Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach
This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sa...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2013
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52 |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (37 p.) 21 x 28cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a22000002 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | ZDB-13-SOC-061241415 | ||
| 003 | DE-627-1 | ||
| 005 | 20231204120914.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210204s2013 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627-1)061241415 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KEP061241415 | ||
| 035 | |a (FR-PaOEC)jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v | ||
| 035 | |a (EBP)061241415 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Altug, Sumru |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 |b A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |c Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2013 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (37 p.) |c 21 x 28cm. | ||
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52 | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Türkiye | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Uluceviz, Erhan |e MitwirkendeR |4 ctb | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis |g Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 1-37 |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:2014 |g year:2014 |g number:1 |g pages:1-37 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |l FWS01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |q FWS_PDA_SOC |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC-article | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 049 | |a DE-863 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | ZDB-13-SOC-061241415 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1816797354982899712 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Altug, Sumru |
| author2 | Uluceviz, Erhan |
| author2_role | ctb |
| author2_variant | e u eu |
| author_facet | Altug, Sumru Uluceviz, Erhan |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Altug, Sumru |
| author_variant | s a sa |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-article |
| ctrlnum | (DE-627-1)061241415 (DE-599)KEP061241415 (FR-PaOEC)jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v (EBP)061241415 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v |
| format | Electronic Article |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02263caa a22003852 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">ZDB-13-SOC-061241415</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627-1</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20231204120914.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">210204s2013 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627-1)061241415</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)KEP061241415</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(FR-PaOEC)jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(EBP)061241415</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Altug, Sumru</subfield><subfield code="e">VerfasserIn</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010</subfield><subfield code="b">A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach</subfield><subfield code="c">Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2013</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (37 p.)</subfield><subfield code="c">21 x 28cm.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Türkiye</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Uluceviz, Erhan</subfield><subfield code="e">MitwirkendeR</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis</subfield><subfield code="g">Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 1-37</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="1" ind2="8"><subfield code="g">volume:2014</subfield><subfield code="g">year:2014</subfield><subfield code="g">number:1</subfield><subfield code="g">pages:1-37</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="l">FWS01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="q">FWS_PDA_SOC</subfield><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC-article</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="951" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | ZDB-13-SOC-061241415 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:56:15Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (37 p.) 21 x 28cm. |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC ZDB-13-SOC-article |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateSearch | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Altug, Sumru VerfasserIn aut Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz Paris OECD Publishing 2013 1 Online-Ressource (37 p.) 21 x 28cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52 Economics Türkiye Uluceviz, Erhan MitwirkendeR ctb Enthalten in OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 1-37 volume:2014 year:2014 number:1 pages:1-37 FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Altug, Sumru Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Economics Türkiye |
| title | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_auth | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_exact_search | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_full | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz |
| title_fullStr | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru, Altug and Erhan, Uluceviz |
| title_short | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 |
| title_sort | identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for turkey 1988 2010 a pseudo out of sample forecasting approach |
| title_sub | A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| topic | Economics Türkiye |
| topic_facet | Economics Türkiye |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT altugsumru identifyingleadingindicatorsofrealactivityandinflationforturkey19882010apseudooutofsampleforecastingapproach AT ulucevizerhan identifyingleadingindicatorsofrealactivityandinflationforturkey19882010apseudooutofsampleforecastingapproach |