Turning point chronology for the euro area: A distance plot approach
We propose a transparent way of establishing a turning point chronology for the euro area business cycle. Our analysis is achieved by exploiting the concept of recurrence plots, in particular distance plots, to characterise and detect turning points of the business cycle. Firstly, we apply the conce...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2014
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| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | We propose a transparent way of establishing a turning point chronology for the euro area business cycle. Our analysis is achieved by exploiting the concept of recurrence plots, in particular distance plots, to characterise and detect turning points of the business cycle. Firstly, we apply the concept of recurrence plots on the US Industrial Production Index (IPI) series; this serves as a benchmark for our analysis since it already contains a reference chronology for the US business cycle, as provided by the Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). We then use this concept to construct a turning point chronology for the euro area business cycle. In particular, we show that this approach detects turning points and helps with the study of the business cycle without a priori assumptions on the statistical properties of the underlying economic indicator. Keywords: economic cycles; euro area; recurrence plots; turning points JEL classification: C14, C40, E32 |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) 21 x 28cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-2014-5jxwz80d73q8 |
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| spelling | Addo, Peter Martey VerfasserIn aut Turning point chronology for the euro area A distance plot approach Peter Martey, Addo, Monica, Billio and Dominique, Guégan Paris OECD Publishing 2014 1 Online-Ressource (14 p.) 21 x 28cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier We propose a transparent way of establishing a turning point chronology for the euro area business cycle. Our analysis is achieved by exploiting the concept of recurrence plots, in particular distance plots, to characterise and detect turning points of the business cycle. Firstly, we apply the concept of recurrence plots on the US Industrial Production Index (IPI) series; this serves as a benchmark for our analysis since it already contains a reference chronology for the US business cycle, as provided by the Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). We then use this concept to construct a turning point chronology for the euro area business cycle. In particular, we show that this approach detects turning points and helps with the study of the business cycle without a priori assumptions on the statistical properties of the underlying economic indicator. Keywords: economic cycles; euro area; recurrence plots; turning points JEL classification: C14, C40, E32 Economics Euro Area Billio, Monica MitwirkendeR ctb Guégan, Dominique MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 1-14 volume:2014 year:2014 number:1 pages:1-14 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2014-5jxwz80d73q8 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Addo, Peter Martey Turning point chronology for the euro area A distance plot approach Economics Euro Area |
| title | Turning point chronology for the euro area A distance plot approach |
| title_auth | Turning point chronology for the euro area A distance plot approach |
| title_exact_search | Turning point chronology for the euro area A distance plot approach |
| title_full | Turning point chronology for the euro area A distance plot approach Peter Martey, Addo, Monica, Billio and Dominique, Guégan |
| title_fullStr | Turning point chronology for the euro area A distance plot approach Peter Martey, Addo, Monica, Billio and Dominique, Guégan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Turning point chronology for the euro area A distance plot approach Peter Martey, Addo, Monica, Billio and Dominique, Guégan |
| title_short | Turning point chronology for the euro area |
| title_sort | turning point chronology for the euro area a distance plot approach |
| title_sub | A distance plot approach |
| topic | Economics Euro Area |
| topic_facet | Economics Euro Area |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2014-5jxwz80d73q8 |
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