Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy:
This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographic...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2015
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| Zusammenfassung: | This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies. JEL classification codes: E23, E27, F02, F17, F47 Keywords: General equilibrium trade model, long-term trade and specialisation patterns, trade liberalisation |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (34 p.) 21 x 28cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/eco_studies-2015-5jrs63llqgjl |
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| 520 | |a This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies. JEL classification codes: E23, E27, F02, F17, F47 Keywords: General equilibrium trade model, long-term trade and specialisation patterns, trade liberalisation | ||
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| spelling | Chateau, Jean VerfasserIn aut Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy Jean, Chateau ... [et al] Paris OECD Publishing 2015 1 Online-Ressource (34 p.) 21 x 28cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies. JEL classification codes: E23, E27, F02, F17, F47 Keywords: General equilibrium trade model, long-term trade and specialisation patterns, trade liberalisation Economics Fontagné, Lionel MitwirkendeR ctb Fouré, Jean MitwirkendeR ctb Johansson, Åsa MitwirkendeR ctb Olaberría, Eduardo MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in OECD Journal: Economic Studies Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 67-100 volume:2015 year:2015 number:1 pages:67-100 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2015-5jrs63llqgjl Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Chateau, Jean Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy Economics |
| title | Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy |
| title_auth | Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy |
| title_exact_search | Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy |
| title_full | Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy Jean, Chateau ... [et al] |
| title_fullStr | Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy Jean, Chateau ... [et al] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy Jean, Chateau ... [et al] |
| title_short | Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy |
| title_sort | trade patterns in the 2060 world economy |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2015-5jrs63llqgjl |
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