Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity:
This paper examines the usefulness of consumer and business surveys in assessing the cyclical position of the economy and for forecasting output movements. To that effect, after a brief review of the nature of sentiment measures, the empirical relationship between confidence indicators and output co...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
1996
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.170 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper examines the usefulness of consumer and business surveys in assessing the cyclical position of the economy and for forecasting output movements. To that effect, after a brief review of the nature of sentiment measures, the empirical relationship between confidence indicators and output components is explored. Graphical examination, correlation analysis and Granger causality tests are used to asses that relationship. The paper finds that sentiment measures obtained from business surveys provide valuable information for the assessment of the economic situation and forecasting. However, the relationship between sentiment indicators and output varies considerably across countries and sentiment measures. It is also found that consumer confidence indicators are much less useful than business confidence indicators for economic analysis due to their much looser relationship with output movements ... |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (54 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/537052766455 |
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| series2 | OECD Economics Department Working Papers |
| spelling | Santero, Teresa VerfasserIn aut Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity Teresa, Santero and Niels, Westerlund Paris OECD Publishing 1996 1 Online-Ressource (54 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.170 This paper examines the usefulness of consumer and business surveys in assessing the cyclical position of the economy and for forecasting output movements. To that effect, after a brief review of the nature of sentiment measures, the empirical relationship between confidence indicators and output components is explored. Graphical examination, correlation analysis and Granger causality tests are used to asses that relationship. The paper finds that sentiment measures obtained from business surveys provide valuable information for the assessment of the economic situation and forecasting. However, the relationship between sentiment indicators and output varies considerably across countries and sentiment measures. It is also found that consumer confidence indicators are much less useful than business confidence indicators for economic analysis due to their much looser relationship with output movements ... Economics Westerlund, Niels MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/537052766455 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Santero, Teresa Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity Economics |
| title | Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity |
| title_auth | Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity |
| title_exact_search | Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity |
| title_full | Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity Teresa, Santero and Niels, Westerlund |
| title_fullStr | Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity Teresa, Santero and Niels, Westerlund |
| title_full_unstemmed | Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity Teresa, Santero and Niels, Westerlund |
| title_short | Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity |
| title_sort | confidence indicators and their relationship to changes in economic activity |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/537052766455 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT santeroteresa confidenceindicatorsandtheirrelationshiptochangesineconomicactivity AT westerlundniels confidenceindicatorsandtheirrelationshiptochangesineconomicactivity |