Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area?: A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition
The Optimal Currency Area theory stresses the importance of co-movement of the business cycles of member states in order for the common currency to be successful. Yet, the identification of (European) business cycles has been inconclusive and is complicated by the enlargement to the new member state...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
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OECD Publishing
2012
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| Zusammenfassung: | The Optimal Currency Area theory stresses the importance of co-movement of the business cycles of member states in order for the common currency to be successful. Yet, the identification of (European) business cycles has been inconclusive and is complicated by the enlargement to the new member states in 2004 and their transition to market economies. In this paper, we show how to decompose a business cycle into a time-frequency framework in a way that allows us to compare the growth rate spectra and coherences for the Hungarian, Polish, Czech, German and French economies. We find that, since joining the EU, there has been convergence on the euro area economy at short cycle lengths, but little convergence in long cycles. We argue that this shows evidence of nominal convergence, but little real convergence. The standard Maastricht convergence criteria for membership of the euro therefore need to be adapted to test for real convergence. JEL Classification: C22, C29, C49, F43, O49 Keywords: Time-Frequency Analysis, Coherence, Growth Rates, Business Cycles |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (20 p.) 21 x 28cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-2011-5kg0nvzlqkf0 |
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| spelling | Hallett, Andrew Hughes VerfasserIn aut Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition Andrew Hughes, Hallett and Christian R., Richter Paris OECD Publishing 2012 1 Online-Ressource (20 p.) 21 x 28cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier The Optimal Currency Area theory stresses the importance of co-movement of the business cycles of member states in order for the common currency to be successful. Yet, the identification of (European) business cycles has been inconclusive and is complicated by the enlargement to the new member states in 2004 and their transition to market economies. In this paper, we show how to decompose a business cycle into a time-frequency framework in a way that allows us to compare the growth rate spectra and coherences for the Hungarian, Polish, Czech, German and French economies. We find that, since joining the EU, there has been convergence on the euro area economy at short cycle lengths, but little convergence in long cycles. We argue that this shows evidence of nominal convergence, but little real convergence. The standard Maastricht convergence criteria for membership of the euro therefore need to be adapted to test for real convergence. JEL Classification: C22, C29, C49, F43, O49 Keywords: Time-Frequency Analysis, Coherence, Growth Rates, Business Cycles Economics Richter, Christian R... MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2011, no. 2, p. 49-68 volume:2011 year:2011 number:2 pages:49-68 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2011-5kg0nvzlqkf0 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Hallett, Andrew Hughes Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition Economics |
| title | Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition |
| title_auth | Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition |
| title_exact_search | Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition |
| title_full | Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition Andrew Hughes, Hallett and Christian R., Richter |
| title_fullStr | Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition Andrew Hughes, Hallett and Christian R., Richter |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition Andrew Hughes, Hallett and Christian R., Richter |
| title_short | Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area? |
| title_sort | are the new member states converging on the euro area a business cycle analysis for economies in transition |
| title_sub | A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2011-5kg0nvzlqkf0 |
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