Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method: A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference
This paper presents a new methodology for the quantification of qualitative survey data. Traditional conversion methods, such as the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (1975) or the time-varying parameters model of Seitz (1988), require very restrictive assumptions concerning the expectation...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
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2006
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| Zusammenfassung: | This paper presents a new methodology for the quantification of qualitative survey data. Traditional conversion methods, such as the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (1975) or the time-varying parameters model of Seitz (1988), require very restrictive assumptions concerning the expectations formation process of survey respondents. Above all, the unbiasedness of expectations, which is a necessary condition for rationality, is imposed. Our approach avoids this assumptions. The novelty lies in the way the boundaries inside of which survey respondents expect the variable under consideration to remain unchanged are determined. Instead of deriving these boundaries from the statistical properties of the reference time-series (which necessitates the unbiasedness assumption), we directly queried them from survey respondents by a special question in the Ifo World Economic Survey. The new methodology is then applied to expectations about the future development of inflation obtained from the Ifo World Economic Survey. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (32 p.) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art8-en |
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| spelling | Henzel, Steffen VerfasserIn aut Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Steffen, Henzel and Timo, Wollmershäuser Paris OECD Publishing 2006 1 Online-Ressource (32 p.) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This paper presents a new methodology for the quantification of qualitative survey data. Traditional conversion methods, such as the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (1975) or the time-varying parameters model of Seitz (1988), require very restrictive assumptions concerning the expectations formation process of survey respondents. Above all, the unbiasedness of expectations, which is a necessary condition for rationality, is imposed. Our approach avoids this assumptions. The novelty lies in the way the boundaries inside of which survey respondents expect the variable under consideration to remain unchanged are determined. Instead of deriving these boundaries from the statistical properties of the reference time-series (which necessitates the unbiasedness assumption), we directly queried them from survey respondents by a special question in the Ifo World Economic Survey. The new methodology is then applied to expectations about the future development of inflation obtained from the Ifo World Economic Survey. Economics Wollmershäuser, Timo MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2005, no. 3, p. 321-352 volume:2005 year:2005 number:3 pages:321-352 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art8-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Henzel, Steffen Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Economics |
| title | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| title_auth | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| title_exact_search | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| title_full | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Steffen, Henzel and Timo, Wollmershäuser |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Steffen, Henzel and Timo, Wollmershäuser |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Steffen, Henzel and Timo, Wollmershäuser |
| title_short | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method |
| title_sort | quantifying inflation expectations with the carlson parkin method a survey based determination of the just noticeable difference |
| title_sub | A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art8-en |
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