The OECD potential output estimation methodology:
This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy poten...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2019
|
| Series: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.1563 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Summary: | This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions. |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) |
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| spelling | Chalaux, Thomas VerfasserIn aut The OECD potential output estimation methodology Thomas, Chalaux and Yvan, Guillemette Paris OECD Publishing 2019 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1563 This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions. Economics Guillemette, Yvan MitwirkendeR ctb |
| spellingShingle | Chalaux, Thomas The OECD potential output estimation methodology Economics |
| title | The OECD potential output estimation methodology |
| title_auth | The OECD potential output estimation methodology |
| title_exact_search | The OECD potential output estimation methodology |
| title_full | The OECD potential output estimation methodology Thomas, Chalaux and Yvan, Guillemette |
| title_fullStr | The OECD potential output estimation methodology Thomas, Chalaux and Yvan, Guillemette |
| title_full_unstemmed | The OECD potential output estimation methodology Thomas, Chalaux and Yvan, Guillemette |
| title_short | The OECD potential output estimation methodology |
| title_sort | oecd potential output estimation methodology |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chalauxthomas theoecdpotentialoutputestimationmethodology AT guillemetteyvan theoecdpotentialoutputestimationmethodology AT chalauxthomas oecdpotentialoutputestimationmethodology AT guillemetteyvan oecdpotentialoutputestimationmethodology |