A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections:
This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections - both "current year" and "year ahead" - for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The s...
Gespeichert in:
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2000
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.274 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections - both "current year" and "year ahead" - for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The sample period differs somewhat between the variables, depending on data availability, but it runs until 1998 in all cases. Several evaluation criteria were used to assess the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections. These include an inspection of projection error summary statistics; comparisons with "naive" alternative forecasts; statistical tests for unbiasedness and efficiency; and testing for directional accuracy. In addition, the paper provides an examination of the performance of OECD Economic Outlook projections over different time periods. The findings suggest that, on the basis of the conventional statistical criteria, the current year projections outperform the year ahead projections ... |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (51 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/351822846618 |
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| spelling | Koutsogeorgopoulou, Vassiliki VerfasserIn aut A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections Vassiliki, Koutsogeorgopoulou Paris OECD Publishing 2000 1 Online-Ressource (51 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.274 This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections - both "current year" and "year ahead" - for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The sample period differs somewhat between the variables, depending on data availability, but it runs until 1998 in all cases. Several evaluation criteria were used to assess the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections. These include an inspection of projection error summary statistics; comparisons with "naive" alternative forecasts; statistical tests for unbiasedness and efficiency; and testing for directional accuracy. In addition, the paper provides an examination of the performance of OECD Economic Outlook projections over different time periods. The findings suggest that, on the basis of the conventional statistical criteria, the current year projections outperform the year ahead projections ... Economics FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/351822846618 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Koutsogeorgopoulou, Vassiliki A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections Economics |
| title | A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections |
| title_auth | A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections |
| title_exact_search | A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections |
| title_full | A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections Vassiliki, Koutsogeorgopoulou |
| title_fullStr | A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections Vassiliki, Koutsogeorgopoulou |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections Vassiliki, Koutsogeorgopoulou |
| title_short | A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections |
| title_sort | post mortem on economic outlook projections |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/351822846618 |
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