The economic analysis of random events: economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
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Cham
Palgrave Macmillan
[2024]
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | xvii, 182 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9783031530777 |
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MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The economic analysis of random events |b economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance |c Volkan Hacıoğlu |
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Contents 1 General Overviewand Structural Organization 1 1 1.1 Introduction References 3 2 The Nature of Randomnessand the Element of Chance 5 5 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Definitions of Randomness in Relation to the Element of Chance 2.3 From Personal Beliefs to Chance Situations: Facts and Artifacts of Scientific Reality 2.3.1 The Principal Principle and Chance Situations 2.3.2 The Basic Chance Principle and Humean Supervenience 2.4 Conclusion References 3 Rethinking the Concept of (In)Opportunity Cost and Parable of Broken Window: A Reflection on the Ideas of Frédéric Bastiat 3.1 3.2 Introduction Parable of Broken Window as Random Economic Event 3.2.1 The Difference Between Random Event and Random ‘Economic’ Event 25 8 10 10 12 17 20 23 23 24 xi
xii CONTENTS Broken Window Incident (De Re) as Opposed to Incidence (De Dicto): Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Analysis 3.2.3 The Concept of (In)Opportunitx Cost and the Element of Time 3.3 Lessons of Destruction: Learned and Unlearned 3.3.1 The Three-Partite Structural Function of Chance Situations in Alternative Life-Worlds with Different Icchnoloaical Endowments 3.3.2 The Adaptation of Learning Curve to the Theory of Creative Destruction 3.4 The Process of Creative Destruction and Cycles of Innovation 33 3.5 Closing Remarks References 3.2.2 4 The Effect of Human Action on Random Economic Events: Praxeological Learning and Its Relation to Artificial Intelligence 4.1 4.2 Introduction The Categorical Distinctions in Probability Theory: A Comparison of Random (Economic) Events in Collective Classes and Individual Cases 4.3 Learning and Praxcology: Praxcological Action Learning 49 4.4 From Action Learning by Humans to Active Learning bv Machines: The Relatioti of Praxcology to Artificial Intelligence 60 4.5 A Brief Overlook of the History of ChatGPT and Principles of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in Conclusion 57 References 5 The Question of Conjecture in Economics and Probability: On the Applicability of Probability Theory to the Randomness of Economic Events 5.1 Introduction 25 26 29 30 32 37 39 41 41 44 68 71 71
CONTENTS The Anatomie Panorama of Probability, Statistics and Truth in Relation to the Concept of Randomness and the Question of Conjecture From Historical Perspective 5.3 The Question of Conjecture in Relation to the Concepts of Certainty, Probability, Possibility and Impossibility 5.4 Keynes’ Logical Interpretation of Probability and His Intent to ‘Rehabilitate’ the Principle of Indifference Caused by Insufficient Reason 5.5 The Concept of ‘Kollektive’ and Limiting Value of Relative Frequencies Explained Within Carnapian Interpretation of Logical Probability 5.6 The Practical Application of Probability Theory to Random Economic Events Requires Construction of Local Collectives as Opposed to Unknown Statistical Populations 5.7 The Critique Concerning the Use of Probability in Economics and the Concept of Scientism in Relation to the Law of Frequency of Errors Together with Some Considerations for Closure References xiij 5.2 73 77 81 84 90 96 6 The Anatomy of Accident as a Deviation from Random Walk 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Introduction From the Classical Origins of the Problem of Random Walk Phenomenon to the Modern Model of Donsker’s Invariance Principle Use Practical Mapping of Random Walk: Kalman Filter Approach and Randomness Versus Stochasticity The Practical Mapping of Random Walk: Bortkiewicz’s the So-Called ‘Law of Small Numbers’ and the Data of Prussian Cavaliers Died by Warhorse Kick in Between 1875 and 1894 That Follows Poisson Distribution Final Remarks from the Retrospective to the Prospective Theory of Economic Thought in Relation to the Law of Small Numbers as
Opposed to the Law of Large Numbers 129 102 109 109 111 114 118
XIV CONTENTS Appendix 6.1: A Historical Example for the Practical Mapping of Random Walk: John Venn’s First Graphical Illustration Appendix 6.2 Appendix 6.3: Critical Considerations About the aBelief in the Law of Small Numbers” Versus Scaling Law—A Theoretical Note: Comment on Tvcrsky and Kahneman (1971) References 7 Observability and Learnability as Opposed to ‘Seen and Unseen’ 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Degrees of Observability in Relation to the States of Learnability 145 7.3 Two Examples for the observations of Concrete Situations as Opposed to Abstract Cases From the Science of Astronomy 148 7.4 Immutable Rules for Observability and Learnability in Conclusion 152 7.5 A Brief Comparison of How Random Events are Treated in Economics Versus Other Fields of Science: From the Historical Background of the Past to the Present Investigations 7.5.1 The Treatment of Randomness from the Viewpoint of Econophysics: Historical Background 7.5.2 The problem of‘Marginal Utility’ Measurement in a Statistical Method and the Approach of “Psychophysics” by Weber-Fechner Law Redesigned for Intertemporal Utility Analysis 7.5.3 The Treatment of Randomness from the Viewpoint of Econophysics: Contemporary Considerations in Relation to Scaling Laws versus Newton ’s Laws References 131 133 135 139 143 143 156 157 161 163 165 Name Index 169 Subject Index 173 |
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| indexdate | 2024-12-06T13:07:10Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783031530777 |
| language | English |
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| physical | xvii, 182 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| publishDate | 2024 |
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| spelling | Hacıoğlu, Volkan Verfasser aut The economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance Volkan Hacıoğlu Cham Palgrave Macmillan [2024] ©2024 xvii, 182 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Quantitative Economics Statistics in Business, Management, Economics, Finance, Insurance Probability Theory Philosophy of Probability History of Economic Thought and Methodology Econometrics Statistics Probabilities Philosophy Economics / History Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-3-031-53078-4 (DE-604)BV049781023 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035137432&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Hacıoğlu, Volkan The economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance Quantitative Economics Statistics in Business, Management, Economics, Finance, Insurance Probability Theory Philosophy of Probability History of Economic Thought and Methodology Econometrics Statistics Probabilities Philosophy Economics / History |
| title | The economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance |
| title_auth | The economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance |
| title_exact_search | The economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance |
| title_full | The economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance Volkan Hacıoğlu |
| title_fullStr | The economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance Volkan Hacıoğlu |
| title_full_unstemmed | The economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance Volkan Hacıoğlu |
| title_short | The economic analysis of random events |
| title_sort | the economic analysis of random events economic perspectives on probability theory statistical inference and the nature of chance |
| title_sub | economic perspectives on probability theory, statistical inference and the nature of chance |
| topic | Quantitative Economics Statistics in Business, Management, Economics, Finance, Insurance Probability Theory Philosophy of Probability History of Economic Thought and Methodology Econometrics Statistics Probabilities Philosophy Economics / History |
| topic_facet | Quantitative Economics Statistics in Business, Management, Economics, Finance, Insurance Probability Theory Philosophy of Probability History of Economic Thought and Methodology Econometrics Statistics Probabilities Philosophy Economics / History |
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