Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen: Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs
Indicators of "trust", "confidence", "optimism" or "sentiment" among consumers and/or investors, are published continuously in the mass media. More importantly, these indices seem not only to reflect how the state of the real economy is perceived by private ag...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2006
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Indicators of "trust", "confidence", "optimism" or "sentiment" among consumers and/or investors, are published continuously in the mass media. More importantly, these indices seem not only to reflect how the state of the real economy is perceived by private agents, but can also help predict the future course of the business cycle. Moreover, in econometric analyses they have even been found to "cause" business activity. In this paper, we intend to provide a theoretical foundation for how "pessimism" and "optimism", in conjunction with estimation errors committed by private agents and contagion effects, can drive the real economy. Furthermore, the model presented is capable of incorporating the revision of expectations of private agents through Bayesian updating and to create a fully endogenized business cycle of private consumption. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art5-en |
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| spelling | Sell, Friedrich L... VerfasserIn aut Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs Friedrich L., Sell Paris OECD Publishing 2006 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Indicators of "trust", "confidence", "optimism" or "sentiment" among consumers and/or investors, are published continuously in the mass media. More importantly, these indices seem not only to reflect how the state of the real economy is perceived by private agents, but can also help predict the future course of the business cycle. Moreover, in econometric analyses they have even been found to "cause" business activity. In this paper, we intend to provide a theoretical foundation for how "pessimism" and "optimism", in conjunction with estimation errors committed by private agents and contagion effects, can drive the real economy. Furthermore, the model presented is capable of incorporating the revision of expectations of private agents through Bayesian updating and to create a fully endogenized business cycle of private consumption. Economics Enthalten in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2005, no. 2, p. 249-276 volume:2005 year:2005 number:2 pages:249-276 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art5-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Sell, Friedrich L.. Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs Economics |
| title | Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs |
| title_auth | Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs |
| title_exact_search | Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs |
| title_full | Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs Friedrich L., Sell |
| title_fullStr | Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs Friedrich L., Sell |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs Friedrich L., Sell |
| title_short | Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen |
| title_sort | optimism pessimism and the unforeseen modelling an endogenous business cycle driven by strong beliefs |
| title_sub | Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art5-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sellfriedrichl optimismpessimismandtheunforeseenmodellinganendogenousbusinesscycledrivenbystrongbeliefs |