The Economic Sentiment Indicator: Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States
This paper assesses the leading indicator properties of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) of the European Commission, as well as two of its subcomponents, for industrial production growth. For this purpose we perform correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, an assessment on the ability to...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2008
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| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper assesses the leading indicator properties of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) of the European Commission, as well as two of its subcomponents, for industrial production growth. For this purpose we perform correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, an assessment on the ability to predict turning points and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Within a panel setting we compare the characteristics of these indicators for two subgroups of EU countries: the EU-15 and the new EU member states. We show that the forecasting quality and the leading indicator properties are still slightly lagging behind in the group of new EU member states. This may be related to the general problem of data quality and the undergone history of structural change in these countries that makes the assessment of future economic prospects particularly difficult. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (17 p.) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art11-en |
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| 520 | |a This paper assesses the leading indicator properties of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) of the European Commission, as well as two of its subcomponents, for industrial production growth. For this purpose we perform correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, an assessment on the ability to predict turning points and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Within a panel setting we compare the characteristics of these indicators for two subgroups of EU countries: the EU-15 and the new EU member states. We show that the forecasting quality and the leading indicator properties are still slightly lagging behind in the group of new EU member states. This may be related to the general problem of data quality and the undergone history of structural change in these countries that makes the assessment of future economic prospects particularly difficult. | ||
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| spelling | Silgoner, Maria Antoinette VerfasserIn aut The Economic Sentiment Indicator Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States Maria Antoinette, Silgoner Paris OECD Publishing 2008 1 Online-Ressource (17 p.) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This paper assesses the leading indicator properties of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) of the European Commission, as well as two of its subcomponents, for industrial production growth. For this purpose we perform correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, an assessment on the ability to predict turning points and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Within a panel setting we compare the characteristics of these indicators for two subgroups of EU countries: the EU-15 and the new EU member states. We show that the forecasting quality and the leading indicator properties are still slightly lagging behind in the group of new EU member states. This may be related to the general problem of data quality and the undergone history of structural change in these countries that makes the assessment of future economic prospects particularly difficult. Economics Enthalten in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2007, no. 2, p. 199-215 volume:2007 year:2007 number:2 pages:199-215 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art11-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Silgoner, Maria Antoinette The Economic Sentiment Indicator Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States Economics |
| title | The Economic Sentiment Indicator Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States |
| title_auth | The Economic Sentiment Indicator Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States |
| title_exact_search | The Economic Sentiment Indicator Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States |
| title_full | The Economic Sentiment Indicator Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States Maria Antoinette, Silgoner |
| title_fullStr | The Economic Sentiment Indicator Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States Maria Antoinette, Silgoner |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Economic Sentiment Indicator Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States Maria Antoinette, Silgoner |
| title_short | The Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| title_sort | economic sentiment indicator leading indicator properties in old and new eu member states |
| title_sub | Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art11-en |
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