanov, Fuad, 1978- |
| author2_role | |
| author2_variant | f h fh |
| author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2009159654 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2009070142 |
| author_corporate | International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development |
| author_corporate_role | |
| author_facet | Cherif, Reda Hasanov, Fuad, 1978- International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development |
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| contents | Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock. 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV- ); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A. A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)810063419 |
| dewey-full | 336.3/40973 |
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| dewey-ones | 336 - Public finance |
| dewey-raw | 336.3/40973 |
| dewey-search | 336.3/40973 |
| dewey-sort | 3336.3 540973 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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14-16).</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV- ); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">A2. 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| genre | IMF pub. ilot pub FMI. tbit pub FMI. toit |
| genre_facet | IMF pub. pub FMI. |
| geographic | United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq USA. ilot Etats-Unis. tbit Estados Unidos. toit |
| geographic_facet | United States USA. Etats-Unis. Estados Unidos. |
| id | ZDB-4-EBA-ocn810063419 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-10-25T16:21:02Z |
| institution | BVB |
| institution_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2012075144 |
| isbn | 1475541279 9781475541274 1475510551 9781475510553 1475565542 9781475565546 1475593759 9781475593754 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 810063419 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | MAIN |
| owner_facet | MAIN |
| physical | 1 online resource (28 pages) : charts |
| psigel | ZDB-4-EBA |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateSearch | 2012 |
| publishDateSort | 2012 |
| publisher | International Monetary Fund, |
| record_format | marc |
| series | IMF working paper ; |
| series2 | IMF working paper ; |
| spelling | Cherif, Reda. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2009159654 Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012. 1 online resource (28 pages) : charts text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier polychrome. rdacc http://rdaregistry.info/termList/RDAColourContent/1003 data file IMF working paper ; WP/12/230 At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. "September 2012." Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16). The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock. 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV- ); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A. A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B. English. Debts, Public United States Econometric models. Fiscal policy United States Econometric models. Inflation (Finance) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85066112 Inflation, Economic https://id.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/D007250 Dettes publiques États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Inflation. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Public Finance. bisacsh Debts, Public Econometric models fast Fiscal policy Econometric models fast United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq public debt. ilot inflation. ilot economic growth. ilot USA. ilot dette publique. tbit inflation. tbit croissance économique. tbit Etats-Unis. tbit deuda pública. toit inflación. toit crecimiento económico. toit Estados Unidos. toit IMF pub. ilot pub FMI. tbit pub FMI. toit Hasanov, Fuad, 1978- https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjF3TMt67TCBkTCHpYFqcP http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2009070142 International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2012075144 has work: Public debt dynamics (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCH3TGhhFPGxXPXTXhVJXbd https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork 1-4755-4127-9 1-4755-1055-1 IMF working paper ; WP/12/230. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568181 Volltext CBO01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568181 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Cherif, Reda Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / IMF working paper ; Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock. 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV- ); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A. A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B. Debts, Public United States Econometric models. Fiscal policy United States Econometric models. Inflation (Finance) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85066112 Inflation, Economic https://id.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/D007250 Dettes publiques États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Inflation. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Public Finance. bisacsh Debts, Public Econometric models fast Fiscal policy Econometric models fast public debt. ilot inflation. ilot economic growth. ilot dette publique. tbit inflation. tbit croissance économique. tbit deuda pública. toit inflación. toit crecimiento económico. toit |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85066112 https://id.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/D007250 |
| title | Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / |
| title_auth | Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / |
| title_exact_search | Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / |
| title_full | Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov. |
| title_fullStr | Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov. |
| title_short | Public debt dynamics : |
| title_sort | public debt dynamics the effects of austerity inflation and growth shocks |
| title_sub | the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / |
| topic | Debts, Public United States Econometric models. Fiscal policy United States Econometric models. Inflation (Finance) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85066112 Inflation, Economic https://id.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/D007250 Dettes publiques États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Inflation. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Public Finance. bisacsh Debts, Public Econometric models fast Fiscal policy Econometric models fast public debt. ilot inflation. ilot economic growth. ilot dette publique. tbit inflation. tbit croissance économique. tbit deuda pública. toit inflación. toit crecimiento económico. toit |
| topic_facet | Debts, Public United States Econometric models. Fiscal policy United States Econometric models. Inflation (Finance) Inflation, Economic Dettes publiques États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Inflation. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Public Finance. Debts, Public Econometric models Fiscal policy Econometric models United States public debt. inflation. economic growth. USA. dette publique. croissance économique. Etats-Unis. deuda pública. inflación. crecimiento económico. Estados Unidos. IMF pub. pub FMI. |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568181 |
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