Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems /:
Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic metho...
Gespeichert in:
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Monica, CA :
Rand, Project Air Force,
2005.
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by "debiasing" the presentation of information. A newer literature on "naturalistic" decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of "cold" and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty |
| Beschreibung: | "Prepared for the United States Air Force, approved for Public release; distribution unlimited." "MG-360-AF"--Page 4 cover |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (xxiv, 156 pages) : illustrations |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| ISBN: | 9780833040886 083304088X 9780833041135 0833041134 |
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| 520 | |a Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by "debiasing" the presentation of information. A newer literature on "naturalistic" decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of "cold" and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty | ||
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| geographic | United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq |
| geographic_facet | United States |
| id | ZDB-4-EBA-ocn228143769 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:16:21Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780833040886 083304088X 9780833041135 0833041134 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 228143769 |
| open_access_boolean | |
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| owner_facet | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 online resource (xxiv, 156 pages) : illustrations |
| psigel | ZDB-4-EBA |
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| spelling | Davis, Paul K., 1943- https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjtJrY3jb7VGYkpf86G3jP http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n83053170 Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner. Santa Monica, CA : Rand, Project Air Force, 2005. 1 online resource (xxiv, 156 pages) : illustrations text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier data file "Prepared for the United States Air Force, approved for Public release; distribution unlimited." "MG-360-AF"--Page 4 cover Includes bibliographical references. Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by "debiasing" the presentation of information. A newer literature on "naturalistic" decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of "cold" and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty Print version record. United States. Air Force Research. Air Force United States. États-Unis. Air Force Recherche. United States. Air Force fast Military planning United States Decision making Data processing. Decision support systems. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh86006549 Planification militaire États-Unis Prise de décision Informatique. Systèmes d'aide à la décision. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh Decision support systems fast Military planning Decision making Data processing fast Armed Forces Research fast United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq Kulick, Jonathan, 1966- https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjt9fMPR8BjHWjTPQjDd6X http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2002153473 Egner, Michael. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2005034200 has work: Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFwxRdJMJ6JM7R8w3Tr6Xb https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Books at JSTOR: Open Access JSTOR Print version: Davis, Paul K., 1943- Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems. Santa Monica, CA : Rand, Project Air Force, 2005 0833038087 (DLC) 2005013419 (OCoLC)60419618 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=197664 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Davis, Paul K., 1943- Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / United States. Air Force Research. Air Force United States. États-Unis. Air Force Recherche. United States. Air Force fast Military planning United States Decision making Data processing. Decision support systems. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh86006549 Planification militaire États-Unis Prise de décision Informatique. Systèmes d'aide à la décision. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh Decision support systems fast Military planning Decision making Data processing fast Armed Forces Research fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh86006549 |
| title | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / |
| title_auth | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / |
| title_exact_search | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / |
| title_full | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner. |
| title_fullStr | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner. |
| title_short | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems / |
| title_sort | implications of modern decision science for military decision support systems |
| topic | United States. Air Force Research. Air Force United States. États-Unis. Air Force Recherche. United States. Air Force fast Military planning United States Decision making Data processing. Decision support systems. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh86006549 Planification militaire États-Unis Prise de décision Informatique. Systèmes d'aide à la décision. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh Decision support systems fast Military planning Decision making Data processing fast Armed Forces Research fast |
| topic_facet | United States. Air Force Research. Air Force United States. États-Unis. Air Force Recherche. United States. Air Force Military planning United States Decision making Data processing. Decision support systems. Planification militaire États-Unis Prise de décision Informatique. Systèmes d'aide à la décision. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. Decision support systems Military planning Decision making Data processing Armed Forces Research United States |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=197664 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davispaulk implicationsofmoderndecisionscienceformilitarydecisionsupportsystems AT kulickjonathan implicationsofmoderndecisionscienceformilitarydecisionsupportsystems AT egnermichael implicationsofmoderndecisionscienceformilitarydecisionsupportsystems |