The world and "The world business cycle chronology":
Twenty-one individual country business cycle chronologies, maintained and updated by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), are analysed for their degree of synchronisation with a proposed "world business cycle chronology". Several key results emerge. First, perhaps not surprisingly...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Weitere Verfasser: | , |
| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2015
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Twenty-one individual country business cycle chronologies, maintained and updated by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), are analysed for their degree of synchronisation with a proposed "world business cycle chronology". Several key results emerge. First, perhaps not surprisingly, the world's four 20th Century locomotor economies of the US, UK, Germany and Japan are statistically significantly and reasonably strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle. Second, European countries in the sample are either positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag or with a lag of around three months. Third, the NAFTA countries (US, Canada and Mexico) are, perhaps again not unexpectedly, quite strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag and with each other. Fourth, the single South American country included in the sample, Brazil, is strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag as well as with the NAFTA countries - but behaves very differently from China and India with respect to the world cycle. Fifth, interestingly, the newly industrialized East Asian countries included in the sample appear to lead the world cycle by about three to nine months. Finally, and very interestingly, there appears to be some a priori evidence of a long leading negative synchronisation between the commodity exporting countries in the sample and the world cycle. Key words: world business cycle, synchronisation JEL classification: E32, E37 |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (18 p.) 21 x 28cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a22000002 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | ZDB-13-SOC-061254428 | ||
| 003 | DE-627-1 | ||
| 005 | 20231204121311.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210204s2015 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627-1)061254428 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KEP061254428 | ||
| 035 | |a (FR-PaOEC)jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp | ||
| 035 | |a (EBP)061254428 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 084 | |a E37 |2 jelc | ||
| 084 | |a E32 |2 jelc | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Layton, Allan |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 4 | |a The world and "The world business cycle chronology" |c Allan, Layton, Anirvan, Banerji and Lakshman, Achuthan |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2015 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (18 p.) |c 21 x 28cm. | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a Twenty-one individual country business cycle chronologies, maintained and updated by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), are analysed for their degree of synchronisation with a proposed "world business cycle chronology". Several key results emerge. First, perhaps not surprisingly, the world's four 20th Century locomotor economies of the US, UK, Germany and Japan are statistically significantly and reasonably strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle. Second, European countries in the sample are either positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag or with a lag of around three months. Third, the NAFTA countries (US, Canada and Mexico) are, perhaps again not unexpectedly, quite strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag and with each other. Fourth, the single South American country included in the sample, Brazil, is strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag as well as with the NAFTA countries - but behaves very differently from China and India with respect to the world cycle. Fifth, interestingly, the newly industrialized East Asian countries included in the sample appear to lead the world cycle by about three to nine months. Finally, and very interestingly, there appears to be some a priori evidence of a long leading negative synchronisation between the commodity exporting countries in the sample and the world cycle. Key words: world business cycle, synchronisation JEL classification: E32, E37 | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Banerji, Anirvan |e MitwirkendeR |4 ctb | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Achuthan, Lakshman |e MitwirkendeR |4 ctb | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis |g Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 23-40 |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:2015 |g year:2015 |g number:1 |g pages:23-40 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |l FWS01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |q FWS_PDA_SOC |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC-article | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 049 | |a DE-863 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | ZDB-13-SOC-061254428 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1816797354366337024 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Layton, Allan |
| author2 | Banerji, Anirvan Achuthan, Lakshman |
| author2_role | ctb ctb |
| author2_variant | a b ab l a la |
| author_facet | Layton, Allan Banerji, Anirvan Achuthan, Lakshman |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Layton, Allan |
| author_variant | a l al |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-article |
| ctrlnum | (DE-627-1)061254428 (DE-599)KEP061254428 (FR-PaOEC)jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp (EBP)061254428 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp |
| format | Electronic Article |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02902caa a22004092 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">ZDB-13-SOC-061254428</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627-1</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20231204121311.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">210204s2015 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627-1)061254428</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)KEP061254428</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(FR-PaOEC)jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(EBP)061254428</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">E37</subfield><subfield code="2">jelc</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">E32</subfield><subfield code="2">jelc</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Layton, Allan</subfield><subfield code="e">VerfasserIn</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="4"><subfield code="a">The world and "The world business cycle chronology"</subfield><subfield code="c">Allan, Layton, Anirvan, Banerji and Lakshman, Achuthan</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2015</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (18 p.)</subfield><subfield code="c">21 x 28cm.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Twenty-one individual country business cycle chronologies, maintained and updated by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), are analysed for their degree of synchronisation with a proposed "world business cycle chronology". Several key results emerge. First, perhaps not surprisingly, the world's four 20th Century locomotor economies of the US, UK, Germany and Japan are statistically significantly and reasonably strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle. Second, European countries in the sample are either positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag or with a lag of around three months. Third, the NAFTA countries (US, Canada and Mexico) are, perhaps again not unexpectedly, quite strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag and with each other. Fourth, the single South American country included in the sample, Brazil, is strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag as well as with the NAFTA countries - but behaves very differently from China and India with respect to the world cycle. Fifth, interestingly, the newly industrialized East Asian countries included in the sample appear to lead the world cycle by about three to nine months. Finally, and very interestingly, there appears to be some a priori evidence of a long leading negative synchronisation between the commodity exporting countries in the sample and the world cycle. Key words: world business cycle, synchronisation JEL classification: E32, E37</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Banerji, Anirvan</subfield><subfield code="e">MitwirkendeR</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Achuthan, Lakshman</subfield><subfield code="e">MitwirkendeR</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis</subfield><subfield code="g">Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 23-40</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="1" ind2="8"><subfield code="g">volume:2015</subfield><subfield code="g">year:2015</subfield><subfield code="g">number:1</subfield><subfield code="g">pages:23-40</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="l">FWS01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="q">FWS_PDA_SOC</subfield><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC-article</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="951" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | ZDB-13-SOC-061254428 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:56:14Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (18 p.) 21 x 28cm. |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-article |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateSearch | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Layton, Allan VerfasserIn aut The world and "The world business cycle chronology" Allan, Layton, Anirvan, Banerji and Lakshman, Achuthan Paris OECD Publishing 2015 1 Online-Ressource (18 p.) 21 x 28cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Twenty-one individual country business cycle chronologies, maintained and updated by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), are analysed for their degree of synchronisation with a proposed "world business cycle chronology". Several key results emerge. First, perhaps not surprisingly, the world's four 20th Century locomotor economies of the US, UK, Germany and Japan are statistically significantly and reasonably strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle. Second, European countries in the sample are either positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag or with a lag of around three months. Third, the NAFTA countries (US, Canada and Mexico) are, perhaps again not unexpectedly, quite strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag and with each other. Fourth, the single South American country included in the sample, Brazil, is strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag as well as with the NAFTA countries - but behaves very differently from China and India with respect to the world cycle. Fifth, interestingly, the newly industrialized East Asian countries included in the sample appear to lead the world cycle by about three to nine months. Finally, and very interestingly, there appears to be some a priori evidence of a long leading negative synchronisation between the commodity exporting countries in the sample and the world cycle. Key words: world business cycle, synchronisation JEL classification: E32, E37 Economics Banerji, Anirvan MitwirkendeR ctb Achuthan, Lakshman MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 23-40 volume:2015 year:2015 number:1 pages:23-40 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Layton, Allan The world and "The world business cycle chronology" Economics |
| title | The world and "The world business cycle chronology" |
| title_auth | The world and "The world business cycle chronology" |
| title_exact_search | The world and "The world business cycle chronology" |
| title_full | The world and "The world business cycle chronology" Allan, Layton, Anirvan, Banerji and Lakshman, Achuthan |
| title_fullStr | The world and "The world business cycle chronology" Allan, Layton, Anirvan, Banerji and Lakshman, Achuthan |
| title_full_unstemmed | The world and "The world business cycle chronology" Allan, Layton, Anirvan, Banerji and Lakshman, Achuthan |
| title_short | The world and "The world business cycle chronology" |
| title_sort | world and the world business cycle chronology |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl953jxp |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT laytonallan theworldandtheworldbusinesscyclechronology AT banerjianirvan theworldandtheworldbusinesscyclechronology AT achuthanlakshman theworldandtheworldbusinesscyclechronology AT laytonallan worldandtheworldbusinesscyclechronology AT banerjianirvan worldandtheworldbusinesscyclechronology AT achuthanlakshman worldandtheworldbusinesscyclechronology |