Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach
This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sa...
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| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Summary: | This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52 |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) 21 x 28cm. |
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| 520 | |a This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52 | ||
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| spelling | Altug, Sumru VerfasserIn aut Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz Paris OECD Publishing 2013 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) 21 x 28cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52 Economics Türkiye Uluceviz, Erhan MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 1-37 volume:2014 year:2014 number:1 pages:1-37 |
| spellingShingle | Altug, Sumru Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Economics Türkiye |
| title | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_auth | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_exact_search | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_full | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz |
| title_fullStr | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz |
| title_short | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 |
| title_sort | identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for turkey 1988 2010 a pseudo out of sample forecasting approach |
| title_sub | A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| topic | Economics Türkiye |
| topic_facet | Economics Türkiye |
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