Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation:
This paper uses survey data in order to analyse and assess the empirical properties of consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area and explores their role in explaining the observed dynamics of inflation. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of euro area infl...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
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OECD Publishing
2004
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| Online-Zugang: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper uses survey data in order to analyse and assess the empirical properties of consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area and explores their role in explaining the observed dynamics of inflation. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of euro area inflation expectations from the qualitative data from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of rationality. In particular, the surveyed expectations are an unbiased predictor of future price developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - the information contained in a broad set of macroeconomic variables. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually "weed out" any systematic expectational errors... |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (29 Seiten) |
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| 520 | |a This paper uses survey data in order to analyse and assess the empirical properties of consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area and explores their role in explaining the observed dynamics of inflation. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of euro area inflation expectations from the qualitative data from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of rationality. In particular, the surveyed expectations are an unbiased predictor of future price developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - the information contained in a broad set of macroeconomic variables. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually "weed out" any systematic expectational errors... | ||
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| indexdate | 2025-03-18T14:29:39Z |
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| spelling | Forsells, Magnus VerfasserIn aut Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Magnus, Forsells and Geoff, Kenny Paris OECD Publishing 2004 1 Online-Ressource (29 Seiten) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This paper uses survey data in order to analyse and assess the empirical properties of consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area and explores their role in explaining the observed dynamics of inflation. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of euro area inflation expectations from the qualitative data from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of rationality. In particular, the surveyed expectations are an unbiased predictor of future price developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - the information contained in a broad set of macroeconomic variables. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually "weed out" any systematic expectational errors... Economics Kenny, Geoff MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 13-41 volume:2004 year:2004 number:1 pages:13-41 |
| spellingShingle | Forsells, Magnus Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Economics |
| title | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_auth | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_exact_search | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_full | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Magnus, Forsells and Geoff, Kenny |
| title_fullStr | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Magnus, Forsells and Geoff, Kenny |
| title_full_unstemmed | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Magnus, Forsells and Geoff, Kenny |
| title_short | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_sort | survey expectations rationality and the dynamics of euro area inflation |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT forsellsmagnus surveyexpectationsrationalityandthedynamicsofeuroareainflation AT kennygeoff surveyexpectationsrationalityandthedynamicsofeuroareainflation |