Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates: Fiscal Policy and other Drivers
This paper documents some features of recent trends in bond yields and discusses the drivers of these trends. This includes a discussion of the relationship between fiscal balances and interest rates -- with a summary of key empirical results from the literature provided in the Appendix. The main po...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2003
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.367 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper documents some features of recent trends in bond yields and discusses the drivers of these trends. This includes a discussion of the relationship between fiscal balances and interest rates -- with a summary of key empirical results from the literature provided in the Appendix. The main points to emerge from this analysis are as follows. First, cyclical and portfolio-allocation factors seem to have been the main driving forces behind the decline in long-term real interest rates over 2000-2003. However, in some European countries, declining (inflation, exchange-rate, and sovereign) risk premia suggest that the equilibrium real interest rate may now be somewhat lower. Second, the weight of recent evidence suggests a causal relationship from fiscal positions to long-term interest rates, at least for the United States. Thus, the actual and projected deterioration in US fiscal positions might have contributed to the recent rise in bond yields, although part of the ... |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (63 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/514820262776 |
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| spelling | Brook, Anne-Marie VerfasserIn aut Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates Fiscal Policy and other Drivers Anne-Marie, Brook = Évolution récente et perspectives des taux d'intérêt à long terme réels : Politique budgétaire et autres moteurs / Anne-Marie, Brook Évolution récente et perspectives des taux d'intérêt à long terme réels Paris OECD Publishing 2003 1 Online-Ressource (63 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.367 This paper documents some features of recent trends in bond yields and discusses the drivers of these trends. This includes a discussion of the relationship between fiscal balances and interest rates -- with a summary of key empirical results from the literature provided in the Appendix. The main points to emerge from this analysis are as follows. First, cyclical and portfolio-allocation factors seem to have been the main driving forces behind the decline in long-term real interest rates over 2000-2003. However, in some European countries, declining (inflation, exchange-rate, and sovereign) risk premia suggest that the equilibrium real interest rate may now be somewhat lower. Second, the weight of recent evidence suggests a causal relationship from fiscal positions to long-term interest rates, at least for the United States. Thus, the actual and projected deterioration in US fiscal positions might have contributed to the recent rise in bond yields, although part of the ... Economics FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/514820262776 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Brook, Anne-Marie Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates Fiscal Policy and other Drivers Economics |
| title | Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates Fiscal Policy and other Drivers |
| title_alt | Évolution récente et perspectives des taux d'intérêt à long terme réels |
| title_auth | Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates Fiscal Policy and other Drivers |
| title_exact_search | Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates Fiscal Policy and other Drivers |
| title_full | Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates Fiscal Policy and other Drivers Anne-Marie, Brook = Évolution récente et perspectives des taux d'intérêt à long terme réels : Politique budgétaire et autres moteurs / Anne-Marie, Brook |
| title_fullStr | Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates Fiscal Policy and other Drivers Anne-Marie, Brook = Évolution récente et perspectives des taux d'intérêt à long terme réels : Politique budgétaire et autres moteurs / Anne-Marie, Brook |
| title_full_unstemmed | Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates Fiscal Policy and other Drivers Anne-Marie, Brook = Évolution récente et perspectives des taux d'intérêt à long terme réels : Politique budgétaire et autres moteurs / Anne-Marie, Brook |
| title_short | Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates |
| title_sort | recent and prospective trends in real long term interest rates fiscal policy and other drivers |
| title_sub | Fiscal Policy and other Drivers |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/514820262776 |
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