Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data:
Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the choice of the dataset chosen to estimate the factors. Four datasets are built and...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2009
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the choice of the dataset chosen to estimate the factors. Four datasets are built and common factors are estimated separately on each of them following two methodologies, Stock and Watson (2002a, 2002b) and Forni et al. (2005). Then, a rolling out of sample forecast comparison exercise is carried out on nine models to compare the forecast performance of the models and the datasets. Compared to univariate benchmarks, our results are supportive of factor-based models up to two quarters. They show that incorporating survey and external trade information improves the forecast of manufacturing production. They also confirm the findings of Marcellino, Stock and Watson (2003) that, using country information, it is possible to improve forecasts for the euro area. Interestingly, the medium-sized highly opened economies provide valuable information to monitor area wide developments, beyond their weight in the aggregate. Conversely, the large countries do not add much to the monitoring of the aggregate, when considered separately. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) 19 x 27cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art8-en |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a22000002 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | ZDB-13-SOC-061246212 | ||
| 003 | DE-627-1 | ||
| 005 | 20231204121253.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210204s2009 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art8-en |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627-1)061246212 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KEP061246212 | ||
| 035 | |a (FR-PaOEC)jbcma-v2008-art8-en | ||
| 035 | |a (EBP)061246212 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Darracq Paries, Matthieu |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data |c Matthieu, Darracq Paries and Laurent, Maurin |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2009 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) |c 19 x 27cm. | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the choice of the dataset chosen to estimate the factors. Four datasets are built and common factors are estimated separately on each of them following two methodologies, Stock and Watson (2002a, 2002b) and Forni et al. (2005). Then, a rolling out of sample forecast comparison exercise is carried out on nine models to compare the forecast performance of the models and the datasets. Compared to univariate benchmarks, our results are supportive of factor-based models up to two quarters. They show that incorporating survey and external trade information improves the forecast of manufacturing production. They also confirm the findings of Marcellino, Stock and Watson (2003) that, using country information, it is possible to improve forecasts for the euro area. Interestingly, the medium-sized highly opened economies provide valuable information to monitor area wide developments, beyond their weight in the aggregate. Conversely, the large countries do not add much to the monitoring of the aggregate, when considered separately. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Maurin, Laurent |e MitwirkendeR |4 ctb | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis |g Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 139-160 |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:2008 |g year:2008 |g number:2 |g pages:139-160 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |l FWS01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |q FWS_PDA_SOC |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art8-en |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC-article | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 049 | |a DE-863 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | ZDB-13-SOC-061246212 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1816797354768990208 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Darracq Paries, Matthieu |
| author2 | Maurin, Laurent |
| author2_role | ctb |
| author2_variant | l m lm |
| author_facet | Darracq Paries, Matthieu Maurin, Laurent |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Darracq Paries, Matthieu |
| author_variant | p m d pm pmd |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-article |
| ctrlnum | (DE-627-1)061246212 (DE-599)KEP061246212 (FR-PaOEC)jbcma-v2008-art8-en (EBP)061246212 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art8-en |
| format | Electronic Article |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02581caa a22003732 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">ZDB-13-SOC-061246212</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627-1</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20231204121253.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">210204s2009 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art8-en</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627-1)061246212</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)KEP061246212</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(FR-PaOEC)jbcma-v2008-art8-en</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(EBP)061246212</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Darracq Paries, Matthieu</subfield><subfield code="e">VerfasserIn</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data</subfield><subfield code="c">Matthieu, Darracq Paries and Laurent, Maurin</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2009</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (22 p.)</subfield><subfield code="c">19 x 27cm.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the choice of the dataset chosen to estimate the factors. Four datasets are built and common factors are estimated separately on each of them following two methodologies, Stock and Watson (2002a, 2002b) and Forni et al. (2005). Then, a rolling out of sample forecast comparison exercise is carried out on nine models to compare the forecast performance of the models and the datasets. Compared to univariate benchmarks, our results are supportive of factor-based models up to two quarters. They show that incorporating survey and external trade information improves the forecast of manufacturing production. They also confirm the findings of Marcellino, Stock and Watson (2003) that, using country information, it is possible to improve forecasts for the euro area. Interestingly, the medium-sized highly opened economies provide valuable information to monitor area wide developments, beyond their weight in the aggregate. Conversely, the large countries do not add much to the monitoring of the aggregate, when considered separately.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Maurin, Laurent</subfield><subfield code="e">MitwirkendeR</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis</subfield><subfield code="g">Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 139-160</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="1" ind2="8"><subfield code="g">volume:2008</subfield><subfield code="g">year:2008</subfield><subfield code="g">number:2</subfield><subfield code="g">pages:139-160</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="l">FWS01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="q">FWS_PDA_SOC</subfield><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art8-en</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC-article</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="951" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | ZDB-13-SOC-061246212 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:56:15Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) 19 x 27cm. |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-article |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Darracq Paries, Matthieu VerfasserIn aut Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data Matthieu, Darracq Paries and Laurent, Maurin Paris OECD Publishing 2009 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) 19 x 27cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the choice of the dataset chosen to estimate the factors. Four datasets are built and common factors are estimated separately on each of them following two methodologies, Stock and Watson (2002a, 2002b) and Forni et al. (2005). Then, a rolling out of sample forecast comparison exercise is carried out on nine models to compare the forecast performance of the models and the datasets. Compared to univariate benchmarks, our results are supportive of factor-based models up to two quarters. They show that incorporating survey and external trade information improves the forecast of manufacturing production. They also confirm the findings of Marcellino, Stock and Watson (2003) that, using country information, it is possible to improve forecasts for the euro area. Interestingly, the medium-sized highly opened economies provide valuable information to monitor area wide developments, beyond their weight in the aggregate. Conversely, the large countries do not add much to the monitoring of the aggregate, when considered separately. Economics Maurin, Laurent MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2008, no. 2, p. 139-160 volume:2008 year:2008 number:2 pages:139-160 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art8-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Darracq Paries, Matthieu Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data Economics |
| title | Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data |
| title_auth | Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data |
| title_exact_search | Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data |
| title_full | Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data Matthieu, Darracq Paries and Laurent, Maurin |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data Matthieu, Darracq Paries and Laurent, Maurin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data Matthieu, Darracq Paries and Laurent, Maurin |
| title_short | Forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country-specific trade and survey data |
| title_sort | forecasting euro area manufacturing production with country specific trade and survey data |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art8-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT darracqpariesmatthieu forecastingeuroareamanufacturingproductionwithcountryspecifictradeandsurveydata AT maurinlaurent forecastingeuroareamanufacturingproductionwithcountryspecifictradeandsurveydata |