Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach
In this paper, a structural VAR model is estimated for 11 EU countries in order to assess the effect on the government deficit ratio of four independent economic disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand and monetary shocks. Based on the estimated distribution of these shocks, stochastic sim...
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| Sprache: | English |
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OECD Publishing
1999
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.216 |
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| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | In this paper, a structural VAR model is estimated for 11 EU countries in order to assess the effect on the government deficit ratio of four independent economic disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand and monetary shocks. Based on the estimated distribution of these shocks, stochastic simulations are performed to derive estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances that would have to be maintained to avoid breaching the Stability and Growth Pact's 3 per cent of GDP deficit limit over different time horizons and with varying degrees of confidence. In order to capture the movement in the deficit stemming from automatic stabilisation, fiscal policy shocks are turned off during the simulations. The results suggest that, for the majority of countries, if governments were to aim for a cyclically-adjusted budget deficit between 1.0 and 1.5 per cent of GDP, the actual deficit would, with a 90 per cent likelihood, remain within the 3 per cent limit over a three-year horizon ... |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (45 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/475132665781 |
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| spelling | Dalsgaard, Thomas VerfasserIn aut Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries A Simulated SVAR Model Approach Thomas, Dalsgaard and Alain, de Serres Paris OECD Publishing 1999 1 Online-Ressource (45 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.216 In this paper, a structural VAR model is estimated for 11 EU countries in order to assess the effect on the government deficit ratio of four independent economic disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand and monetary shocks. Based on the estimated distribution of these shocks, stochastic simulations are performed to derive estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances that would have to be maintained to avoid breaching the Stability and Growth Pact's 3 per cent of GDP deficit limit over different time horizons and with varying degrees of confidence. In order to capture the movement in the deficit stemming from automatic stabilisation, fiscal policy shocks are turned off during the simulations. The results suggest that, for the majority of countries, if governments were to aim for a cyclically-adjusted budget deficit between 1.0 and 1.5 per cent of GDP, the actual deficit would, with a 90 per cent likelihood, remain within the 3 per cent limit over a three-year horizon ... Economics de Serres, Alain MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/475132665781 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Dalsgaard, Thomas Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries A Simulated SVAR Model Approach Economics |
| title | Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries A Simulated SVAR Model Approach |
| title_auth | Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries A Simulated SVAR Model Approach |
| title_exact_search | Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries A Simulated SVAR Model Approach |
| title_full | Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries A Simulated SVAR Model Approach Thomas, Dalsgaard and Alain, de Serres |
| title_fullStr | Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries A Simulated SVAR Model Approach Thomas, Dalsgaard and Alain, de Serres |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries A Simulated SVAR Model Approach Thomas, Dalsgaard and Alain, de Serres |
| title_short | Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries |
| title_sort | estimating prudent budgetary margins for 11 eu countries a simulated svar model approach |
| title_sub | A Simulated SVAR Model Approach |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/475132665781 |
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