Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn: A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09
Macro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the household level. While it is possible to speculate about which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking. This paper suggests a straight forward appr...
Gespeichert in:
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2010
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers
no.110 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Zusammenfassung: | Macro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the household level. While it is possible to speculate about which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking. This paper suggests a straight forward approach to gauge the distributional and scale implications of large output changes at an early stage. We illustrate the method with an evaluation of the impact of the 2008-2009 crisis in Germany. We take as a starting point a very detailed administrative matched employer-employee dataset to estimate labor demand and predict the effects of output shocks at a disaggregated level. The predicted employment effects are then transposed to household-level micro data, in order to analyze the incidence of rising unemployment and reduced working hours on poverty and inequality. We focus on two alternative scenarios of the labor demand adjustment process, one based on reductions in hours (intensive margin) and close to the German experience, and the other assuming extensive margin adjustments that take place through layoffs (close to the US situation). Our results suggest that the distributional and scale consequences are less severe when labor demand reacts along the intensive margin. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. |
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| spelling | Immervoll, Herwig VerfasserIn aut Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 Herwig, Immervoll ... [et al] Paris OECD Publishing 2010 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers no.110 Macro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the household level. While it is possible to speculate about which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking. This paper suggests a straight forward approach to gauge the distributional and scale implications of large output changes at an early stage. We illustrate the method with an evaluation of the impact of the 2008-2009 crisis in Germany. We take as a starting point a very detailed administrative matched employer-employee dataset to estimate labor demand and predict the effects of output shocks at a disaggregated level. The predicted employment effects are then transposed to household-level micro data, in order to analyze the incidence of rising unemployment and reduced working hours on poverty and inequality. We focus on two alternative scenarios of the labor demand adjustment process, one based on reductions in hours (intensive margin) and close to the German experience, and the other assuming extensive margin adjustments that take place through layoffs (close to the US situation). Our results suggest that the distributional and scale consequences are less severe when labor demand reacts along the intensive margin. Employment Social Issues/Migration/Health Germany Bargain, Olivier MitwirkendeR ctb Peichl, Andreas MitwirkendeR ctb Siegloch, Sebastien MitwirkendeR ctb |
| spellingShingle | Immervoll, Herwig Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 Employment Social Issues/Migration/Health Germany |
| title | Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 |
| title_auth | Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 |
| title_exact_search | Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 |
| title_full | Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 Herwig, Immervoll ... [et al] |
| title_fullStr | Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 Herwig, Immervoll ... [et al] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 Herwig, Immervoll ... [et al] |
| title_short | Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn |
| title_sort | distributional consequences of labor demand adjustments to a downturn a model based approach with application to germany 2008 09 |
| title_sub | A Model-Based Approach with Application to Germany 2008-09 |
| topic | Employment Social Issues/Migration/Health Germany |
| topic_facet | Employment Social Issues/Migration/Health Germany |
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