Counterinsurgency scorecard :: Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years /
The previously published RAND monograph, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, used detailed case studies of the 30 insurgencies worldwide begun and completed between 1978 and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A core finding was tha...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Körperschaften: | , |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Monica, CA :
RAND,
2011.
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) ;
OP-337-OSD. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The previously published RAND monograph, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, used detailed case studies of the 30 insurgencies worldwide begun and completed between 1978 and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A core finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 12 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly predicted the outcome of those 30 insurgencies. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND project sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi, exercise in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2011 Afghanistan scores in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses: its score was lower than that in the lowest-scoring historical COIN win but higher than that in the highest-scoring COIN loss. This suggests an uncertain outcome in Afghanistan, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (19 pages) |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references (page 19). |
| ISBN: | 9780833058133 0833058134 9780833058119 0833058118 1283223074 9781283223072 9786613223074 6613223077 |
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| 520 | |a The previously published RAND monograph, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, used detailed case studies of the 30 insurgencies worldwide begun and completed between 1978 and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A core finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 12 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly predicted the outcome of those 30 insurgencies. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND project sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi, exercise in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2011 Afghanistan scores in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses: its score was lower than that in the lowest-scoring historical COIN win but higher than that in the highest-scoring COIN loss. This suggests an uncertain outcome in Afghanistan, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue. | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (page 19). | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Abstract; Findings from Previous Research on 30 Years of Insurgency1; The Counterinsurgency Scorecard; Scoring Afghanistan in 2011; Detailed Factors in the Current Case; Afghanistan in Comparison to Specific Historical Cases; Conclusions and Recommendations; Appendix; Details of the Expert Elicitation; The Delphi Method; The RAND Afghanistan Delphi Exercise; Raw Delphi Scores; References. | |
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| author | Paul, Christopher, 1971- |
| author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2004002382 |
| author_corporate | Rand Corporation National Defense Research Institute (U.S.) |
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| contents | Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Abstract; Findings from Previous Research on 30 Years of Insurgency1; The Counterinsurgency Scorecard; Scoring Afghanistan in 2011; Detailed Factors in the Current Case; Afghanistan in Comparison to Specific Historical Cases; Conclusions and Recommendations; Appendix; Details of the Expert Elicitation; The Delphi Method; The RAND Afghanistan Delphi Exercise; Raw Delphi Scores; References. |
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| discipline | Militärwissenschaft |
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| genre | Case studies fast |
| genre_facet | Case studies |
| geographic | Afghanistan fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJjXpC7xxDYf4fj9jQq4v3 |
| geographic_facet | Afghanistan |
| id | ZDB-4-EBA-ocn733496281 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:17:53Z |
| institution | BVB |
| institution_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n78083407 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n91060525 |
| isbn | 9780833058133 0833058134 9780833058119 0833058118 1283223074 9781283223072 9786613223074 6613223077 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 733496281 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 online resource (19 pages) |
| psigel | ZDB-4-EBA |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateSearch | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | RAND, |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) ; |
| series2 | Occasional paper ; |
| spelling | Paul, Christopher, 1971- https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjM84fqYBcVCwtYfjQjf4q http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2004002382 Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / Christopher Paul. Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past thirty years Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2011. 1 online resource (19 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Occasional paper ; OP-337-OSD The previously published RAND monograph, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, used detailed case studies of the 30 insurgencies worldwide begun and completed between 1978 and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A core finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 12 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly predicted the outcome of those 30 insurgencies. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND project sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi, exercise in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2011 Afghanistan scores in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses: its score was lower than that in the lowest-scoring historical COIN win but higher than that in the highest-scoring COIN loss. This suggests an uncertain outcome in Afghanistan, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue. Includes bibliographical references (page 19). Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Abstract; Findings from Previous Research on 30 Years of Insurgency1; The Counterinsurgency Scorecard; Scoring Afghanistan in 2011; Detailed Factors in the Current Case; Afghanistan in Comparison to Specific Historical Cases; Conclusions and Recommendations; Appendix; Details of the Expert Elicitation; The Delphi Method; The RAND Afghanistan Delphi Exercise; Raw Delphi Scores; References. English. Counterinsurgency Afghanistan. Contre-rébellion Afghānistān. HISTORY Military Other. bisacsh TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh COMPUTERS Data Modeling & Design. bisacsh Counterinsurgency fast Afghanistan fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJjXpC7xxDYf4fj9jQq4v3 Military & Naval Science. hilcc Law - U.S. hilcc Law, Politics & Government. hilcc Law - U.S. - General. hilcc Military Science - General. hilcc Case studies fast Rand Corporation. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n78083407 National Defense Research Institute (U.S.) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n91060525 has work: Counterinsurgency scorecard (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFvDjGVvWHbHgYHxQDf3pK https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Counterinsurgency Scorecard. Rand Corp 2011 9780833058133 (OCoLC)741548298 Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) ; OP-337-OSD. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2004031492 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=376632 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Paul, Christopher, 1971- Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) ; Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Abstract; Findings from Previous Research on 30 Years of Insurgency1; The Counterinsurgency Scorecard; Scoring Afghanistan in 2011; Detailed Factors in the Current Case; Afghanistan in Comparison to Specific Historical Cases; Conclusions and Recommendations; Appendix; Details of the Expert Elicitation; The Delphi Method; The RAND Afghanistan Delphi Exercise; Raw Delphi Scores; References. Counterinsurgency Afghanistan. Contre-rébellion Afghānistān. HISTORY Military Other. bisacsh TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh COMPUTERS Data Modeling & Design. bisacsh Counterinsurgency fast Military & Naval Science. hilcc Law - U.S. hilcc Law, Politics & Government. hilcc Law - U.S. - General. hilcc Military Science - General. hilcc |
| title | Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / |
| title_alt | Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past thirty years |
| title_auth | Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / |
| title_exact_search | Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / |
| title_full | Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / Christopher Paul. |
| title_fullStr | Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / Christopher Paul. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / Christopher Paul. |
| title_short | Counterinsurgency scorecard : |
| title_sort | counterinsurgency scorecard afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years |
| title_sub | Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years / |
| topic | Counterinsurgency Afghanistan. Contre-rébellion Afghānistān. HISTORY Military Other. bisacsh TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh COMPUTERS Data Modeling & Design. bisacsh Counterinsurgency fast Military & Naval Science. hilcc Law - U.S. hilcc Law, Politics & Government. hilcc Law - U.S. - General. hilcc Military Science - General. hilcc |
| topic_facet | Counterinsurgency Afghanistan. Contre-rébellion Afghānistān. HISTORY Military Other. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. COMPUTERS Data Modeling & Design. Counterinsurgency Afghanistan Military & Naval Science. Law - U.S. Law, Politics & Government. Law - U.S. - General. Military Science - General. Case studies |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=376632 |
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