Quantifying counterfactual military history:
"Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boca Raton, FL
CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group
2023
|
| Schriftenreihe: | ASA-CRC series on statistical reasoning in science and society
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | DE-29 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"-- |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9780429488405 9780429948800 |
| DOI: | 10.1201/9780429488405 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Quantifying counterfactual military history |c Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall Mackay, Christopher Price and A. Jamie Wood |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Could history have been otherwise? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Jutland? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Britain? -- Could the USA have prevailed in Vietnam? -- The road to Able Archer : counterfactual reasoning and the dangerous history of nuclear deterrence 1945-1983 -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Some mathematical background (with no equations) | |
| 520 | 3 | |a "Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"-- | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Imaginary wars and battles | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Military art and science / Decision making / Mathematical models | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Combat / Mathematical models | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Military history / Methodology | |
| 653 | 6 | |a Counterfactual histories | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Horwood, Ian |d 1957- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1146974787 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a MacKay, Niall J. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1068244771 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Price, Christopher G. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1297256344 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wood, A. Jamie |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| author | Fagan, Brennen Horwood, Ian 1957- MacKay, Niall J. Price, Christopher G. Wood, A. Jamie |
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| author_facet | Fagan, Brennen Horwood, Ian 1957- MacKay, Niall J. Price, Christopher G. Wood, A. Jamie |
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| contents | Could history have been otherwise? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Jutland? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Britain? -- Could the USA have prevailed in Vietnam? -- The road to Able Archer : counterfactual reasoning and the dangerous history of nuclear deterrence 1945-1983 -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Some mathematical background (with no equations) |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1456121336 (DE-599)BVBBV049765110 |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1201/9780429488405 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| id | DE-604.BV049765110 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-10-15T10:04:00Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780429488405 9780429948800 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-035106434 |
| oclc_num | 1456121336 |
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| physical | 1 Online-Ressource Illustrationen |
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| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateSearch | 2023 |
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| publisher | CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group |
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| series2 | ASA-CRC series on statistical reasoning in science and society |
| spelling | Fagan, Brennen Verfasser aut Quantifying counterfactual military history Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall Mackay, Christopher Price and A. Jamie Wood Boca Raton, FL CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group 2023 1 Online-Ressource Illustrationen txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier ASA-CRC series on statistical reasoning in science and society Could history have been otherwise? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Jutland? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Britain? -- Could the USA have prevailed in Vietnam? -- The road to Able Archer : counterfactual reasoning and the dangerous history of nuclear deterrence 1945-1983 -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Some mathematical background (with no equations) "Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"-- Imaginary wars and battles Military art and science / Decision making / Mathematical models Combat / Mathematical models Military history / Methodology Counterfactual histories Horwood, Ian 1957- Verfasser (DE-588)1146974787 aut MacKay, Niall J. Verfasser (DE-588)1068244771 aut Price, Christopher G. Verfasser (DE-588)1297256344 aut Wood, A. Jamie Verfasser aut Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe, hardback 9781138594524 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe, paperback 9781138592384 https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429488405 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Fagan, Brennen Horwood, Ian 1957- MacKay, Niall J. Price, Christopher G. Wood, A. Jamie Quantifying counterfactual military history Could history have been otherwise? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Jutland? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Britain? -- Could the USA have prevailed in Vietnam? -- The road to Able Archer : counterfactual reasoning and the dangerous history of nuclear deterrence 1945-1983 -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Some mathematical background (with no equations) |
| title | Quantifying counterfactual military history |
| title_auth | Quantifying counterfactual military history |
| title_exact_search | Quantifying counterfactual military history |
| title_full | Quantifying counterfactual military history Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall Mackay, Christopher Price and A. Jamie Wood |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying counterfactual military history Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall Mackay, Christopher Price and A. Jamie Wood |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying counterfactual military history Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall Mackay, Christopher Price and A. Jamie Wood |
| title_short | Quantifying counterfactual military history |
| title_sort | quantifying counterfactual military history |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429488405 |
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