A general theory of evidence and proof: forming beliefs in truth
This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likeliho...
Gespeichert in:
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cham
Springer
[2024]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Law and philosophy library
volume 148 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | DE-634 DE-2070s DE-19 DE-706 DE-29 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likelihood. But such talk is a misleading misconception. The reason is that traditional probability fails to distinguish epistemic uncertainty from aleatory uncertainty. This conflation leads to mistakes such as invoking probabilitys product rules, which calculate a conjunctions likelihood as being low. From there, the theorists have argued that in a myriad of ways, the law violates the probability calculus unforgivably. Today, other theorists are newly realizing that in large part the law does not deal in probability. They now can defend the way that law has found facts since long before the invention of probability and on to the present. They are also reevaluating such intuitive practices as those that humans use in daily life to combine inferences upon inferences. A hotly contested literature has emerged. In a significant, comprehensive, and original contribution, this book develops a theoretical justification for the intuitive approaches that humans deploy across a broad range of decisionmaking. Instead of probability, the book focuses on degrees of belief that estimate, given the state of the evidence, how far a proposition has been fully proven. Instead of combining findings by the rules of probability, the book uses the rules of multivalent logic. The aim is to illuminate decisionmaking outside statistical analysis, showing that our ancient wisdom is in fact theoretically solid. The target is everyone interested in improving decisionmaking |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9783031665523 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3 |
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| spelling | Clermont, Kevin M. 1945- Verfasser (DE-588)173821529 aut A general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth Kevin M. Clermont Cham Springer [2024] 1 Online-Ressource Illustrationen txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Law and philosophy library volume 148 This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likelihood. But such talk is a misleading misconception. The reason is that traditional probability fails to distinguish epistemic uncertainty from aleatory uncertainty. This conflation leads to mistakes such as invoking probabilitys product rules, which calculate a conjunctions likelihood as being low. From there, the theorists have argued that in a myriad of ways, the law violates the probability calculus unforgivably. Today, other theorists are newly realizing that in large part the law does not deal in probability. They now can defend the way that law has found facts since long before the invention of probability and on to the present. They are also reevaluating such intuitive practices as those that humans use in daily life to combine inferences upon inferences. A hotly contested literature has emerged. In a significant, comprehensive, and original contribution, this book develops a theoretical justification for the intuitive approaches that humans deploy across a broad range of decisionmaking. Instead of probability, the book focuses on degrees of belief that estimate, given the state of the evidence, how far a proposition has been fully proven. Instead of combining findings by the rules of probability, the book uses the rules of multivalent logic. The aim is to illuminate decisionmaking outside statistical analysis, showing that our ancient wisdom is in fact theoretically solid. The target is everyone interested in improving decisionmaking Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Schlussfolgern (DE-588)4251178-1 gnd rswk-swf Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd rswk-swf Evidenz (DE-588)4129356-3 gnd rswk-swf Decision making Uncertainty Truth Prise de décision Incertitude Vérité decision making truth Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Evidenz (DE-588)4129356-3 s Schlussfolgern (DE-588)4251178-1 s Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe, hardback 978-3-031-66551-6 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe, paperback 978-3-031-66554-7 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Clermont, Kevin M. 1945- A general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Schlussfolgern (DE-588)4251178-1 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd Evidenz (DE-588)4129356-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4251178-1 (DE-588)4137007-7 (DE-588)4129356-3 |
| title | A general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth |
| title_auth | A general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth |
| title_exact_search | A general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth |
| title_full | A general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth Kevin M. Clermont |
| title_fullStr | A general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth Kevin M. Clermont |
| title_full_unstemmed | A general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth Kevin M. Clermont |
| title_short | A general theory of evidence and proof |
| title_sort | a general theory of evidence and proof forming beliefs in truth |
| title_sub | forming beliefs in truth |
| topic | Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Schlussfolgern (DE-588)4251178-1 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd Evidenz (DE-588)4129356-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entscheidungsfindung Schlussfolgern Wahrscheinlichkeit Evidenz |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT clermontkevinm ageneraltheoryofevidenceandproofformingbeliefsintruth |