Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS: A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS
This paper extends the OECD Economics Department's suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries. Reflecting the relative scarcity of high-quality macroeconomic time series, the paper adopts a small-scale brid...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2014
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| Series: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.1109 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Summary: | This paper extends the OECD Economics Department's suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries. Reflecting the relative scarcity of high-quality macroeconomic time series, the paper adopts a small-scale bridge model approach. The results suggest that in terms of short-term forecast accuracy for the first and second quarter following the most recent GDP release these models outperform simple autoregressive or constant growth benchmarks. The small-scale indicator models would have allowed the identification of the growth slowdown during the global crisis of 2008-09 and the subsequent rebound several months ahead of official GDP releases. Overall, forecast accuracy appears to be similar to that of the existing indicator model suite for the G7 countries, especially once the higher GDP growth volatility in most BRIICS is accounted for. |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. |
Staff View
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| spelling | Chalaux, Thomas VerfasserIn aut Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS Thomas, Chalaux and Cyrille, Schwellnus Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS Paris OECD Publishing 2014 1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1109 This paper extends the OECD Economics Department's suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries. Reflecting the relative scarcity of high-quality macroeconomic time series, the paper adopts a small-scale bridge model approach. The results suggest that in terms of short-term forecast accuracy for the first and second quarter following the most recent GDP release these models outperform simple autoregressive or constant growth benchmarks. The small-scale indicator models would have allowed the identification of the growth slowdown during the global crisis of 2008-09 and the subsequent rebound several months ahead of official GDP releases. Overall, forecast accuracy appears to be similar to that of the existing indicator model suite for the G7 countries, especially once the higher GDP growth volatility in most BRIICS is accounted for. Economics Schwellnus, Cyrille MitwirkendeR ctb |
| spellingShingle | Chalaux, Thomas Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS Economics |
| title | Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS |
| title_alt | Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS |
| title_auth | Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS |
| title_exact_search | Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS |
| title_full | Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS Thomas, Chalaux and Cyrille, Schwellnus |
| title_fullStr | Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS Thomas, Chalaux and Cyrille, Schwellnus |
| title_full_unstemmed | Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS Thomas, Chalaux and Cyrille, Schwellnus |
| title_short | Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS |
| title_sort | short term indicator models for quarterly gdp growth in the briics a small scale bridge model approach modeles d indicateurs de la croissance du pib a court terme dans les briics |
| title_sub | A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach = Modèles d'indicateurs de la croissance du PIB à court terme dans les BRIICS |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
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