Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops:
This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow episode...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2011
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.865 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow episode increases substantially the probability of having a banking or a currency crisis in the two following years. The effect is especially large for the case of balance-of-payment crises. The paper also finds that the effect of large capital inflows is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode. In particular, large capital inflows that are debt-driven significantly increase the probability of banking, currency and balance of payment crises, whereas if inflows are driven by equity portfolio investment or FDI there is a negligible effect. This means that structural reforms that modify the composition of capital flows towards a lower share of debt are likely to reduce the financial vulnerabilities to large capital inflows. At the same time, however, structural reforms may also increase the overall size of capital flows. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (37 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en |
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| 520 | |a This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow episode increases substantially the probability of having a banking or a currency crisis in the two following years. The effect is especially large for the case of balance-of-payment crises. The paper also finds that the effect of large capital inflows is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode. In particular, large capital inflows that are debt-driven significantly increase the probability of banking, currency and balance of payment crises, whereas if inflows are driven by equity portfolio investment or FDI there is a negligible effect. This means that structural reforms that modify the composition of capital flows towards a lower share of debt are likely to reduce the financial vulnerabilities to large capital inflows. At the same time, however, structural reforms may also increase the overall size of capital flows. | ||
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| spelling | Furceri, Davide VerfasserIn aut Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Davide, Furceri, Stéphanie, Guichard and Elena, Rusticelli = Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur / Davide, Furceri, Stéphanie, Guichard et Elena, Rusticelli Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur Paris OECD Publishing 2011 1 Online-Ressource (37 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.865 This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow episode increases substantially the probability of having a banking or a currency crisis in the two following years. The effect is especially large for the case of balance-of-payment crises. The paper also finds that the effect of large capital inflows is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode. In particular, large capital inflows that are debt-driven significantly increase the probability of banking, currency and balance of payment crises, whereas if inflows are driven by equity portfolio investment or FDI there is a negligible effect. This means that structural reforms that modify the composition of capital flows towards a lower share of debt are likely to reduce the financial vulnerabilities to large capital inflows. At the same time, however, structural reforms may also increase the overall size of capital flows. Economics Guichard, Stéphanie MitwirkendeR ctb Rusticelli, Elena MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Furceri, Davide Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Economics |
| title | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_alt | Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur |
| title_auth | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_exact_search | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_full | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Davide, Furceri, Stéphanie, Guichard and Elena, Rusticelli = Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur / Davide, Furceri, Stéphanie, Guichard et Elena, Rusticelli |
| title_fullStr | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Davide, Furceri, Stéphanie, Guichard and Elena, Rusticelli = Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur / Davide, Furceri, Stéphanie, Guichard et Elena, Rusticelli |
| title_full_unstemmed | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Davide, Furceri, Stéphanie, Guichard and Elena, Rusticelli = Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur / Davide, Furceri, Stéphanie, Guichard et Elena, Rusticelli |
| title_short | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_sort | episodes of large capital inflows and the likelihood of banking and currency crises and sudden stops |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en |
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