Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets:
The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OE...
Gespeichert in:
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2019
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers
no.131 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Zusammenfassung: | The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook publication. LAO describes the drivers of structural changes in global supply and demand, provides a baseline of real agricultural prices, and can be used to situate short and medium term price projections in a longer-term context. The model is also suitable for performing scenario analysis of long-term issues concerning agriculture, such as the links between food security and climate change. The model structure is similar to that of AGLINK-COSIMO, which enhances comparability, but much simpler, with highly aggregated commodity and regional groupings. The simplified structure makes it possible to make use of data on productivity growth in a way not possible in more complex models, and to investigate the role of long term drivers of productivity growth, in particular research spending. It also facilitates a focus on key macro-economic drivers of agricultural market developments. This report details the motivation, structure, and development of the model, alongside initial outputs. The baseline results indicate a lowering of real agricultural prices in the long run, as growth in global supply outpaces growth in global demand. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (41 Seiten) |
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| indexdate | 2025-03-18T14:29:24Z |
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| spelling | Saunders, John T... VerfasserIn aut Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets John T., Saunders, Marcel, Adenäuer and Jonathan, Brooks Paris OECD Publishing 2019 1 Online-Ressource (41 Seiten) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers no.131 The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook publication. LAO describes the drivers of structural changes in global supply and demand, provides a baseline of real agricultural prices, and can be used to situate short and medium term price projections in a longer-term context. The model is also suitable for performing scenario analysis of long-term issues concerning agriculture, such as the links between food security and climate change. The model structure is similar to that of AGLINK-COSIMO, which enhances comparability, but much simpler, with highly aggregated commodity and regional groupings. The simplified structure makes it possible to make use of data on productivity growth in a way not possible in more complex models, and to investigate the role of long term drivers of productivity growth, in particular research spending. It also facilitates a focus on key macro-economic drivers of agricultural market developments. This report details the motivation, structure, and development of the model, alongside initial outputs. The baseline results indicate a lowering of real agricultural prices in the long run, as growth in global supply outpaces growth in global demand. Agriculture and Food Adenäuer, Marcel MitwirkendeR ctb Brooks, Jonathan MitwirkendeR ctb |
| spellingShingle | Saunders, John T.. Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets Agriculture and Food |
| title | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets |
| title_auth | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets |
| title_exact_search | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets |
| title_full | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets John T., Saunders, Marcel, Adenäuer and Jonathan, Brooks |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets John T., Saunders, Marcel, Adenäuer and Jonathan, Brooks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets John T., Saunders, Marcel, Adenäuer and Jonathan, Brooks |
| title_short | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets |
| title_sort | analysis of long term challenges for agricultural markets |
| topic | Agriculture and Food |
| topic_facet | Agriculture and Food |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT saundersjohnt analysisoflongtermchallengesforagriculturalmarkets AT adenauermarcel analysisoflongtermchallengesforagriculturalmarkets AT brooksjonathan analysisoflongtermchallengesforagriculturalmarkets |