Global Economic Prospects, January 2024:
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| Corporate Author: | |
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| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D. C.
World Bank Publications
2024
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| Edition: | 1st ed |
| Series: | Global Economic Prospects Series
|
| Online Access: | DE-2070s |
| Item Description: | Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (229 Seiten) |
| ISBN: | 9781464820182 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |
| 250 | |a 1st ed | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D. C. |b World Bank Publications |c 2024 | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2024 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (229 Seiten) | ||
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| 490 | 0 | |a Global Economic Prospects Series | |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Summary of Contents -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Global Outlook -- Summary -- Global context -- Global trade -- Commodity markets -- Global inflation -- Global financial developments -- Major economies: Recent developments and outlook -- Advanced economies -- China -- Emerging market and developing economies -- Recent developments -- EMDE outlook -- LICs outlook -- Per capita income growth -- Global outlook and risks -- Summary of global outlook -- Risks to the outlook -- Policy challenges -- Key global challenges -- Challenges in emerging market and developing economies -- References -- Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks -- East Asia and Pacific -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Europe and Central Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Latin America and the Caribbean -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Middle East and North Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- South Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- References -- Chapter 3 The Magic of Investment Accelerations -- Introduction -- Contributions -- Main findings -- Database and identification methodology -- Database -- Identification methodology -- Features of investment accelerations -- Number of accelerations -- Distribution of accelerations over time and across countries -- Amplitude and duration of accelerations -- Correlates of investment accelerations -- Output growth and its underlying channels -- Other macroeconomic and financial correlates -- Development outcomes -- Drivers of investment accelerations -- Initial conditions -- Macroeconomic policies and structural reforms -- Institutional quality -- Robustness | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Policies to start investment accelerations -- Fiscal and monetary policies -- Structural policies -- Institutional quality -- Interventions at the micro level -- Designing a policy package -- Conclusion -- Annex 3.1 Identification of investment accelerations -- Annex 3.2 Methodological annex -- Annex 3.3 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- Annex 3.4 Robustness exercises -- References -- Chapter 4 Fiscal Policy in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge -- Introduction -- Fiscal policy procyclicality -- Conceptual definitions -- Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Fiscal policy volatility -- Conceptual definitions -- Basic features of fiscal policy volatility -- Determinants of fiscal volatility -- Implications of fiscal policy volatility for growth -- Links between procyclicality and volatility -- Fiscal institutions and frameworks -- Fiscal rules -- Sovereign wealth funds -- Medium-term expenditure frameworks -- Institutional quality and governance -- Conclusions -- Annex 4.1 Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Annex 4.2 Linkages between fiscal policy volatility and economic growth -- Annex 4.3 Additional tables -- References -- Statistical Appendix -- Data and Forecast Conventions -- Selected Topics -- Boxes -- 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks -- 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries -- 3.1 Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies -- 4.1 How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth? -- 4.2 Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies -- Figures -- 1.1 Global economic prospects -- 1.2 Global economic prospects (continued) -- 1.3 Global trade -- 1.4 Commodity markets -- 1.5 Global inflation -- 1.6 Global financial developments -- 1.7 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook | |
| 505 | 8 | |a B1.1.1 Regional outlooks -- B1.1.2 Regional risks -- 1.8 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies -- 1.9 Outlook in emerging market and developing economies -- B1.2.1 LICs: Recent developments -- B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and risks -- 1.10 Per capita income growth -- 1.11 Global outlook -- 1.12 Risks to the outlook -- 1.13 Risks to the outlook (continued) -- 1.14 Growth outcomes under alternative scenarios -- 1.15 Global policy challenges -- 1.16 EMDE monetary policy challenges -- 1.17 EMDE fiscal policy challenges -- 1.18 EMDE structural policy challenges -- 2.1.1 China: Recent developments -- 2.1.2 EAP excluding China: Recent developments -- 2.1.3 EAP: Outlook -- 2.1.4 EAP: Risks -- 2.2.1 ECA: Recent developments -- 2.2.2 ECA: Outlook -- 2.2.3 ECA: Risks -- 2.3.1 LAC: Recent developments -- 2.3.2 LAC: Outlook -- 2.3.3 LAC: Risks -- 2.4.1 MNA: Recent developments -- 2.4.2 MNA: Outlook -- 2.4.3 MNA: Risks -- 2.5.1 SAR: Recent developments -- 2.5.2 SAR: Outlook -- 2.5.3 SAR: Risks -- 2.6.1 SSA: Recent developments -- 2.6.2 SSA: Outlook -- 2.6.3 SSA: Risks -- 3.1 Evolution of investment growth -- 3.2 Frequency of investment accelerations -- 3.3 Investment growth during accelerations -- 3.4 Public versus private investment during investment accelerations -- 3.5 Growth of output during investment accelerations -- 3.6 Contributions to GDP growth during investment accelerations -- 3.7 Total factor productivity growth, employment growth, and sectoral shifts around investment accelerations -- 3.8 Macroeconomic indicators around investment accelerations -- 3.9 Development outcomes during investment accelerations -- 3.10 Initial conditions and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.11 Policy improvements and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.12 Enabling factors for investment accelerations | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 3.13 Policy packages and potential growth -- B3.1.1 Investment accelerations in the Republic of Korea and Malaysia -- B3.1.2 Investment accelerations in Poland and Türkiye -- B3.1.3 Investment accelerations in Colombia and Uruguay -- B3.1.4 Investment accelerations in Chile and Morocco -- B3.1.5 Investment accelerations in India and Uganda -- 4.1 Commodities: Price volatility and importance for exports and revenues -- 4.2 Procyclicality of government expenditures -- 4.3 Fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic factors in commodity exporters -- 4.4 Fiscal procyclicality, fiscal rules, and institutional factors -- B4.1.1 The amplification effect of procyclical fiscal policy on output -- 4.5 Fiscal policy volatility -- 4.6 Exchange rate regimes and capital account openness -- 4.7 Fiscal policy volatility and procyclicality -- 4.8 Fiscal volatility, growth, and fiscal frameworks -- B4.2.1 Fiscal rules, fiscal expenditures, and SWFs in commodity exporters -- B4.2.2 Fiscal expenditures and SWFs in Chile, Botswana, and Timor-Leste -- B4.2.3 Institutional quality and fiscal procyclicality -- Tables -- 1.1 Real GDP -- B1.2.1 Low-income country forecasts -- 1.2 Emerging market and developing economies -- 2.1.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary -- 2.1.2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts -- 2.2.1 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary -- 2.2.2 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts -- 2.3.1 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary -- 2.3.2 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts -- 2.4.1 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary -- 2.4.2 Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts -- 2.5.1 South Asia forecast summary -- 2.5.2 South Asia country forecasts -- 2.6.1 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary -- 2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts | |
| 505 | 8 | |a B3.1.1 Investment and output growth during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.2 Economic indicators during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.3 Policy changes and reforms during investment accelerations -- A3.1.1 Investment accelerations: Distribution over country groups -- A3.1.2 List of investment accelerations in EMDEs -- A3.2.1 Institutional quality and initial conditions as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.2.2 Institutional quality and policies as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.3.1 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- A3.4.1 Investment accelerations using different duration parameters -- A3.4.2 Investment accelerations using different duration and growth parameters -- A3.4.3 Baseline regressions with additional controls -- A3.4.4 Baseline regressions based on investment growth (not in per capita terms) -- A4.1.1 Drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.2 Institutional drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.3 Output growth and commodity prices -- A4.1.4 Government spending and commodity prices -- A4.2.1 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility: Cross-sectional regressions -- A4.2.2 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility -- by type of commodity -- A4.2.3 Effects of fiscal policy volatility on GDP per capita growth -- A4.3.1 List of economies for analysis of fiscal procyclicality and volatility -- A4.3.2 Variables for analysis of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.3.3 Variables for analysis of fiscal policy volatility | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Druck-Ausgabe |a World Bank Group, World Bank |t Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |d Washington, D. C. : World Bank Publications,c2024 |z 9781464820175 |
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| contents | Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Summary of Contents -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Global Outlook -- Summary -- Global context -- Global trade -- Commodity markets -- Global inflation -- Global financial developments -- Major economies: Recent developments and outlook -- Advanced economies -- China -- Emerging market and developing economies -- Recent developments -- EMDE outlook -- LICs outlook -- Per capita income growth -- Global outlook and risks -- Summary of global outlook -- Risks to the outlook -- Policy challenges -- Key global challenges -- Challenges in emerging market and developing economies -- References -- Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks -- East Asia and Pacific -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Europe and Central Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Latin America and the Caribbean -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Middle East and North Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- South Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- References -- Chapter 3 The Magic of Investment Accelerations -- Introduction -- Contributions -- Main findings -- Database and identification methodology -- Database -- Identification methodology -- Features of investment accelerations -- Number of accelerations -- Distribution of accelerations over time and across countries -- Amplitude and duration of accelerations -- Correlates of investment accelerations -- Output growth and its underlying channels -- Other macroeconomic and financial correlates -- Development outcomes -- Drivers of investment accelerations -- Initial conditions -- Macroeconomic policies and structural reforms -- Institutional quality -- Robustness Policies to start investment accelerations -- Fiscal and monetary policies -- Structural policies -- Institutional quality -- Interventions at the micro level -- Designing a policy package -- Conclusion -- Annex 3.1 Identification of investment accelerations -- Annex 3.2 Methodological annex -- Annex 3.3 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- Annex 3.4 Robustness exercises -- References -- Chapter 4 Fiscal Policy in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge -- Introduction -- Fiscal policy procyclicality -- Conceptual definitions -- Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Fiscal policy volatility -- Conceptual definitions -- Basic features of fiscal policy volatility -- Determinants of fiscal volatility -- Implications of fiscal policy volatility for growth -- Links between procyclicality and volatility -- Fiscal institutions and frameworks -- Fiscal rules -- Sovereign wealth funds -- Medium-term expenditure frameworks -- Institutional quality and governance -- Conclusions -- Annex 4.1 Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Annex 4.2 Linkages between fiscal policy volatility and economic growth -- Annex 4.3 Additional tables -- References -- Statistical Appendix -- Data and Forecast Conventions -- Selected Topics -- Boxes -- 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks -- 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries -- 3.1 Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies -- 4.1 How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth? -- 4.2 Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies -- Figures -- 1.1 Global economic prospects -- 1.2 Global economic prospects (continued) -- 1.3 Global trade -- 1.4 Commodity markets -- 1.5 Global inflation -- 1.6 Global financial developments -- 1.7 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook B1.1.1 Regional outlooks -- B1.1.2 Regional risks -- 1.8 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies -- 1.9 Outlook in emerging market and developing economies -- B1.2.1 LICs: Recent developments -- B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and risks -- 1.10 Per capita income growth -- 1.11 Global outlook -- 1.12 Risks to the outlook -- 1.13 Risks to the outlook (continued) -- 1.14 Growth outcomes under alternative scenarios -- 1.15 Global policy challenges -- 1.16 EMDE monetary policy challenges -- 1.17 EMDE fiscal policy challenges -- 1.18 EMDE structural policy challenges -- 2.1.1 China: Recent developments -- 2.1.2 EAP excluding China: Recent developments -- 2.1.3 EAP: Outlook -- 2.1.4 EAP: Risks -- 2.2.1 ECA: Recent developments -- 2.2.2 ECA: Outlook -- 2.2.3 ECA: Risks -- 2.3.1 LAC: Recent developments -- 2.3.2 LAC: Outlook -- 2.3.3 LAC: Risks -- 2.4.1 MNA: Recent developments -- 2.4.2 MNA: Outlook -- 2.4.3 MNA: Risks -- 2.5.1 SAR: Recent developments -- 2.5.2 SAR: Outlook -- 2.5.3 SAR: Risks -- 2.6.1 SSA: Recent developments -- 2.6.2 SSA: Outlook -- 2.6.3 SSA: Risks -- 3.1 Evolution of investment growth -- 3.2 Frequency of investment accelerations -- 3.3 Investment growth during accelerations -- 3.4 Public versus private investment during investment accelerations -- 3.5 Growth of output during investment accelerations -- 3.6 Contributions to GDP growth during investment accelerations -- 3.7 Total factor productivity growth, employment growth, and sectoral shifts around investment accelerations -- 3.8 Macroeconomic indicators around investment accelerations -- 3.9 Development outcomes during investment accelerations -- 3.10 Initial conditions and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.11 Policy improvements and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.12 Enabling factors for investment accelerations 3.13 Policy packages and potential growth -- B3.1.1 Investment accelerations in the Republic of Korea and Malaysia -- B3.1.2 Investment accelerations in Poland and Türkiye -- B3.1.3 Investment accelerations in Colombia and Uruguay -- B3.1.4 Investment accelerations in Chile and Morocco -- B3.1.5 Investment accelerations in India and Uganda -- 4.1 Commodities: Price volatility and importance for exports and revenues -- 4.2 Procyclicality of government expenditures -- 4.3 Fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic factors in commodity exporters -- 4.4 Fiscal procyclicality, fiscal rules, and institutional factors -- B4.1.1 The amplification effect of procyclical fiscal policy on output -- 4.5 Fiscal policy volatility -- 4.6 Exchange rate regimes and capital account openness -- 4.7 Fiscal policy volatility and procyclicality -- 4.8 Fiscal volatility, growth, and fiscal frameworks -- B4.2.1 Fiscal rules, fiscal expenditures, and SWFs in commodity exporters -- B4.2.2 Fiscal expenditures and SWFs in Chile, Botswana, and Timor-Leste -- B4.2.3 Institutional quality and fiscal procyclicality -- Tables -- 1.1 Real GDP -- B1.2.1 Low-income country forecasts -- 1.2 Emerging market and developing economies -- 2.1.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary -- 2.1.2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts -- 2.2.1 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary -- 2.2.2 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts -- 2.3.1 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary -- 2.3.2 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts -- 2.4.1 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary -- 2.4.2 Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts -- 2.5.1 South Asia forecast summary -- 2.5.2 South Asia country forecasts -- 2.6.1 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary -- 2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts B3.1.1 Investment and output growth during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.2 Economic indicators during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.3 Policy changes and reforms during investment accelerations -- A3.1.1 Investment accelerations: Distribution over country groups -- A3.1.2 List of investment accelerations in EMDEs -- A3.2.1 Institutional quality and initial conditions as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.2.2 Institutional quality and policies as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.3.1 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- A3.4.1 Investment accelerations using different duration parameters -- A3.4.2 Investment accelerations using different duration and growth parameters -- A3.4.3 Baseline regressions with additional controls -- A3.4.4 Baseline regressions based on investment growth (not in per capita terms) -- A4.1.1 Drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.2 Institutional drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.3 Output growth and commodity prices -- A4.1.4 Government spending and commodity prices -- A4.2.1 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility: Cross-sectional regressions -- A4.2.2 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility -- by type of commodity -- A4.2.3 Effects of fiscal policy volatility on GDP per capita growth -- A4.3.1 List of economies for analysis of fiscal procyclicality and volatility -- A4.3.2 Variables for analysis of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.3.3 Variables for analysis of fiscal policy volatility |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-30-PQE)EBC31169356 (ZDB-30-PAD)EBC31169356 (ZDB-89-EBL)EBL31169356 (OCoLC)1423134233 (DE-599)BVBBV049873706 |
| edition | 1st ed |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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C.</subfield><subfield code="b">World Bank Publications</subfield><subfield code="c">2024</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="c">©2024</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (229 Seiten)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Global Economic Prospects Series</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Summary of Contents -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Global Outlook -- Summary -- Global context -- Global trade -- Commodity markets -- Global inflation -- Global financial developments -- Major economies: Recent developments and outlook -- Advanced economies -- China -- Emerging market and developing economies -- Recent developments -- EMDE outlook -- LICs outlook -- Per capita income growth -- Global outlook and risks -- Summary of global outlook -- Risks to the outlook -- Policy challenges -- Key global challenges -- Challenges in emerging market and developing economies -- References -- Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks -- East Asia and Pacific -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Europe and Central Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Latin America and the Caribbean -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Middle East and North Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- South Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- References -- Chapter 3 The Magic of Investment Accelerations -- Introduction -- Contributions -- Main findings -- Database and identification methodology -- Database -- Identification methodology -- Features of investment accelerations -- Number of accelerations -- Distribution of accelerations over time and across countries -- Amplitude and duration of accelerations -- Correlates of investment accelerations -- Output growth and its underlying channels -- Other macroeconomic and financial correlates -- Development outcomes -- Drivers of investment accelerations -- Initial conditions -- Macroeconomic policies and structural reforms -- Institutional quality -- Robustness</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Policies to start investment accelerations -- Fiscal and monetary policies -- Structural policies -- Institutional quality -- Interventions at the micro level -- Designing a policy package -- Conclusion -- Annex 3.1 Identification of investment accelerations -- Annex 3.2 Methodological annex -- Annex 3.3 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- Annex 3.4 Robustness exercises -- References -- Chapter 4 Fiscal Policy in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge -- Introduction -- Fiscal policy procyclicality -- Conceptual definitions -- Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Fiscal policy volatility -- Conceptual definitions -- Basic features of fiscal policy volatility -- Determinants of fiscal volatility -- Implications of fiscal policy volatility for growth -- Links between procyclicality and volatility -- Fiscal institutions and frameworks -- Fiscal rules -- Sovereign wealth funds -- Medium-term expenditure frameworks -- Institutional quality and governance -- Conclusions -- Annex 4.1 Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Annex 4.2 Linkages between fiscal policy volatility and economic growth -- Annex 4.3 Additional tables -- References -- Statistical Appendix -- Data and Forecast Conventions -- Selected Topics -- Boxes -- 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks -- 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries -- 3.1 Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies -- 4.1 How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth? -- 4.2 Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies -- Figures -- 1.1 Global economic prospects -- 1.2 Global economic prospects (continued) -- 1.3 Global trade -- 1.4 Commodity markets -- 1.5 Global inflation -- 1.6 Global financial developments -- 1.7 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">B1.1.1 Regional outlooks -- B1.1.2 Regional risks -- 1.8 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies -- 1.9 Outlook in emerging market and developing economies -- B1.2.1 LICs: Recent developments -- B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and risks -- 1.10 Per capita income growth -- 1.11 Global outlook -- 1.12 Risks to the outlook -- 1.13 Risks to the outlook (continued) -- 1.14 Growth outcomes under alternative scenarios -- 1.15 Global policy challenges -- 1.16 EMDE monetary policy challenges -- 1.17 EMDE fiscal policy challenges -- 1.18 EMDE structural policy challenges -- 2.1.1 China: Recent developments -- 2.1.2 EAP excluding China: Recent developments -- 2.1.3 EAP: Outlook -- 2.1.4 EAP: Risks -- 2.2.1 ECA: Recent developments -- 2.2.2 ECA: Outlook -- 2.2.3 ECA: Risks -- 2.3.1 LAC: Recent developments -- 2.3.2 LAC: Outlook -- 2.3.3 LAC: Risks -- 2.4.1 MNA: Recent developments -- 2.4.2 MNA: Outlook -- 2.4.3 MNA: Risks -- 2.5.1 SAR: Recent developments -- 2.5.2 SAR: Outlook -- 2.5.3 SAR: Risks -- 2.6.1 SSA: Recent developments -- 2.6.2 SSA: Outlook -- 2.6.3 SSA: Risks -- 3.1 Evolution of investment growth -- 3.2 Frequency of investment accelerations -- 3.3 Investment growth during accelerations -- 3.4 Public versus private investment during investment accelerations -- 3.5 Growth of output during investment accelerations -- 3.6 Contributions to GDP growth during investment accelerations -- 3.7 Total factor productivity growth, employment growth, and sectoral shifts around investment accelerations -- 3.8 Macroeconomic indicators around investment accelerations -- 3.9 Development outcomes during investment accelerations -- 3.10 Initial conditions and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.11 Policy improvements and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.12 Enabling factors for investment accelerations</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">3.13 Policy packages and potential growth -- B3.1.1 Investment accelerations in the Republic of Korea and Malaysia -- B3.1.2 Investment accelerations in Poland and Türkiye -- B3.1.3 Investment accelerations in Colombia and Uruguay -- B3.1.4 Investment accelerations in Chile and Morocco -- B3.1.5 Investment accelerations in India and Uganda -- 4.1 Commodities: Price volatility and importance for exports and revenues -- 4.2 Procyclicality of government expenditures -- 4.3 Fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic factors in commodity exporters -- 4.4 Fiscal procyclicality, fiscal rules, and institutional factors -- B4.1.1 The amplification effect of procyclical fiscal policy on output -- 4.5 Fiscal policy volatility -- 4.6 Exchange rate regimes and capital account openness -- 4.7 Fiscal policy volatility and procyclicality -- 4.8 Fiscal volatility, growth, and fiscal frameworks -- B4.2.1 Fiscal rules, fiscal expenditures, and SWFs in commodity exporters -- B4.2.2 Fiscal expenditures and SWFs in Chile, Botswana, and Timor-Leste -- B4.2.3 Institutional quality and fiscal procyclicality -- Tables -- 1.1 Real GDP -- B1.2.1 Low-income country forecasts -- 1.2 Emerging market and developing economies -- 2.1.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary -- 2.1.2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts -- 2.2.1 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary -- 2.2.2 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts -- 2.3.1 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary -- 2.3.2 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts -- 2.4.1 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary -- 2.4.2 Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts -- 2.5.1 South Asia forecast summary -- 2.5.2 South Asia country forecasts -- 2.6.1 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary -- 2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">B3.1.1 Investment and output growth during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.2 Economic indicators during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.3 Policy changes and reforms during investment accelerations -- A3.1.1 Investment accelerations: Distribution over country groups -- A3.1.2 List of investment accelerations in EMDEs -- A3.2.1 Institutional quality and initial conditions as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.2.2 Institutional quality and policies as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.3.1 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- A3.4.1 Investment accelerations using different duration parameters -- A3.4.2 Investment accelerations using different duration and growth parameters -- A3.4.3 Baseline regressions with additional controls -- A3.4.4 Baseline regressions based on investment growth (not in per capita terms) -- A4.1.1 Drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.2 Institutional drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.3 Output growth and commodity prices -- A4.1.4 Government spending and commodity prices -- A4.2.1 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility: Cross-sectional regressions -- A4.2.2 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility -- by type of commodity -- A4.2.3 Effects of fiscal policy volatility on GDP per capita growth -- A4.3.1 List of economies for analysis of fiscal procyclicality and volatility -- A4.3.2 Variables for analysis of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.3.3 Variables for analysis of fiscal policy volatility</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Erscheint auch als</subfield><subfield code="n">Druck-Ausgabe</subfield><subfield code="a">World Bank Group, World Bank</subfield><subfield code="t">Global Economic Prospects, 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| id | DE-604.BV049873706 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-09-19T05:21:48Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781464820182 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-035213164 |
| oclc_num | 1423134233 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-2070s |
| owner_facet | DE-2070s |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (229 Seiten) |
| psigel | ZDB-30-PQE ZDB-30-PQE HWR_PDA_PQE |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateSearch | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | World Bank Publications |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Global Economic Prospects Series |
| spelling | World Bank Group, World Bank Verfasser aut Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 1st ed Washington, D. C. World Bank Publications 2024 ©2024 1 Online-Ressource (229 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Global Economic Prospects Series Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Summary of Contents -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Global Outlook -- Summary -- Global context -- Global trade -- Commodity markets -- Global inflation -- Global financial developments -- Major economies: Recent developments and outlook -- Advanced economies -- China -- Emerging market and developing economies -- Recent developments -- EMDE outlook -- LICs outlook -- Per capita income growth -- Global outlook and risks -- Summary of global outlook -- Risks to the outlook -- Policy challenges -- Key global challenges -- Challenges in emerging market and developing economies -- References -- Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks -- East Asia and Pacific -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Europe and Central Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Latin America and the Caribbean -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Middle East and North Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- South Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- References -- Chapter 3 The Magic of Investment Accelerations -- Introduction -- Contributions -- Main findings -- Database and identification methodology -- Database -- Identification methodology -- Features of investment accelerations -- Number of accelerations -- Distribution of accelerations over time and across countries -- Amplitude and duration of accelerations -- Correlates of investment accelerations -- Output growth and its underlying channels -- Other macroeconomic and financial correlates -- Development outcomes -- Drivers of investment accelerations -- Initial conditions -- Macroeconomic policies and structural reforms -- Institutional quality -- Robustness Policies to start investment accelerations -- Fiscal and monetary policies -- Structural policies -- Institutional quality -- Interventions at the micro level -- Designing a policy package -- Conclusion -- Annex 3.1 Identification of investment accelerations -- Annex 3.2 Methodological annex -- Annex 3.3 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- Annex 3.4 Robustness exercises -- References -- Chapter 4 Fiscal Policy in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge -- Introduction -- Fiscal policy procyclicality -- Conceptual definitions -- Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Fiscal policy volatility -- Conceptual definitions -- Basic features of fiscal policy volatility -- Determinants of fiscal volatility -- Implications of fiscal policy volatility for growth -- Links between procyclicality and volatility -- Fiscal institutions and frameworks -- Fiscal rules -- Sovereign wealth funds -- Medium-term expenditure frameworks -- Institutional quality and governance -- Conclusions -- Annex 4.1 Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Annex 4.2 Linkages between fiscal policy volatility and economic growth -- Annex 4.3 Additional tables -- References -- Statistical Appendix -- Data and Forecast Conventions -- Selected Topics -- Boxes -- 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks -- 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries -- 3.1 Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies -- 4.1 How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth? -- 4.2 Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies -- Figures -- 1.1 Global economic prospects -- 1.2 Global economic prospects (continued) -- 1.3 Global trade -- 1.4 Commodity markets -- 1.5 Global inflation -- 1.6 Global financial developments -- 1.7 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook B1.1.1 Regional outlooks -- B1.1.2 Regional risks -- 1.8 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies -- 1.9 Outlook in emerging market and developing economies -- B1.2.1 LICs: Recent developments -- B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and risks -- 1.10 Per capita income growth -- 1.11 Global outlook -- 1.12 Risks to the outlook -- 1.13 Risks to the outlook (continued) -- 1.14 Growth outcomes under alternative scenarios -- 1.15 Global policy challenges -- 1.16 EMDE monetary policy challenges -- 1.17 EMDE fiscal policy challenges -- 1.18 EMDE structural policy challenges -- 2.1.1 China: Recent developments -- 2.1.2 EAP excluding China: Recent developments -- 2.1.3 EAP: Outlook -- 2.1.4 EAP: Risks -- 2.2.1 ECA: Recent developments -- 2.2.2 ECA: Outlook -- 2.2.3 ECA: Risks -- 2.3.1 LAC: Recent developments -- 2.3.2 LAC: Outlook -- 2.3.3 LAC: Risks -- 2.4.1 MNA: Recent developments -- 2.4.2 MNA: Outlook -- 2.4.3 MNA: Risks -- 2.5.1 SAR: Recent developments -- 2.5.2 SAR: Outlook -- 2.5.3 SAR: Risks -- 2.6.1 SSA: Recent developments -- 2.6.2 SSA: Outlook -- 2.6.3 SSA: Risks -- 3.1 Evolution of investment growth -- 3.2 Frequency of investment accelerations -- 3.3 Investment growth during accelerations -- 3.4 Public versus private investment during investment accelerations -- 3.5 Growth of output during investment accelerations -- 3.6 Contributions to GDP growth during investment accelerations -- 3.7 Total factor productivity growth, employment growth, and sectoral shifts around investment accelerations -- 3.8 Macroeconomic indicators around investment accelerations -- 3.9 Development outcomes during investment accelerations -- 3.10 Initial conditions and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.11 Policy improvements and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.12 Enabling factors for investment accelerations 3.13 Policy packages and potential growth -- B3.1.1 Investment accelerations in the Republic of Korea and Malaysia -- B3.1.2 Investment accelerations in Poland and Türkiye -- B3.1.3 Investment accelerations in Colombia and Uruguay -- B3.1.4 Investment accelerations in Chile and Morocco -- B3.1.5 Investment accelerations in India and Uganda -- 4.1 Commodities: Price volatility and importance for exports and revenues -- 4.2 Procyclicality of government expenditures -- 4.3 Fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic factors in commodity exporters -- 4.4 Fiscal procyclicality, fiscal rules, and institutional factors -- B4.1.1 The amplification effect of procyclical fiscal policy on output -- 4.5 Fiscal policy volatility -- 4.6 Exchange rate regimes and capital account openness -- 4.7 Fiscal policy volatility and procyclicality -- 4.8 Fiscal volatility, growth, and fiscal frameworks -- B4.2.1 Fiscal rules, fiscal expenditures, and SWFs in commodity exporters -- B4.2.2 Fiscal expenditures and SWFs in Chile, Botswana, and Timor-Leste -- B4.2.3 Institutional quality and fiscal procyclicality -- Tables -- 1.1 Real GDP -- B1.2.1 Low-income country forecasts -- 1.2 Emerging market and developing economies -- 2.1.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary -- 2.1.2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts -- 2.2.1 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary -- 2.2.2 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts -- 2.3.1 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary -- 2.3.2 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts -- 2.4.1 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary -- 2.4.2 Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts -- 2.5.1 South Asia forecast summary -- 2.5.2 South Asia country forecasts -- 2.6.1 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary -- 2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts B3.1.1 Investment and output growth during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.2 Economic indicators during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.3 Policy changes and reforms during investment accelerations -- A3.1.1 Investment accelerations: Distribution over country groups -- A3.1.2 List of investment accelerations in EMDEs -- A3.2.1 Institutional quality and initial conditions as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.2.2 Institutional quality and policies as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.3.1 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- A3.4.1 Investment accelerations using different duration parameters -- A3.4.2 Investment accelerations using different duration and growth parameters -- A3.4.3 Baseline regressions with additional controls -- A3.4.4 Baseline regressions based on investment growth (not in per capita terms) -- A4.1.1 Drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.2 Institutional drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.3 Output growth and commodity prices -- A4.1.4 Government spending and commodity prices -- A4.2.1 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility: Cross-sectional regressions -- A4.2.2 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility -- by type of commodity -- A4.2.3 Effects of fiscal policy volatility on GDP per capita growth -- A4.3.1 List of economies for analysis of fiscal procyclicality and volatility -- A4.3.2 Variables for analysis of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.3.3 Variables for analysis of fiscal policy volatility Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe World Bank Group, World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 Washington, D. C. : World Bank Publications,c2024 9781464820175 |
| spellingShingle | Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Summary of Contents -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Global Outlook -- Summary -- Global context -- Global trade -- Commodity markets -- Global inflation -- Global financial developments -- Major economies: Recent developments and outlook -- Advanced economies -- China -- Emerging market and developing economies -- Recent developments -- EMDE outlook -- LICs outlook -- Per capita income growth -- Global outlook and risks -- Summary of global outlook -- Risks to the outlook -- Policy challenges -- Key global challenges -- Challenges in emerging market and developing economies -- References -- Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks -- East Asia and Pacific -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Europe and Central Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Latin America and the Caribbean -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Middle East and North Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- South Asia -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Recent developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- References -- Chapter 3 The Magic of Investment Accelerations -- Introduction -- Contributions -- Main findings -- Database and identification methodology -- Database -- Identification methodology -- Features of investment accelerations -- Number of accelerations -- Distribution of accelerations over time and across countries -- Amplitude and duration of accelerations -- Correlates of investment accelerations -- Output growth and its underlying channels -- Other macroeconomic and financial correlates -- Development outcomes -- Drivers of investment accelerations -- Initial conditions -- Macroeconomic policies and structural reforms -- Institutional quality -- Robustness Policies to start investment accelerations -- Fiscal and monetary policies -- Structural policies -- Institutional quality -- Interventions at the micro level -- Designing a policy package -- Conclusion -- Annex 3.1 Identification of investment accelerations -- Annex 3.2 Methodological annex -- Annex 3.3 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- Annex 3.4 Robustness exercises -- References -- Chapter 4 Fiscal Policy in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge -- Introduction -- Fiscal policy procyclicality -- Conceptual definitions -- Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Fiscal policy volatility -- Conceptual definitions -- Basic features of fiscal policy volatility -- Determinants of fiscal volatility -- Implications of fiscal policy volatility for growth -- Links between procyclicality and volatility -- Fiscal institutions and frameworks -- Fiscal rules -- Sovereign wealth funds -- Medium-term expenditure frameworks -- Institutional quality and governance -- Conclusions -- Annex 4.1 Determinants of fiscal procyclicality -- Annex 4.2 Linkages between fiscal policy volatility and economic growth -- Annex 4.3 Additional tables -- References -- Statistical Appendix -- Data and Forecast Conventions -- Selected Topics -- Boxes -- 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks -- 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries -- 3.1 Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies -- 4.1 How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth? -- 4.2 Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies -- Figures -- 1.1 Global economic prospects -- 1.2 Global economic prospects (continued) -- 1.3 Global trade -- 1.4 Commodity markets -- 1.5 Global inflation -- 1.6 Global financial developments -- 1.7 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook B1.1.1 Regional outlooks -- B1.1.2 Regional risks -- 1.8 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies -- 1.9 Outlook in emerging market and developing economies -- B1.2.1 LICs: Recent developments -- B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and risks -- 1.10 Per capita income growth -- 1.11 Global outlook -- 1.12 Risks to the outlook -- 1.13 Risks to the outlook (continued) -- 1.14 Growth outcomes under alternative scenarios -- 1.15 Global policy challenges -- 1.16 EMDE monetary policy challenges -- 1.17 EMDE fiscal policy challenges -- 1.18 EMDE structural policy challenges -- 2.1.1 China: Recent developments -- 2.1.2 EAP excluding China: Recent developments -- 2.1.3 EAP: Outlook -- 2.1.4 EAP: Risks -- 2.2.1 ECA: Recent developments -- 2.2.2 ECA: Outlook -- 2.2.3 ECA: Risks -- 2.3.1 LAC: Recent developments -- 2.3.2 LAC: Outlook -- 2.3.3 LAC: Risks -- 2.4.1 MNA: Recent developments -- 2.4.2 MNA: Outlook -- 2.4.3 MNA: Risks -- 2.5.1 SAR: Recent developments -- 2.5.2 SAR: Outlook -- 2.5.3 SAR: Risks -- 2.6.1 SSA: Recent developments -- 2.6.2 SSA: Outlook -- 2.6.3 SSA: Risks -- 3.1 Evolution of investment growth -- 3.2 Frequency of investment accelerations -- 3.3 Investment growth during accelerations -- 3.4 Public versus private investment during investment accelerations -- 3.5 Growth of output during investment accelerations -- 3.6 Contributions to GDP growth during investment accelerations -- 3.7 Total factor productivity growth, employment growth, and sectoral shifts around investment accelerations -- 3.8 Macroeconomic indicators around investment accelerations -- 3.9 Development outcomes during investment accelerations -- 3.10 Initial conditions and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.11 Policy improvements and the start of investment accelerations -- 3.12 Enabling factors for investment accelerations 3.13 Policy packages and potential growth -- B3.1.1 Investment accelerations in the Republic of Korea and Malaysia -- B3.1.2 Investment accelerations in Poland and Türkiye -- B3.1.3 Investment accelerations in Colombia and Uruguay -- B3.1.4 Investment accelerations in Chile and Morocco -- B3.1.5 Investment accelerations in India and Uganda -- 4.1 Commodities: Price volatility and importance for exports and revenues -- 4.2 Procyclicality of government expenditures -- 4.3 Fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic factors in commodity exporters -- 4.4 Fiscal procyclicality, fiscal rules, and institutional factors -- B4.1.1 The amplification effect of procyclical fiscal policy on output -- 4.5 Fiscal policy volatility -- 4.6 Exchange rate regimes and capital account openness -- 4.7 Fiscal policy volatility and procyclicality -- 4.8 Fiscal volatility, growth, and fiscal frameworks -- B4.2.1 Fiscal rules, fiscal expenditures, and SWFs in commodity exporters -- B4.2.2 Fiscal expenditures and SWFs in Chile, Botswana, and Timor-Leste -- B4.2.3 Institutional quality and fiscal procyclicality -- Tables -- 1.1 Real GDP -- B1.2.1 Low-income country forecasts -- 1.2 Emerging market and developing economies -- 2.1.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary -- 2.1.2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts -- 2.2.1 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary -- 2.2.2 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts -- 2.3.1 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary -- 2.3.2 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts -- 2.4.1 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary -- 2.4.2 Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts -- 2.5.1 South Asia forecast summary -- 2.5.2 South Asia country forecasts -- 2.6.1 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary -- 2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts B3.1.1 Investment and output growth during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.2 Economic indicators during and outside investment accelerations -- B3.1.3 Policy changes and reforms during investment accelerations -- A3.1.1 Investment accelerations: Distribution over country groups -- A3.1.2 List of investment accelerations in EMDEs -- A3.2.1 Institutional quality and initial conditions as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.2.2 Institutional quality and policies as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations -- A3.3.1 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms -- A3.4.1 Investment accelerations using different duration parameters -- A3.4.2 Investment accelerations using different duration and growth parameters -- A3.4.3 Baseline regressions with additional controls -- A3.4.4 Baseline regressions based on investment growth (not in per capita terms) -- A4.1.1 Drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.2 Institutional drivers of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.1.3 Output growth and commodity prices -- A4.1.4 Government spending and commodity prices -- A4.2.1 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility: Cross-sectional regressions -- A4.2.2 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility -- by type of commodity -- A4.2.3 Effects of fiscal policy volatility on GDP per capita growth -- A4.3.1 List of economies for analysis of fiscal procyclicality and volatility -- A4.3.2 Variables for analysis of fiscal procyclicality -- A4.3.3 Variables for analysis of fiscal policy volatility |
| title | Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |
| title_auth | Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |
| title_exact_search | Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |
| title_full | Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |
| title_fullStr | Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |
| title_short | Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 |
| title_sort | global economic prospects january 2024 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT worldbankgroupworldbank globaleconomicprospectsjanuary2024 |