Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland: A Success Story?
Qualitative survey data on inflation expectations can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of probability methods implemented to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations. Inflation expectations constitute a subj...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2006
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Qualitative survey data on inflation expectations can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of probability methods implemented to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations. Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of inflation targeting. One of commonly emphasised features of this strategy is that it has proved to be useful in anchoring inflation expectations. The paper proposes a manner in which the achievement of this goal may be assessed ex-post. It is argued that to make such an assessment it is not sufficient to examine changes in the level of inflation expectations relative to inflation target, but it is necessary to analyse in detail the formation of inflation expectations, in particular the degree to which requirements of rational expectations hypothesis, namely: unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficency, are fulfilled. The examination of consumer expectations in Poland leads to the conclusion that even if the adoption of inflation targeting in Poland in 1998 and the commitment of monetary authorities to reach price stability reflected in a fast disinflation process decreased the level of inflation expectations, it has not sufficiently increased their rationality yet. On the other hand, there appear some signs of consumer inflation expectations in Poland becoming slightly more forwardlooking in the most recent period. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a22000002 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | ZDB-13-SOC-061256439 | ||
| 003 | DE-627-1 | ||
| 005 | 20231204120948.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210204s2006 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627-1)061256439 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KEP061256439 | ||
| 035 | |a (FR-PaOEC)jbcma-v2005-art3-en | ||
| 035 | |a (EBP)061256439 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Lysiak, Tomasz |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland |b A Success Story? |c Tomasz, Lysiak |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2006 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a Qualitative survey data on inflation expectations can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of probability methods implemented to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations. Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of inflation targeting. One of commonly emphasised features of this strategy is that it has proved to be useful in anchoring inflation expectations. The paper proposes a manner in which the achievement of this goal may be assessed ex-post. It is argued that to make such an assessment it is not sufficient to examine changes in the level of inflation expectations relative to inflation target, but it is necessary to analyse in detail the formation of inflation expectations, in particular the degree to which requirements of rational expectations hypothesis, namely: unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficency, are fulfilled. The examination of consumer expectations in Poland leads to the conclusion that even if the adoption of inflation targeting in Poland in 1998 and the commitment of monetary authorities to reach price stability reflected in a fast disinflation process decreased the level of inflation expectations, it has not sufficiently increased their rationality yet. On the other hand, there appear some signs of consumer inflation expectations in Poland becoming slightly more forwardlooking in the most recent period. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Poland | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis |g Vol. 2005, no. 2, p. 185-212 |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:2005 |g year:2005 |g number:2 |g pages:185-212 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |l FWS01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |q FWS_PDA_SOC |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC-article | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 049 | |a DE-863 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | ZDB-13-SOC-061256439 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1816797354275110913 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Lysiak, Tomasz |
| author_facet | Lysiak, Tomasz |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Lysiak, Tomasz |
| author_variant | t l tl |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-article |
| ctrlnum | (DE-627-1)061256439 (DE-599)KEP061256439 (FR-PaOEC)jbcma-v2005-art3-en (EBP)061256439 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en |
| format | Electronic Article |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02772caa a22003732 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">ZDB-13-SOC-061256439</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627-1</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20231204120948.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">210204s2006 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627-1)061256439</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)KEP061256439</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(FR-PaOEC)jbcma-v2005-art3-en</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(EBP)061256439</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Lysiak, Tomasz</subfield><subfield code="e">VerfasserIn</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland</subfield><subfield code="b">A Success Story?</subfield><subfield code="c">Tomasz, Lysiak</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2006</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (28 p.)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Qualitative survey data on inflation expectations can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of probability methods implemented to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations. Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of inflation targeting. One of commonly emphasised features of this strategy is that it has proved to be useful in anchoring inflation expectations. The paper proposes a manner in which the achievement of this goal may be assessed ex-post. It is argued that to make such an assessment it is not sufficient to examine changes in the level of inflation expectations relative to inflation target, but it is necessary to analyse in detail the formation of inflation expectations, in particular the degree to which requirements of rational expectations hypothesis, namely: unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficency, are fulfilled. The examination of consumer expectations in Poland leads to the conclusion that even if the adoption of inflation targeting in Poland in 1998 and the commitment of monetary authorities to reach price stability reflected in a fast disinflation process decreased the level of inflation expectations, it has not sufficiently increased their rationality yet. On the other hand, there appear some signs of consumer inflation expectations in Poland becoming slightly more forwardlooking in the most recent period.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Poland</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis</subfield><subfield code="g">Vol. 2005, no. 2, p. 185-212</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="1" ind2="8"><subfield code="g">volume:2005</subfield><subfield code="g">year:2005</subfield><subfield code="g">number:2</subfield><subfield code="g">pages:185-212</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="l">FWS01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="q">FWS_PDA_SOC</subfield><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC-article</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="951" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | ZDB-13-SOC-061256439 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:56:14Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-article |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Lysiak, Tomasz VerfasserIn aut Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland A Success Story? Tomasz, Lysiak Paris OECD Publishing 2006 1 Online-Ressource (28 p.) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Qualitative survey data on inflation expectations can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of probability methods implemented to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations. Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of inflation targeting. One of commonly emphasised features of this strategy is that it has proved to be useful in anchoring inflation expectations. The paper proposes a manner in which the achievement of this goal may be assessed ex-post. It is argued that to make such an assessment it is not sufficient to examine changes in the level of inflation expectations relative to inflation target, but it is necessary to analyse in detail the formation of inflation expectations, in particular the degree to which requirements of rational expectations hypothesis, namely: unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficency, are fulfilled. The examination of consumer expectations in Poland leads to the conclusion that even if the adoption of inflation targeting in Poland in 1998 and the commitment of monetary authorities to reach price stability reflected in a fast disinflation process decreased the level of inflation expectations, it has not sufficiently increased their rationality yet. On the other hand, there appear some signs of consumer inflation expectations in Poland becoming slightly more forwardlooking in the most recent period. Economics Poland Enthalten in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2005, no. 2, p. 185-212 volume:2005 year:2005 number:2 pages:185-212 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Lysiak, Tomasz Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland A Success Story? Economics Poland |
| title | Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland A Success Story? |
| title_auth | Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland A Success Story? |
| title_exact_search | Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland A Success Story? |
| title_full | Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland A Success Story? Tomasz, Lysiak |
| title_fullStr | Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland A Success Story? Tomasz, Lysiak |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland A Success Story? Tomasz, Lysiak |
| title_short | Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland |
| title_sort | inflation targeting and consumer inflation expectations in poland a success story |
| title_sub | A Success Story? |
| topic | Economics Poland |
| topic_facet | Economics Poland |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art3-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lysiaktomasz inflationtargetingandconsumerinflationexpectationsinpolandasuccessstory |