An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates: = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation
Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisi...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | , , , , |
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2016
|
| Series: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.1294 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Summary: | Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables - house prices and credit - have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future. |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. |
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| 520 | |a Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables - house prices and credit - have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future. | ||
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| spelling | Turner, David VerfasserIn aut An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation David, Turner ... [et al] Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation Paris OECD Publishing 2016 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1294 Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables - house prices and credit - have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future. Employment Finance and Investment Economics Cavalleri, Maria Chiara MitwirkendeR ctb Guillemette, Yvan MitwirkendeR ctb Kopoin, Alexandre MitwirkendeR ctb Ollivaud, Patrice MitwirkendeR ctb Rusticelli, Elena MitwirkendeR ctb |
| spellingShingle | Turner, David An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation Employment Finance and Investment Economics |
| title | An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation |
| title_alt | Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation |
| title_auth | An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation |
| title_exact_search | An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation |
| title_full | An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation David, Turner ... [et al] |
| title_fullStr | An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation David, Turner ... [et al] |
| title_full_unstemmed | An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation David, Turner ... [et al] |
| title_short | An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates |
| title_sort | an investigation into improving the real time reliability of oecd output gap estimates ameliorer la fiabilite en temps reel des estimations d ecarts de production de l ocde une investigation |
| title_sub | = Améliorer la fiabilité en temps réel des estimations d'écarts de production de l'OCDE : une investigation |
| topic | Employment Finance and Investment Economics |
| topic_facet | Employment Finance and Investment Economics |
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