China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios:
In 2016, the People's Republic of China removed its support prices for maize and started destocking its large public reserves of maize. This paper investigates what would happen if China were to also eliminate its support prices for rice and wheat and reduce its public stocks of these two commo...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2020
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers
no.138 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | In 2016, the People's Republic of China removed its support prices for maize and started destocking its large public reserves of maize. This paper investigates what would happen if China were to also eliminate its support prices for rice and wheat and reduce its public stocks of these two commodities. The analysis examines domestic and international market impacts over the next ten years by comparing a baseline (or business-as-usual scenario) with three scenarios that each assume support prices are eliminated but incorporate different assumptions about China's import policies. To account for the uncertainty about China's actual stock levels, the baseline and three scenarios are conducted under a minimum and maximum stock level assumption. The results show that the impacts will be most pronounced during the first years when temporary public stocks are depleted, with strong drops in domestic prices and reduced production. Over the medium term, domestic prices are projected to recover but will remain below baseline levels. The analysis also shows that even though the actual size of stocks has no significant impact over the medium term, its impact can be substantial during the first years a new policy is implemented, which underscores the importance of transparency when reporting on stock levels and stockholding policies. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (39 p.) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/f813ed01-en |
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| spelling | Deuss, Annelies VerfasserIn aut China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios Annelies, Deuss and Marcel, Adenäuer Paris OECD Publishing 2020 1 Online-Ressource (39 p.) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers no.138 In 2016, the People's Republic of China removed its support prices for maize and started destocking its large public reserves of maize. This paper investigates what would happen if China were to also eliminate its support prices for rice and wheat and reduce its public stocks of these two commodities. The analysis examines domestic and international market impacts over the next ten years by comparing a baseline (or business-as-usual scenario) with three scenarios that each assume support prices are eliminated but incorporate different assumptions about China's import policies. To account for the uncertainty about China's actual stock levels, the baseline and three scenarios are conducted under a minimum and maximum stock level assumption. The results show that the impacts will be most pronounced during the first years when temporary public stocks are depleted, with strong drops in domestic prices and reduced production. Over the medium term, domestic prices are projected to recover but will remain below baseline levels. The analysis also shows that even though the actual size of stocks has no significant impact over the medium term, its impact can be substantial during the first years a new policy is implemented, which underscores the importance of transparency when reporting on stock levels and stockholding policies. Agriculture and Food China, People's Republic Adenäuer, Marcel MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/f813ed01-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Deuss, Annelies China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios Agriculture and Food China, People's Republic |
| title | China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios |
| title_auth | China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios |
| title_exact_search | China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios |
| title_full | China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios Annelies, Deuss and Marcel, Adenäuer |
| title_fullStr | China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios Annelies, Deuss and Marcel, Adenäuer |
| title_full_unstemmed | China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios Annelies, Deuss and Marcel, Adenäuer |
| title_short | China's grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios |
| title_sort | china s grain reserves price support and import policies examining the medium term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios |
| topic | Agriculture and Food China, People's Republic |
| topic_facet | Agriculture and Food China, People's Republic |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/f813ed01-en |
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