Long-Term Growth Scenarios:
This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2013
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.1000 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (90 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en |
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| 520 | |a This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a de la Maisonneuve, Christine |e MitwirkendeR |4 ctb | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bagnoli, Philip |e MitwirkendeR |4 ctb | |
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| author | Johansson, Åsa |
| author2 | Guillemette, Yvan Murtin, Fabrice Turner, David Nicoletti, Giuseppe de la Maisonneuve, Christine Bagnoli, Philip Bousquet, Guillaume Spinelli, Francesca |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en |
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| spelling | Johansson, Åsa VerfasserIn aut Long-Term Growth Scenarios Åsa, Johansson ... [et al] = Scénarios de croissance à long terme / Åsa, Johansson ... [et al] Scénarios de croissance à long terme Paris OECD Publishing 2013 1 Online-Ressource (90 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1000 This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances. Economics Guillemette, Yvan MitwirkendeR ctb Murtin, Fabrice MitwirkendeR ctb Turner, David MitwirkendeR ctb Nicoletti, Giuseppe MitwirkendeR ctb de la Maisonneuve, Christine MitwirkendeR ctb Bagnoli, Philip MitwirkendeR ctb Bousquet, Guillaume MitwirkendeR ctb Spinelli, Francesca MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Johansson, Åsa Long-Term Growth Scenarios Economics |
| title | Long-Term Growth Scenarios |
| title_alt | Scénarios de croissance à long terme |
| title_auth | Long-Term Growth Scenarios |
| title_exact_search | Long-Term Growth Scenarios |
| title_full | Long-Term Growth Scenarios Åsa, Johansson ... [et al] = Scénarios de croissance à long terme / Åsa, Johansson ... [et al] |
| title_fullStr | Long-Term Growth Scenarios Åsa, Johansson ... [et al] = Scénarios de croissance à long terme / Åsa, Johansson ... [et al] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-Term Growth Scenarios Åsa, Johansson ... [et al] = Scénarios de croissance à long terme / Åsa, Johansson ... [et al] |
| title_short | Long-Term Growth Scenarios |
| title_sort | long term growth scenarios |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en |
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