Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets:
The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OE...
Gespeichert in:
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2019
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers
no.131 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook publication. LAO describes the drivers of structural changes in global supply and demand, provides a baseline of real agricultural prices, and can be used to situate short and medium term price projections in a longer-term context. The model is also suitable for performing scenario analysis of long-term issues concerning agriculture, such as the links between food security and climate change. The model structure is similar to that of AGLINK-COSIMO, which enhances comparability, but much simpler, with highly aggregated commodity and regional groupings. The simplified structure makes it possible to make use of data on productivity growth in a way not possible in more complex models, and to investigate the role of long term drivers of productivity growth, in particular research spending. It also facilitates a focus on key macro-economic drivers of agricultural market developments. This report details the motivation, structure, and development of the model, alongside initial outputs. The baseline results indicate a lowering of real agricultural prices in the long run, as growth in global supply outpaces growth in global demand. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (41 p.) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/dafae86c-en |
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| spelling | Saunders, John T... VerfasserIn aut Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets John T., Saunders, Marcel, Adenäuer and Jonathan, Brooks Paris OECD Publishing 2019 1 Online-Ressource (41 p.) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers no.131 The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook publication. LAO describes the drivers of structural changes in global supply and demand, provides a baseline of real agricultural prices, and can be used to situate short and medium term price projections in a longer-term context. The model is also suitable for performing scenario analysis of long-term issues concerning agriculture, such as the links between food security and climate change. The model structure is similar to that of AGLINK-COSIMO, which enhances comparability, but much simpler, with highly aggregated commodity and regional groupings. The simplified structure makes it possible to make use of data on productivity growth in a way not possible in more complex models, and to investigate the role of long term drivers of productivity growth, in particular research spending. It also facilitates a focus on key macro-economic drivers of agricultural market developments. This report details the motivation, structure, and development of the model, alongside initial outputs. The baseline results indicate a lowering of real agricultural prices in the long run, as growth in global supply outpaces growth in global demand. Agriculture and Food Adenäuer, Marcel MitwirkendeR ctb Brooks, Jonathan MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/dafae86c-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Saunders, John T.. Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets Agriculture and Food |
| title | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets |
| title_auth | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets |
| title_exact_search | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets |
| title_full | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets John T., Saunders, Marcel, Adenäuer and Jonathan, Brooks |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets John T., Saunders, Marcel, Adenäuer and Jonathan, Brooks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets John T., Saunders, Marcel, Adenäuer and Jonathan, Brooks |
| title_short | Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets |
| title_sort | analysis of long term challenges for agricultural markets |
| topic | Agriculture and Food |
| topic_facet | Agriculture and Food |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/dafae86c-en |
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