Are Global Imbalances Sustainable?: Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ?
Large shifts in countries' external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises. As a result, an empirical literature has emerged on the sustainability of, and the determinants of lar...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Weitere Verfasser: | , |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2010
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.813 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | DE-863 |
| Zusammenfassung: | Large shifts in countries' external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises. As a result, an empirical literature has emerged on the sustainability of, and the determinants of large swings in, current account positions. We shed further light on this issue by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account balance-to-GDP ratios of a large set of mature and emerging-market economies using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in intercepts and trends. We then construct a chronology of current account reversals that is consistent with sustainability of external positions and use it to estimate the factors explaining the likelihood and magnitude of such reversals using a selection model with ordered probit in the first stage. We find that most of the factors that explain the probability of reversals, such as trends in capital flows, in the budget balance and in external positions, also influence their magnitude. But there are a few exceptions. For instance, the stance of monetary policy and the magnitude of external imbalances prior to a reversal seem to be more powerful predictors of the probability of reversals than of their magnitude. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000cam a22000002 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | ZDB-13-SOC-061282766 | ||
| 003 | DE-627-1 | ||
| 005 | 20241028114255.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210204s2010 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/5km4m2x07xhb-en |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627-1)061282766 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KEP061282766 | ||
| 035 | |a (FR-PaOEC)5km4m2x07xhb-en | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-627-1)061282766 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 084 | |a C35 |2 jelc | ||
| 084 | |a C32 |2 jelc | ||
| 084 | |a F32 |2 jelc | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a de Mello, Luiz |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? |b Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? |c Luiz, de Mello, Pier Carlo, Padoan and Linda, Rousová |
| 246 | 3 | 1 | |a Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2010 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) |c 21 x 29.7cm. | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a OECD Economics Department Working Papers |v no.813 | |
| 520 | |a Large shifts in countries' external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises. As a result, an empirical literature has emerged on the sustainability of, and the determinants of large swings in, current account positions. We shed further light on this issue by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account balance-to-GDP ratios of a large set of mature and emerging-market economies using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in intercepts and trends. We then construct a chronology of current account reversals that is consistent with sustainability of external positions and use it to estimate the factors explaining the likelihood and magnitude of such reversals using a selection model with ordered probit in the first stage. We find that most of the factors that explain the probability of reversals, such as trends in capital flows, in the budget balance and in external positions, also influence their magnitude. But there are a few exceptions. For instance, the stance of monetary policy and the magnitude of external imbalances prior to a reversal seem to be more powerful predictors of the probability of reversals than of their magnitude. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Padoan, Pier Carlo |e MitwirkendeR |4 ctb | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rousová, Linda |e MitwirkendeR |4 ctb | |
| 966 | 4 | 0 | |l DE-863 |p ZDB-13-SOC |q FWS_PDA_SOC |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5km4m2x07xhb-en |m X:OECD |x Resolving-System |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC-ebook | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 951 | |a BO | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 049 | |a DE-863 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | ZDB-13-SOC-061282766 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1825938770610880512 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | de Mello, Luiz |
| author2 | Padoan, Pier Carlo Rousová, Linda |
| author2_role | ctb ctb |
| author2_variant | p c p pc pcp l r lr |
| author_facet | de Mello, Luiz Padoan, Pier Carlo Rousová, Linda |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | de Mello, Luiz |
| author_variant | m l d ml mld |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-ebook |
| ctrlnum | (DE-627-1)061282766 (DE-599)KEP061282766 (FR-PaOEC)5km4m2x07xhb-en |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02802cam a22004212 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">ZDB-13-SOC-061282766</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627-1</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20241028114255.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">210204s2010 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/5km4m2x07xhb-en</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627-1)061282766</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)KEP061282766</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(FR-PaOEC)5km4m2x07xhb-en</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627-1)061282766</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">C35</subfield><subfield code="2">jelc</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">C32</subfield><subfield code="2">jelc</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">F32</subfield><subfield code="2">jelc</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">de Mello, Luiz</subfield><subfield code="e">VerfasserIn</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Are Global Imbalances Sustainable?</subfield><subfield code="b">Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ?</subfield><subfield code="c">Luiz, de Mello, Pier Carlo, Padoan and Linda, Rousová</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="246" ind1="3" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ?</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2010</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten)</subfield><subfield code="c">21 x 29.7cm.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">OECD Economics Department Working Papers</subfield><subfield code="v">no.813</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Large shifts in countries' external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises. As a result, an empirical literature has emerged on the sustainability of, and the determinants of large swings in, current account positions. We shed further light on this issue by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account balance-to-GDP ratios of a large set of mature and emerging-market economies using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in intercepts and trends. We then construct a chronology of current account reversals that is consistent with sustainability of external positions and use it to estimate the factors explaining the likelihood and magnitude of such reversals using a selection model with ordered probit in the first stage. We find that most of the factors that explain the probability of reversals, such as trends in capital flows, in the budget balance and in external positions, also influence their magnitude. But there are a few exceptions. For instance, the stance of monetary policy and the magnitude of external imbalances prior to a reversal seem to be more powerful predictors of the probability of reversals than of their magnitude.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Padoan, Pier Carlo</subfield><subfield code="e">MitwirkendeR</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Rousová, Linda</subfield><subfield code="e">MitwirkendeR</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="l">DE-863</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="q">FWS_PDA_SOC</subfield><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5km4m2x07xhb-en</subfield><subfield code="m">X:OECD</subfield><subfield code="x">Resolving-System</subfield><subfield code="z">lizenzpflichtig</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC-ebook</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="951" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">BO</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | ZDB-13-SOC-061282766 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-03-07T12:35:08Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-ebook |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publishDateSearch | 2010 |
| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | OECD Economics Department Working Papers |
| spelling | de Mello, Luiz VerfasserIn aut Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? Luiz, de Mello, Pier Carlo, Padoan and Linda, Rousová Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? Paris OECD Publishing 2010 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.813 Large shifts in countries' external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises. As a result, an empirical literature has emerged on the sustainability of, and the determinants of large swings in, current account positions. We shed further light on this issue by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account balance-to-GDP ratios of a large set of mature and emerging-market economies using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in intercepts and trends. We then construct a chronology of current account reversals that is consistent with sustainability of external positions and use it to estimate the factors explaining the likelihood and magnitude of such reversals using a selection model with ordered probit in the first stage. We find that most of the factors that explain the probability of reversals, such as trends in capital flows, in the budget balance and in external positions, also influence their magnitude. But there are a few exceptions. For instance, the stance of monetary policy and the magnitude of external imbalances prior to a reversal seem to be more powerful predictors of the probability of reversals than of their magnitude. Economics Padoan, Pier Carlo MitwirkendeR ctb Rousová, Linda MitwirkendeR ctb |
| spellingShingle | de Mello, Luiz Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? Economics |
| title | Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? |
| title_alt | Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? |
| title_auth | Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? |
| title_exact_search | Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? |
| title_full | Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? Luiz, de Mello, Pier Carlo, Padoan and Linda, Rousová |
| title_fullStr | Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? Luiz, de Mello, Pier Carlo, Padoan and Linda, Rousová |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? Luiz, de Mello, Pier Carlo, Padoan and Linda, Rousová |
| title_short | Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? |
| title_sort | are global imbalances sustainable shedding further light on the causes of current account reversals les desequilibres mondiaux sont ils viables |
| title_sub | Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils viables ? |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT demelloluiz areglobalimbalancessustainablesheddingfurtherlightonthecausesofcurrentaccountreversalslesdesequilibresmondiauxsontilsviables AT padoanpiercarlo areglobalimbalancessustainablesheddingfurtherlightonthecausesofcurrentaccountreversalslesdesequilibresmondiauxsontilsviables AT rousovalinda areglobalimbalancessustainablesheddingfurtherlightonthecausesofcurrentaccountreversalslesdesequilibresmondiauxsontilsviables AT demelloluiz lesdesequilibresmondiauxsontilsviables AT padoanpiercarlo lesdesequilibresmondiauxsontilsviables AT rousovalinda lesdesequilibresmondiauxsontilsviables |