Subversion: from covert operations to cyber conflict
"In 2014, Russia launched a "Hybrid War" against Ukraine that, according to some, ushered in a revolution in conflict. The term is notoriously vague, referring to all measures short of war states use to attain strategic aims. States, of course, have long used measures in the "gra...
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY
Oxford University Press
[2024]
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis Register // Gemischte Register Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis Register // Gemischte Register |
| Zusammenfassung: | "In 2014, Russia launched a "Hybrid War" against Ukraine that, according to some, ushered in a revolution in conflict. The term is notoriously vague, referring to all measures short of war states use to attain strategic aims. States, of course, have long used measures in the "gray zone" between war and peace. Yet they did not always have the Internet."-- |
| Beschreibung: | x, 338 Seiten Illustrationen 23,5 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780197745861 9780197745854 |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Subversion and Power -- Information Technology and Subversion -- Traditional Subversion : Crushing the Prague Spring 1968-1973 -- Cyber-Enabled Subversion : Russia's 'Hybrid War' against Ukraine 2013-2018 -- Subversion in War : Russia's full-scale Invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 -- New possibilities and new perils | |
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| 653 | 0 | |a Subversive activities / Russia (Federation) | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Disinformation / Russia (Federation) | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Psychological warfare / Russia (Federation) | |
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| 653 | 2 | |a Ukraine / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) | |
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| 653 | 0 | |a Guerre psychologique / Russie | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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Contents List ofFigures Preface vii ix Introduction 1 1. Subversion and Power 17 2. Information Technology and Subversion 42 3. Traditional Subversion: Crushing the Prague Spring, 1968-1973 60 4. Cyber-Enabled Subversion: Russia’s “Hybrid War” against Ukraine, 2013-2022 117 5. Subversion in War: Russia’s full-scale Invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 174 Conclusion: New Possibilities and New Perils Notes Bibliography Index 207 229 291 329
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Index For the benefit of digital users, indexed terms that span two pages (e.g., 52-53) may, on occasion, appear on only one of those pages. Tables and figures are indicated by t and ffollowing the page number AcidRain malware, 191 AES-NI cybercrime tool, 161 Aksyonov, Sergey, 127 ALLA, illegal agent, 102-3 Andropov, Yuri, 66,67-68,82,85,87,91 Arbuzov, Serhiy, 187-88 ARTYMOVA, illegal agent, 102-3 Azarov, Mykola, 187-88 BadRabbit ransomware, 164-67 balancing trilemma, 164-67 effects, 165-66 strategic role, 165 targets, 165 Bakanov, Ivan, 194-95,196 Bilak, Vasil, 65-66,84-85 BlackEnergy malware, 134,135 2015 Blackout (Ukraine), 136-41 development time, 137 GE CIMPLICITY HMI (Human Machine Interface) systems, 138 role of luck 137,138-39 trilemma trade-offs 139-40 Effects 139-41 SCADA systems, 138 Bogdan, Vasily, 151-52 BootPatch malware, 179-80 Borzov, Gennadi, 71 botnet, 181-82 Brandt, Willy, 26 ‘Brezhnev Doctrine,' 63,69 Brezhnev, Leonid, 64,65-67,68,78-79, 81,84-86,89,91,92,94-95, 104,111 Brusov, Georgiy, 128-29 CaddyWiper malware, 185-86,200 Cerny, Vaclav, 72-73,74 Chaliy, Aleksei, 125-26 “Charter 77,” 113 Chernovtsoblenergo, 137 from Cold War to hybrid war, 208-11 “Complex of Measures” document, 11920,122,125,188 computer code, 44 contingency planning, failure and fallback to, 86-92 control, in subversive trilemma, 4,12,13/, 13-14,35-38,40-41,42-43,55, 56,57-58 BadRabbit operation, 172,180-81 in cyber conflicts, 57-58 in fulfilling strategic promise, 99-100 HermeticWiper, 183-84 as key determinant of strategic value, 36-37 KHODOKI operations, 61,114 NotPetya and the
limits of control, 157-64 power grid sabotage attempt in April 2022,202 in PROGRESS operations, 61 Soviet Union over Czechoslovakia, 92-93 speed and intensity and, inverse correlation between, 36,76-77,95, 100-1,179,224-25 when intensity increases, 55 control over targets, 34-38 covert operations, 68,117 definition 7-8 advantages of, 29-30
330 INDEX covert operations (cont.) assassination plots, 74-75 clandestine mode versus, 7-8 covert warfare secrecy lowering escalation risks in, 3-4,29 cyber operations as, 2-3 cyber operations versus, 9,13-14,45, 48-50,51-52 effects, 9,10,13-14,24,27,48-49,5152,72,117 “escalation ladder’ for, 72 as independent tools of statecraft, 8 information technology aiding, 10 strategic value of, 9 subversive operations versus, 22-23 traditional subversion and, 24 use of force, 214 -15 Crimea Blackout (2015), 137,141-44 Crimean power grid sabotage, 137, 141-44 critical infrastructure sabotage, 115-16, 175-76,196-201 CaddyWiper malware, 200 Crimea Blackout (2015), 137,141-44 enabled by territorial conquest, 197-98 INDUSTROYER and energy sector sabotage, 150,200 Kyiv Blackout (2016), 144-50 operations in Ukraine, 196-201 attempt to disrupt the power grid, 196-97 disrupting Ukrtelecom, 196-97 Russia against Ukraine, 118 Sandworm hacking group strikes back, 196-201 Sandworm I (2015 Blackout), 136-41 (see also 2015 Blackout [Ukraine]) Sandworm II (2016 Kyiv Blackout), 144-50 (see also Kyiv Blackout, 2016) Sandworm strikes back in Ukraine, 196-201 through cyber means, 119 CyberBerkut hacker group, 132-33 cyber-enabled subversion, 117-73. See also “hybrid war,” Russia against Ukraine (2013-2018) cyber operations, 42-43 “attack surface” for, 49 comparison to traditional subversion, 42-43,55-56 in degrading material capabilities, 51 in disrupting the economy, 51 effects, 47-48 scope and scale of, 48,53 challenges, 42-43,49-50 for long-term “erosion” strategies, 50 (see also erosion
strategies) manipulating government policy, 51 in manipulating public opinion, 50-51 relative advantages, 42-43,48-50 strategic role and promise of, 48-52 subversive nature, 3-4 scalability, 48-49 cyber power, subversive nature of, 43-48 phishing, 44 social vulnerabilities targeted, 43-44 technical vulnerabilities targeted, 43-44 “Cyberpunk” hacker group, 43-44 Czechoslovakia, 15 Andropov’s strategy on, 68,87 anti-Soviet nationalism” in, 116 armed force, 67-68 KGB’s illegals in, 14-15,61, 111, 192 (see also KHODOKI campaign; PROGRESS campaign) Kremlin perception and strategic goals, 63-70 Prague Spring and, 60 (see also Prague Spring (1968-1973), crushing the) Soviet strategic goals at, 98-99,101,102 Soviets’ subversion failure in, 61,17677,208 as a “testing ground” for subversion use, 14-15 Danyliuk, Oleksandr, 160-61 Derkach, Andriy, 193 diplomacy definition, 19 interaction with use of force, 19,25,117 interaction with subversion, 1 -2,64,70, 92-93,121-22 interaction with warfare, 1-2,17-18, 19,21
INDEX distributed denial of service (DDoS), 178-87,201 Dobrynin, Anatolii, 69-70 Donbass failure and escalation, 129-31 Dubcek, Alexander, 60,62,64,65,66-67, 81,84-87,91,92-93,104,105, 106-7,109,110,114 Dubov, Dmitry, 128-29,155 economic and psychological (cyber) warfare, 178-88 erosion strategies, 28,30-31,50 causing collateral cognitive damage, 223-24 cyber operations as, 50,56-57 effects of, 28 long-term campaigns effects on the balance of power, 219-20,223 by Russia in Ukraine, 118—19 2014,118-19 2022,174,178 strategic role, 57 strategic value of, 39-40 in subversive campaigns, 42-43 to undermine trust, 223-24 to weaken the adversary, 28 escalation, 56-57 in Czechoslovakia, role of subversion, 90-91,93-94,113-14,216-17 in the Donbass region, 129-31 “escalation ladder’ for covert operations, 72,74-75,76,95,117-18,136-37, 143,146,151,194,198-99 KHODOKI campaign in, 62-63 Kremlin decision to invade Czechoslovakia, 176-77,208 lowered risks in covert warfare, 3-4, 7-8,29 military escalation, 10,213,214-15, 218 subversion lowering the risk of, 29-30, 37-39 time pressure as the cause, 213 in Ukraine, 174,210-11 exploitation analysis of the mechanism of, 75,11112,224-25 challenges in the process of, 40-41 331 of computer systems, 46,48 as distinguishing feature of subversion, 23-24 failure of, 203 force use to facilitate, 23-24 immaterial means of, 46-47 indirect and secret nature of, 25 by IsaacWiper, 184-85 prevention of, 226-27 of psychological and sociological vulnerabilities, 7,21 secret mode of operation, 22-23, 30,31,38 spies using the technique of, 26,103-4 by
subversion, in practice, 17-18 subversion speed limited by, 3132,35,37 subversion’s reliance on, 3-4,7,11-12, 21,23-24,207 as subversive nature of cyber power, 43 traditional subversion and, 5152,55, 57 of Ukrtelecom’s network, 197 using unpatched VPN device, 191,199 of vulnerabilities in ICTs, 43-44, 45,48,57 Fedorov, Mykhailo, 182 firmware, 44,190,191 force, 24-25,69 and diplomacy, 19-20 military force, 67-68,75,84-85,105, 116,126-27 spies using, 23-24 subjugation by, 69-70 subversion in the service of, 188-96 subversion versus, 7,17-18,25,28-31, 38-39,174-75 Frolov, Kirill, 14,120-21,122-23,126-27, 130 FYODOROV illegal agent, 102-3,111-12 GE CIMPLICITY HMI (Human Machine Interface) systems, 138 German Stasi Records Agency, 14 Glazyev, Sergey Yuryevich, 122-23,126,127 government policy, subversion influencing, 26
332 INDEX Granovski, Vladimir, 123 Grechko, Marshal, 109 GreenPetya ransomware, 159,160 GreyEnergy group, 141 Groysman, Volodymyr, 151-52 Guillaume, Günther, 26 hacking, 11-12,134 APT28,132 cyber operations as, 43-44 CyberBerkut, 132 “Cyberpunk” hacker group, 43-44 hack-and-leak operations, 50-51 KillDisk module, 137,156-57 over industrial control systems, 53,139 Russian sponsored, in Ukraine, 118, 120-21,131-32 Sean Townsend, 160 stealth in, 45 subversive nature of, 45,46 target systems for, 55,138 Ukrainian hacktivists, 127 Viasat hack, 189-90,191,211,217 vulnerabilities targeted, 43-44 “HermeticWiper” malware, 183-85 Husak, Gustav, 62-63,110 “hybrid war,” Russian strategy against Ukraine (2013-2018), 117-73. See also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “Complex of Measures” document, . 119-20,122 Donbass failure and escalation, 129-31 economic warfare, Sandworms pivot to scale, 153-67 Euromaidan movement, 122 Kremlin perception and strategic goals, 119-22 new technology, old limitations, 169-73 public trust in the government, 170,171/ Russia turning to subversion, 118 sabotage, cyber versus traditional subversion, 135-53 GE CIMPLICITY HMI systems, 138 KillDisk module, 137 learning requirement, 139 Sandworm I: The 2015 Blackout, 136-41 SCADA systems, 138 Sandworm II, The 2016 Kyiv Blackout, 144-50 Sandworm III, The 2016 compromise of the Ministry of Finance 154-57 Sandworm IV, NotPetya and the limits of control, 157-64 Sandworm V, BadRabbit, 164-67 (see also BadRabbit ransomware) shadow forces take Crimea, 124-29 Euromaidan crisis, 127 “pro-Russian demonstrators,” 126 subversion
falters for Russia, 122-24 constraints posed by the trilemma, 124 Ukraine Cyber Alliance, 123 subversive election interference, 2014-2015,131-35 traditional sabotage 1,2015 Crimea Blackout, 141-44 operation and cyber sabotage, difference between, 143 traditional sabotage II, arms depot explosion in Kalynivka, 150-53 Ukrainian D-30 artillery and the tactical sabotage, 167-69 illegal agents, 15,67-68. See also KHODOKI campaign; PROGRESS campaign advantage of, 80-81 Aleksandr Alekseev, 71 ALLA, 102-3 ARTYMOVA, 102-3 in Czechoslovakia, sent by Andropov, 67-68 during Prague Spring, 71 FYODOROV, 102-3,111-12 Gennadi Borzov, 71 Georgii Fedyashin, 71 of KGB, infiltrating Western societies, 23,61 KRAVCHENKO, 110 Mikhail Sagatelyan, 84 near the West German border, 76,80-81 Vladimir Surzhaninov, 71 V. Umnov, 71
INDEX Indra, Alois, 84-85 industrial control system (ICS), 48,55, 138,139,145-46,149-50 GE CIMPLICITY HMI (Human Machine Interface) systems, 138 SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems, 138 TRITON malware, 53 INDUSTROYER, 145,146-48,149, 150,200 information communications and technologies (ICTs), 43-44 information technology and subversion, 42-59. See also cyber operations insider threats, 197-98,199 in cybersecurity, 220 intelligence, 5-6,7 artificial intelligence, 226-27 collection activity, 65,71,82-84,192-93 byKSC.84,86 ' by Ukrainian KGB, 85 CyberBerkut, 132 Israel’s intelligence service, 219 by KGB agent(s) in Czechoslovakia, 7273,74,76-77,108 open-source intelligence, 4-5,14 operations, 7-8 in Greece, 27-28 Russian intelligence services in Ukraine, 151-52,162 GRU, 163,181-82 Russian intelligence services to Chernobyl, 195-96 slanted intelligence, 82,91,17677,187-88 theory, 1-2 “threat intelligence” providers, 54 Ukrainian intelligence services, 14144,193 WhisperGate, 179-80 intensity, in subversive trilemma, 4,12, 13/, 13-14,35-38,40-41,42-43, 55,56,57-58 BadRabbit operation, 172,180-81 control and speed and, inverse correlation between, 36,76-77,95, 100-1,179,224-25 in cyber conflicts, 57-58 333 as determinant of strategic value, 36-37 in fulfilling strategic promise, 99-100 HermeticWiper, 183-84 KHODOKI operations, 61,114 NotPetya and the limits of control, 157-64 power grid sabotage attempt in April 2022,202 in PROGRESS operations, 61 Soviet Union over Czechoslovakia, 92-93 international relations theory, 7 IsaacWiper, 184-85 Kalugin, Oleg, 91
Kalynivka, arms depot explosion in, 150-53 Katana malware, 182 KHODOKI campaign, 61,62-63,70-92, 208 major subversive operations, 72 exploitation mechanism, 75 fake arms caches influence, 77,79 KGB, errors by, 76-77 kidnapping leading intellectuals, 72 planting false flag “evidence,” 76 using GROMOV, 73,74 using GURYEV, 73,74 weakening the liberalization movement, 72 KHODOKI Redux, 104-10 “Aeroflot Incident,” 104-10 Dubceks “conspiracy theory” flaws, 107 Vltava radio station, 104-5 Zpravy magazine, 104-5 Kievoblenergors, 137 KillDisk malware, 139,154,156-57 Kluyev, Andriy, 187-88 Kolder, Drahomir, 84-85 Kolesnichenko, Vadim, 124 Kovalchuk, Vsevolod, 146 Koval, Nikolay, 133,148-49,163-64 KRAVCHENKO illegal agent, 110 Kremlin Brezhnev doctrine and, 69 “Complex of Measures” document, 119-20,122
334 INDEX Kremlin (cent.) cyber-enabled subversion against Ukraine by, 119-22 Euromaidan movement, 122 leaked documents and emails, 4-5 “loss” of Czechoslovakia, prevention plans, 67,98-99,109 Prague Spring and, 60,63-70 Prozumenshchikov’s analysis of, 68,116 reliance on diplomacy, force, and subversion, 64 subversive activities by, 101-2,117-18 taking Crimea, contingency plan, 124-29 in Ukraine invasion, 2022,176-78 economic and psychological (cyber) warfare, 178,187-88 subversion in the service of force, 188-96 Krivosheev, Vladlen, 78 Kryvoruchko, Serhiy, 194-95 Kyiv Blackout, 2016 (Ukraine), 144-50 destructive potential of malware, 146 development time, 145-46 effects and strategic value, 150 failure of malware, 148-50 INDUSTROYER developed, 145,14648,149,150 Severyana power substation de energized, 145 signaling interpretations and problems, 146-49 Lappi, Leo, 102-3,111-12 Lavrov, Sergej, 177 Lenin, Vladimir, 8 Makhalkina, Μ., 121 Malofeev, Konstantin, 123 Markovets, Sergiy, 163-64 Medvedchuk, Viktor, 196 Medvedev, Dmitry, 142 military escalation, 10,213,214-15,218 Ministry of Finance compromise, 2016,154-57 development time, 154-55 effects and strategic value, 155 KillDisk malware, 154 vulnerabilities exploited, 156-57 Mirai malware, 182 Moonraker worm, 159 Morris, Robert Tappan, 54-55 “Morris worm,” 54-55 Naftogaz, 197-98 Nalivaychenko, Valentin, 127-28 Narozhnyy, Pavlo, 168-69 Naumov, Andriy, 195-96 nonintervention principle, 29-30 NotPetya malware, 157-64 AES-NI cybercrime tool, 161 collateral damage and loss of control, 157-64 data and computers, disabled, 157-58
development time, 159 disk wiping functionality 158-59 effects and strategic value, 153,160-61 163,172 supply-chain mechanism, 159-60,162 XData., 159,161 Novikov, Andrey, 126-27,130 Novotny, Antonin, 64 Nye, Joseph, 20,140-41 October CMS exploited, 178-79,180-81 Ohryzko, Volodymyr, 120-21 Pachman, Ludek, 110 Parubiy, Andriy, 151-52 persistent engagement, 6 and erosion, 219-20 limitations, 50 phishing, 47-48,137 exploitation by, 44 to exploit software vulnerabilities, 46 by Sandworm, 134,154-55 Podesta, John, 44 Poroshenko, Petro, 158 power as an essential contested concept, 18 diplomacy as an instrument of, 19 force as an instrument of, 19-20 and subversion, 17-41 in world politics, 18-20 power grid sabotage operation, 154,157, 159,172
INDEX Prague Spring (1968-1973), crushing the, 60-116. See also KHODOKI Redux “armed counterrevolution,” 62 contingency planning, failure and fallback to, 86-92 KHODOKI failure, 90-91 PROGRESS failure, 90-91 failed coup and tanks in Prague, 92-99 ambitious operational design, 98-99 constraints posed by the trilemma, 95 Czechoslovak radio stations continued operation, 96 lack of adequate preparation, 97 military invasion, 93 public resistance, 98 regime change failure, 93,94-95 subversive actors influence, 93-94 "illegal" spying activities, 67-68 intelligence collection activity, 65 KHODOKI campaign, 61,62-63,70-92 Kremlin perception and strategic goals, 63-70 “normalization” and permanent occupation, 99-113 illegal agents role deepened, 102-3 KHODOKI operations, scaled down, 100-1 “massive interference,” 101-2 PROGRESS, lack of impact from, 103-4 PROGRESS and a normalization incomplete, 110-13 disillusionment with the reformist leaders, 112-13 economic recovery from 1972,112-13 PROGRESS campaign, 61,62-63, 70-92 “Silent Invasion,” commencing, 70-92 operational timelines, 71 training, 71 subversion and military force, 67 Prochizka, Jan, 72-73,74 PROGRESS campaign, 61,62-63,70-92, 208 and a normalization incomplete, 110-13 335 subverting government and civil society, 81-86 established network of spies and informers, 82-83 GROMOV agent, 81-82 GURYEV agent, 81-82 HUMINT collection, 84 KGB records on Czechoslovakia, 83/ SADKO agent, 81-82 YEFRAT agent, 81-82 YEVDOKIMOV agent, 81-82 Prykarpattyaoblenergo, 137 psychological vulnerability, 7,21 public opinion, subversion
influencing, 26 Putin, Vladimir, 121,146-47,177,196 Python/TeleBot.A malware, 159 quality of subversion, 38-41,57-59 continuity over change in, 57-59 independent and a complementary strategic role, 57 secret exploitation and manipulation, 57 subversive trilemma persisting, 57-58 defining, 38-41 operational trilemma, 39 significant strategic value, 38-39 quantity over quality, 207-27 regime change, subversion in, 27 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 2022,174206. See also “hybrid war,” Russia against Ukraine (2013-2018) BootPatch malware, 179-80 botched coup, 187-88 botnet operation, 181-82 CaddyWiper malware, 185-86 critical infrastructure sabotage, 196-201 attack enabled by territorial conquest, 197-98 defacements, 178-87 distributed denial of service (DDoS), 178-87 DNSs targeted, 182 economic and psychological (cyber) warfare, 178-87
336 INDEX Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 2022 (cont.) "HermeticWiper" malware, 183-84 IsaacWiper, 184-85 Katana malware, 182 Kremlin perception and goals, 176-78 October CMS exploited, 178-79,180-81 subversion in the service of force, 188-96 AcidRain malware, 191 KA-SAT disruption, 190,191-92 WhisperGate malware, 179,180,181 Whisper-Kill malware, 179 WhiteBlackCrypt, 179-80 wipers, 178-87 sabotage. See also critical infrastructure sabotage curious case of the artillery, 167-69 cyber operations best suited for, 46 cyber versus traditional subversion, 135-53,1361,209-10,219 Kalynivka, arms depot explosion in,150-53 KGB operation in Greece, 27-28 of a power substation in Germany, by a KGB agent, 23 Russian-sponsored cyber operations against Ukraine in, 118 Stuxnet operation, 10 as subversive operations goal, 8,26 Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance compromise (2016), 154-57 Ukraine’s power grid, 2-3 Ukrtelecom disruption, 201 “unknown unknowns” risk in, 34 Viasat compromise, 201 Sagatelyan, Mikhail, 84-86,87 Sandworm hacking group, 133-34 economic warfare, Sandworm’s pivot to scale, 153-67 Sandworm I (2015 Blackout), 136-41 (see also 2015 Blackout) Sandworm II (2016 Kyiv Blackout), 144-50 (see also Kyiv Blackout, 2016) Sandworm III, (Ministry of Finance compromise, 2016), 154-57 (see also Ministry of Finance compromise, 2016) Sandworm IV (NotPetya and the limits of control), 157-64 (see also NotPetya malware) Sandworm V (BadRabbit), 164-67 (see also BadRabbit ransomware) SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems, 138. See also industrial control system (ICS) GE
CIMPLICITY HMI (Human Machine Interface) systems, 138 Sivkovich, Vladimir, 187-88 Smrkovsky, Josef, 84-86,104-5 “social engineering,” 44 social vulnerabilities, 7,11 -12,21,44,5253,134,137 speed, in subversive trilemma, 4,12,13/ 13-14,35-38,40-41,42-43,55, 56,57-58 BadRabbit operation, 172,180-81 control and intensity and, inverse correlation between, 36,76-77,95, 100-1,179,224-25 in cyber conflicts, 57-58 in fulfilling strategic promise, 99-100 HermeticWiper, 183-84 as key determinant of strategic value, 36-37 KHODOKI operations, 61,114 NotPetya and the limits of control, 157-64 power grid sabotage attempt in April 2022,202 in PROGRESS operations, 61 Soviet Union over Czechoslovakia, 92-93 spies, 53 advantages, 17-18 cautions to follow, 33 exploiting flawed security rules and practices, 23 exploiting individual-level vulnerabilities, 23 force and coercion use by, 23-24,33 illegals, definition, 67-68 in PROGRESS, 102-4 risks, 37 as subversion key tool, 17-18,23 traditional subversion using, 11-12 undercover spies, 26-28,225
INDEX stability and subversion, 207,213 Stoltenberg, Jens, 190 Stuxnet, 10-11,47-48,52-53,56,14647,219 subversion. See also quality of subversion alternate explanations and limitations, 221-27 basic conditions of, 31-34 available target with suitable vulnerabilities, 31-32 exploiting vulnerability without being discovered, 34-36 subversive agent with suitable abilities, 32-33 falters for Russia, 122-24 force and warfare versus, 7 influencing government policy, 26 influencing public opinion, 26 influencing target state’s material capabilities, 26 as an instrument of power, 5,7 limits of, 113-16 constraints and trade-offs predicted by trilemma, 114 dependence on vulnerabilities in societies, 116 reliance on illegal agents, 113-14 use of force, 114 new possibilities and new perils, 207 nonmilitary options as, 7-8 offering strategic potential, 29 and power, 17-41 power through exploitation and manipulation, 21-25 reduces cost of escalation, 29 reduces follow-on costs, 30 in regime change, 27 in the service of force, 188-96 speed, intensity, and control variables and, 35-37 spies as key tools of, 23 strategic potential in scholarship and strategy, 5-6 strategic role and promise of, 25-31 targeting systems, 22 technological change changing, 5 trilemma and strategic value, 31-38 types of effects, 50 337 undermining institutional effectiveness, 26-27 use in invasion, 211 in war, 174-206 (see also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) subversive election interference, 20142015,131-35 subversive trilemma, 11,12-13,13/, 16,52-58 limiting strategic value, 31-38,90 control over effects, 34,104
intensity of effects, 32-33 in speed, 31-32 Surkov, Vladislav, 14,123,126 Surzhaninov, Vladimir, 71 Svoboda, Ludvik, 93-94,105 tactical sabotage, 167-69 Ukrainian D-30 artillery, 168 tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), 54 technical vulnerability, 43,44,45, 52-53 TeleBots group, 141 Townsend, Sean, 148-49,168 traditional sabotage 1,2015 Crimea Blackout, 141-44 traditional subversion, 3-4,5-6,8,24,5556,60-116. See also Prague Spring (1968-1973), crushing the vis-a-vis cyber-enabled subversion, 4-5 traditional versus cyber sabotage, 13553,136t TRITON malware, 53,55 Turchynov, Oleksandr, 152-53 Ukraine Cyber Alliance, 123 Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance compromise (2016), 154-57 power grid sabotage operation 2015,157,159,172 2022,202 Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection (SSSCIP), 179-80, 186,189,197-99 Ukrainian D-30 artillery and the tactical sabotage, 168 Ukrenergo, 143-44
338 INDEX Ukrtelecom disruption, 201 Umnov, V., 71 Vaculik, Ludvik, 81-82 Venediktova, Irina, 194-95 Viasat compromise, 201 Vltava radio station, 104-5 vulnerability in adversary systems, 41 agents using, 24 cyber operations exploiting, 43-44 identifying, 12,21,31-32, 52-53,80-81 in information communications and technologies (ICTs), 43-44,48,49 individual-level vulnerabilities, 23 INDUSTROYER exploiting, 149 NotPetya malware exploiting, 157-58 in October CMS, 178-79 psychological, 7,21 social, 44, 52-53,134,137 sociological, 7,11-12,21 software vulnerabilities, 46 spies exploiting, 23-24 subversion depends on, 31,116,129-30, 210,226 subversive operations using, 26,39,42 technical, 43,44,45,52-53 ofUkraine, 140-41,146,156 ofVPN devices, 191 zero-day, 138 warfare and diplomacy, 1-2,19,21 website defacements (Ukraine), 178-87 WhisperGate malware, 179,180,181 WhisperKill malware, 179 WhiteBlackCrypt, 179-80 world politics, power in, 18-20 world politics, subversion implications for, 211-21 balance of power remains unaffected, 212-13 destabilizing mass effects and systemic disruption risk, 215-16 increases the risk of unintended/ inadvertent escalation, 216-19 stabilizes world politics, 213 state-society and states-nonstate actors relations impacted, 221 traditional subversion still more relevantin, 219-20 XData malware, 159,161 , Yakovlev, Aleksandr, 96 Yanukovych, Viktor, 117-18,121-22, 124-26,130 Yuryevich, Sergey, 123 Zatulin, Konstantin, 126 Zelenskiy, Volodymyr, 187,194-95 zero-dayvulnerability, 138 Zhivkov, 84-85 Zhora, Victor, 132,133,134,148-49,180, 186,189,202-205
Zpravy magazine, 104-5 Bayerische Staatsbibliothek München
Contents List ofFigures Preface vii ix Introduction 1 1. Subversion and Power 17 2. Information Technology and Subversion 42 3. Traditional Subversion: Crushing the Prague Spring, 1968-1973 60 4. Cyber-Enabled Subversion: Russia’s “Hybrid War” against Ukraine, 2013-2022 117 5. Subversion in War: Russia’s full-scale Invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 174 Conclusion: New Possibilities and New Perils Notes Bibliography Index 207 229 291 329
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Index For the benefit of digital users, indexed terms that span two pages (e.g., 52-53) may, on occasion, appear on only one of those pages. Tables and figures are indicated by t and ffollowing the page number AcidRain malware, 191 AES-NI cybercrime tool, 161 Aksyonov, Sergey, 127 ALLA, illegal agent, 102-3 Andropov, Yuri, 66,67-68,82,85,87,91 Arbuzov, Serhiy, 187-88 ARTYMOVA, illegal agent, 102-3 Azarov, Mykola, 187-88 BadRabbit ransomware, 164-67 balancing trilemma, 164-67 effects, 165-66 strategic role, 165 targets, 165 Bakanov, Ivan, 194-95,196 Bilak, Vasil, 65-66,84-85 BlackEnergy malware, 134,135 2015 Blackout (Ukraine), 136-41 development time, 137 GE CIMPLICITY HMI (Human Machine Interface) systems, 138 role of luck 137,138-39 trilemma trade-offs 139-40 Effects 139-41 SCADA systems, 138 Bogdan, Vasily, 151-52 BootPatch malware, 179-80 Borzov, Gennadi, 71 botnet, 181-82 Brandt, Willy, 26 ‘Brezhnev Doctrine,' 63,69 Brezhnev, Leonid, 64,65-67,68,78-79, 81,84-86,89,91,92,94-95, 104,111 Brusov, Georgiy, 128-29 CaddyWiper malware, 185-86,200 Cerny, Vaclav, 72-73,74 Chaliy, Aleksei, 125-26 “Charter 77,” 113 Chernovtsoblenergo, 137 from Cold War to hybrid war, 208-11 “Complex of Measures” document, 11920,122,125,188 computer code, 44 contingency planning, failure and fallback to, 86-92 control, in subversive trilemma, 4,12,13/, 13-14,35-38,40-41,42-43,55, 56,57-58 BadRabbit operation, 172,180-81 in cyber conflicts, 57-58 in fulfilling strategic promise, 99-100 HermeticWiper, 183-84 as key determinant of strategic value, 36-37 KHODOKI operations, 61,114 NotPetya and the
limits of control, 157-64 power grid sabotage attempt in April 2022,202 in PROGRESS operations, 61 Soviet Union over Czechoslovakia, 92-93 speed and intensity and, inverse correlation between, 36,76-77,95, 100-1,179,224-25 when intensity increases, 55 control over targets, 34-38 covert operations, 68,117 definition 7-8 advantages of, 29-30
330 INDEX covert operations (cont.) assassination plots, 74-75 clandestine mode versus, 7-8 covert warfare secrecy lowering escalation risks in, 3-4,29 cyber operations as, 2-3 cyber operations versus, 9,13-14,45, 48-50,51-52 effects, 9,10,13-14,24,27,48-49,5152,72,117 “escalation ladder’ for, 72 as independent tools of statecraft, 8 information technology aiding, 10 strategic value of, 9 subversive operations versus, 22-23 traditional subversion and, 24 use of force, 214 -15 Crimea Blackout (2015), 137,141-44 Crimean power grid sabotage, 137, 141-44 critical infrastructure sabotage, 115-16, 175-76,196-201 CaddyWiper malware, 200 Crimea Blackout (2015), 137,141-44 enabled by territorial conquest, 197-98 INDUSTROYER and energy sector sabotage, 150,200 Kyiv Blackout (2016), 144-50 operations in Ukraine, 196-201 attempt to disrupt the power grid, 196-97 disrupting Ukrtelecom, 196-97 Russia against Ukraine, 118 Sandworm hacking group strikes back, 196-201 Sandworm I (2015 Blackout), 136-41 (see also 2015 Blackout [Ukraine]) Sandworm II (2016 Kyiv Blackout), 144-50 (see also Kyiv Blackout, 2016) Sandworm strikes back in Ukraine, 196-201 through cyber means, 119 CyberBerkut hacker group, 132-33 cyber-enabled subversion, 117-73. See also “hybrid war,” Russia against Ukraine (2013-2018) cyber operations, 42-43 “attack surface” for, 49 comparison to traditional subversion, 42-43,55-56 in degrading material capabilities, 51 in disrupting the economy, 51 effects, 47-48 scope and scale of, 48,53 challenges, 42-43,49-50 for long-term “erosion” strategies, 50 (see also erosion
strategies) manipulating government policy, 51 in manipulating public opinion, 50-51 relative advantages, 42-43,48-50 strategic role and promise of, 48-52 subversive nature, 3-4 scalability, 48-49 cyber power, subversive nature of, 43-48 phishing, 44 social vulnerabilities targeted, 43-44 technical vulnerabilities targeted, 43-44 “Cyberpunk” hacker group, 43-44 Czechoslovakia, 15 Andropov’s strategy on, 68,87 anti-Soviet nationalism” in, 116 armed force, 67-68 KGB’s illegals in, 14-15,61, 111, 192 (see also KHODOKI campaign; PROGRESS campaign) Kremlin perception and strategic goals, 63-70 Prague Spring and, 60 (see also Prague Spring (1968-1973), crushing the) Soviet strategic goals at, 98-99,101,102 Soviets’ subversion failure in, 61,17677,208 as a “testing ground” for subversion use, 14-15 Danyliuk, Oleksandr, 160-61 Derkach, Andriy, 193 diplomacy definition, 19 interaction with use of force, 19,25,117 interaction with subversion, 1 -2,64,70, 92-93,121-22 interaction with warfare, 1-2,17-18, 19,21
INDEX distributed denial of service (DDoS), 178-87,201 Dobrynin, Anatolii, 69-70 Donbass failure and escalation, 129-31 Dubcek, Alexander, 60,62,64,65,66-67, 81,84-87,91,92-93,104,105, 106-7,109,110,114 Dubov, Dmitry, 128-29,155 economic and psychological (cyber) warfare, 178-88 erosion strategies, 28,30-31,50 causing collateral cognitive damage, 223-24 cyber operations as, 50,56-57 effects of, 28 long-term campaigns effects on the balance of power, 219-20,223 by Russia in Ukraine, 118—19 2014,118-19 2022,174,178 strategic role, 57 strategic value of, 39-40 in subversive campaigns, 42-43 to undermine trust, 223-24 to weaken the adversary, 28 escalation, 56-57 in Czechoslovakia, role of subversion, 90-91,93-94,113-14,216-17 in the Donbass region, 129-31 “escalation ladder’ for covert operations, 72,74-75,76,95,117-18,136-37, 143,146,151,194,198-99 KHODOKI campaign in, 62-63 Kremlin decision to invade Czechoslovakia, 176-77,208 lowered risks in covert warfare, 3-4, 7-8,29 military escalation, 10,213,214-15, 218 subversion lowering the risk of, 29-30, 37-39 time pressure as the cause, 213 in Ukraine, 174,210-11 exploitation analysis of the mechanism of, 75,11112,224-25 challenges in the process of, 40-41 331 of computer systems, 46,48 as distinguishing feature of subversion, 23-24 failure of, 203 force use to facilitate, 23-24 immaterial means of, 46-47 indirect and secret nature of, 25 by IsaacWiper, 184-85 prevention of, 226-27 of psychological and sociological vulnerabilities, 7,21 secret mode of operation, 22-23, 30,31,38 spies using the technique of, 26,103-4 by
subversion, in practice, 17-18 subversion speed limited by, 3132,35,37 subversion’s reliance on, 3-4,7,11-12, 21,23-24,207 as subversive nature of cyber power, 43 traditional subversion and, 5152,55, 57 of Ukrtelecom’s network, 197 using unpatched VPN device, 191,199 of vulnerabilities in ICTs, 43-44, 45,48,57 Fedorov, Mykhailo, 182 firmware, 44,190,191 force, 24-25,69 and diplomacy, 19-20 military force, 67-68,75,84-85,105, 116,126-27 spies using, 23-24 subjugation by, 69-70 subversion in the service of, 188-96 subversion versus, 7,17-18,25,28-31, 38-39,174-75 Frolov, Kirill, 14,120-21,122-23,126-27, 130 FYODOROV illegal agent, 102-3,111-12 GE CIMPLICITY HMI (Human Machine Interface) systems, 138 German Stasi Records Agency, 14 Glazyev, Sergey Yuryevich, 122-23,126,127 government policy, subversion influencing, 26
332 INDEX Granovski, Vladimir, 123 Grechko, Marshal, 109 GreenPetya ransomware, 159,160 GreyEnergy group, 141 Groysman, Volodymyr, 151-52 Guillaume, Günther, 26 hacking, 11-12,134 APT28,132 cyber operations as, 43-44 CyberBerkut, 132 “Cyberpunk” hacker group, 43-44 hack-and-leak operations, 50-51 KillDisk module, 137,156-57 over industrial control systems, 53,139 Russian sponsored, in Ukraine, 118, 120-21,131-32 Sean Townsend, 160 stealth in, 45 subversive nature of, 45,46 target systems for, 55,138 Ukrainian hacktivists, 127 Viasat hack, 189-90,191,211,217 vulnerabilities targeted, 43-44 “HermeticWiper” malware, 183-85 Husak, Gustav, 62-63,110 “hybrid war,” Russian strategy against Ukraine (2013-2018), 117-73. See also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “Complex of Measures” document, . 119-20,122 Donbass failure and escalation, 129-31 economic warfare, Sandworms pivot to scale, 153-67 Euromaidan movement, 122 Kremlin perception and strategic goals, 119-22 new technology, old limitations, 169-73 public trust in the government, 170,171/ Russia turning to subversion, 118 sabotage, cyber versus traditional subversion, 135-53 GE CIMPLICITY HMI systems, 138 KillDisk module, 137 learning requirement, 139 Sandworm I: The 2015 Blackout, 136-41 SCADA systems, 138 Sandworm II, The 2016 Kyiv Blackout, 144-50 Sandworm III, The 2016 compromise of the Ministry of Finance 154-57 Sandworm IV, NotPetya and the limits of control, 157-64 Sandworm V, BadRabbit, 164-67 (see also BadRabbit ransomware) shadow forces take Crimea, 124-29 Euromaidan crisis, 127 “pro-Russian demonstrators,” 126 subversion
falters for Russia, 122-24 constraints posed by the trilemma, 124 Ukraine Cyber Alliance, 123 subversive election interference, 2014-2015,131-35 traditional sabotage 1,2015 Crimea Blackout, 141-44 operation and cyber sabotage, difference between, 143 traditional sabotage II, arms depot explosion in Kalynivka, 150-53 Ukrainian D-30 artillery and the tactical sabotage, 167-69 illegal agents, 15,67-68. See also KHODOKI campaign; PROGRESS campaign advantage of, 80-81 Aleksandr Alekseev, 71 ALLA, 102-3 ARTYMOVA, 102-3 in Czechoslovakia, sent by Andropov, 67-68 during Prague Spring, 71 FYODOROV, 102-3,111-12 Gennadi Borzov, 71 Georgii Fedyashin, 71 of KGB, infiltrating Western societies, 23,61 KRAVCHENKO, 110 Mikhail Sagatelyan, 84 near the West German border, 76,80-81 Vladimir Surzhaninov, 71 V. Umnov, 71
INDEX Indra, Alois, 84-85 industrial control system (ICS), 48,55, 138,139,145-46,149-50 GE CIMPLICITY HMI (Human Machine Interface) systems, 138 SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems, 138 TRITON malware, 53 INDUSTROYER, 145,146-48,149, 150,200 information communications and technologies (ICTs), 43-44 information technology and subversion, 42-59. See also cyber operations insider threats, 197-98,199 in cybersecurity, 220 intelligence, 5-6,7 artificial intelligence, 226-27 collection activity, 65,71,82-84,192-93 byKSC.84,86 ' by Ukrainian KGB, 85 CyberBerkut, 132 Israel’s intelligence service, 219 by KGB agent(s) in Czechoslovakia, 7273,74,76-77,108 open-source intelligence, 4-5,14 operations, 7-8 in Greece, 27-28 Russian intelligence services in Ukraine, 151-52,162 GRU, 163,181-82 Russian intelligence services to Chernobyl, 195-96 slanted intelligence, 82,91,17677,187-88 theory, 1-2 “threat intelligence” providers, 54 Ukrainian intelligence services, 14144,193 WhisperGate, 179-80 intensity, in subversive trilemma, 4,12, 13/, 13-14,35-38,40-41,42-43, 55,56,57-58 BadRabbit operation, 172,180-81 control and speed and, inverse correlation between, 36,76-77,95, 100-1,179,224-25 in cyber conflicts, 57-58 333 as determinant of strategic value, 36-37 in fulfilling strategic promise, 99-100 HermeticWiper, 183-84 KHODOKI operations, 61,114 NotPetya and the limits of control, 157-64 power grid sabotage attempt in April 2022,202 in PROGRESS operations, 61 Soviet Union over Czechoslovakia, 92-93 international relations theory, 7 IsaacWiper, 184-85 Kalugin, Oleg, 91
Kalynivka, arms depot explosion in, 150-53 Katana malware, 182 KHODOKI campaign, 61,62-63,70-92, 208 major subversive operations, 72 exploitation mechanism, 75 fake arms caches influence, 77,79 KGB, errors by, 76-77 kidnapping leading intellectuals, 72 planting false flag “evidence,” 76 using GROMOV, 73,74 using GURYEV, 73,74 weakening the liberalization movement, 72 KHODOKI Redux, 104-10 “Aeroflot Incident,” 104-10 Dubceks “conspiracy theory” flaws, 107 Vltava radio station, 104-5 Zpravy magazine, 104-5 Kievoblenergors, 137 KillDisk malware, 139,154,156-57 Kluyev, Andriy, 187-88 Kolder, Drahomir, 84-85 Kolesnichenko, Vadim, 124 Kovalchuk, Vsevolod, 146 Koval, Nikolay, 133,148-49,163-64 KRAVCHENKO illegal agent, 110 Kremlin Brezhnev doctrine and, 69 “Complex of Measures” document, 119-20,122
334 INDEX Kremlin (cent.) cyber-enabled subversion against Ukraine by, 119-22 Euromaidan movement, 122 leaked documents and emails, 4-5 “loss” of Czechoslovakia, prevention plans, 67,98-99,109 Prague Spring and, 60,63-70 Prozumenshchikov’s analysis of, 68,116 reliance on diplomacy, force, and subversion, 64 subversive activities by, 101-2,117-18 taking Crimea, contingency plan, 124-29 in Ukraine invasion, 2022,176-78 economic and psychological (cyber) warfare, 178,187-88 subversion in the service of force, 188-96 Krivosheev, Vladlen, 78 Kryvoruchko, Serhiy, 194-95 Kyiv Blackout, 2016 (Ukraine), 144-50 destructive potential of malware, 146 development time, 145-46 effects and strategic value, 150 failure of malware, 148-50 INDUSTROYER developed, 145,14648,149,150 Severyana power substation de energized, 145 signaling interpretations and problems, 146-49 Lappi, Leo, 102-3,111-12 Lavrov, Sergej, 177 Lenin, Vladimir, 8 Makhalkina, Μ., 121 Malofeev, Konstantin, 123 Markovets, Sergiy, 163-64 Medvedchuk, Viktor, 196 Medvedev, Dmitry, 142 military escalation, 10,213,214-15,218 Ministry of Finance compromise, 2016,154-57 development time, 154-55 effects and strategic value, 155 KillDisk malware, 154 vulnerabilities exploited, 156-57 Mirai malware, 182 Moonraker worm, 159 Morris, Robert Tappan, 54-55 “Morris worm,” 54-55 Naftogaz, 197-98 Nalivaychenko, Valentin, 127-28 Narozhnyy, Pavlo, 168-69 Naumov, Andriy, 195-96 nonintervention principle, 29-30 NotPetya malware, 157-64 AES-NI cybercrime tool, 161 collateral damage and loss of control, 157-64 data and computers, disabled, 157-58
development time, 159 disk wiping functionality 158-59 effects and strategic value, 153,160-61 163,172 supply-chain mechanism, 159-60,162 XData., 159,161 Novikov, Andrey, 126-27,130 Novotny, Antonin, 64 Nye, Joseph, 20,140-41 October CMS exploited, 178-79,180-81 Ohryzko, Volodymyr, 120-21 Pachman, Ludek, 110 Parubiy, Andriy, 151-52 persistent engagement, 6 and erosion, 219-20 limitations, 50 phishing, 47-48,137 exploitation by, 44 to exploit software vulnerabilities, 46 by Sandworm, 134,154-55 Podesta, John, 44 Poroshenko, Petro, 158 power as an essential contested concept, 18 diplomacy as an instrument of, 19 force as an instrument of, 19-20 and subversion, 17-41 in world politics, 18-20 power grid sabotage operation, 154,157, 159,172
INDEX Prague Spring (1968-1973), crushing the, 60-116. See also KHODOKI Redux “armed counterrevolution,” 62 contingency planning, failure and fallback to, 86-92 KHODOKI failure, 90-91 PROGRESS failure, 90-91 failed coup and tanks in Prague, 92-99 ambitious operational design, 98-99 constraints posed by the trilemma, 95 Czechoslovak radio stations continued operation, 96 lack of adequate preparation, 97 military invasion, 93 public resistance, 98 regime change failure, 93,94-95 subversive actors influence, 93-94 "illegal" spying activities, 67-68 intelligence collection activity, 65 KHODOKI campaign, 61,62-63,70-92 Kremlin perception and strategic goals, 63-70 “normalization” and permanent occupation, 99-113 illegal agents role deepened, 102-3 KHODOKI operations, scaled down, 100-1 “massive interference,” 101-2 PROGRESS, lack of impact from, 103-4 PROGRESS and a normalization incomplete, 110-13 disillusionment with the reformist leaders, 112-13 economic recovery from 1972,112-13 PROGRESS campaign, 61,62-63, 70-92 “Silent Invasion,” commencing, 70-92 operational timelines, 71 training, 71 subversion and military force, 67 Prochizka, Jan, 72-73,74 PROGRESS campaign, 61,62-63,70-92, 208 and a normalization incomplete, 110-13 335 subverting government and civil society, 81-86 established network of spies and informers, 82-83 GROMOV agent, 81-82 GURYEV agent, 81-82 HUMINT collection, 84 KGB records on Czechoslovakia, 83/ SADKO agent, 81-82 YEFRAT agent, 81-82 YEVDOKIMOV agent, 81-82 Prykarpattyaoblenergo, 137 psychological vulnerability, 7,21 public opinion, subversion
influencing, 26 Putin, Vladimir, 121,146-47,177,196 Python/TeleBot.A malware, 159 quality of subversion, 38-41,57-59 continuity over change in, 57-59 independent and a complementary strategic role, 57 secret exploitation and manipulation, 57 subversive trilemma persisting, 57-58 defining, 38-41 operational trilemma, 39 significant strategic value, 38-39 quantity over quality, 207-27 regime change, subversion in, 27 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 2022,174206. See also “hybrid war,” Russia against Ukraine (2013-2018) BootPatch malware, 179-80 botched coup, 187-88 botnet operation, 181-82 CaddyWiper malware, 185-86 critical infrastructure sabotage, 196-201 attack enabled by territorial conquest, 197-98 defacements, 178-87 distributed denial of service (DDoS), 178-87 DNSs targeted, 182 economic and psychological (cyber) warfare, 178-87
336 INDEX Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 2022 (cont.) "HermeticWiper" malware, 183-84 IsaacWiper, 184-85 Katana malware, 182 Kremlin perception and goals, 176-78 October CMS exploited, 178-79,180-81 subversion in the service of force, 188-96 AcidRain malware, 191 KA-SAT disruption, 190,191-92 WhisperGate malware, 179,180,181 Whisper-Kill malware, 179 WhiteBlackCrypt, 179-80 wipers, 178-87 sabotage. See also critical infrastructure sabotage curious case of the artillery, 167-69 cyber operations best suited for, 46 cyber versus traditional subversion, 135-53,1361,209-10,219 Kalynivka, arms depot explosion in,150-53 KGB operation in Greece, 27-28 of a power substation in Germany, by a KGB agent, 23 Russian-sponsored cyber operations against Ukraine in, 118 Stuxnet operation, 10 as subversive operations goal, 8,26 Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance compromise (2016), 154-57 Ukraine’s power grid, 2-3 Ukrtelecom disruption, 201 “unknown unknowns” risk in, 34 Viasat compromise, 201 Sagatelyan, Mikhail, 84-86,87 Sandworm hacking group, 133-34 economic warfare, Sandworm’s pivot to scale, 153-67 Sandworm I (2015 Blackout), 136-41 (see also 2015 Blackout) Sandworm II (2016 Kyiv Blackout), 144-50 (see also Kyiv Blackout, 2016) Sandworm III, (Ministry of Finance compromise, 2016), 154-57 (see also Ministry of Finance compromise, 2016) Sandworm IV (NotPetya and the limits of control), 157-64 (see also NotPetya malware) Sandworm V (BadRabbit), 164-67 (see also BadRabbit ransomware) SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems, 138. See also industrial control system (ICS) GE
CIMPLICITY HMI (Human Machine Interface) systems, 138 Sivkovich, Vladimir, 187-88 Smrkovsky, Josef, 84-86,104-5 “social engineering,” 44 social vulnerabilities, 7,11 -12,21,44,5253,134,137 speed, in subversive trilemma, 4,12,13/ 13-14,35-38,40-41,42-43,55, 56,57-58 BadRabbit operation, 172,180-81 control and intensity and, inverse correlation between, 36,76-77,95, 100-1,179,224-25 in cyber conflicts, 57-58 in fulfilling strategic promise, 99-100 HermeticWiper, 183-84 as key determinant of strategic value, 36-37 KHODOKI operations, 61,114 NotPetya and the limits of control, 157-64 power grid sabotage attempt in April 2022,202 in PROGRESS operations, 61 Soviet Union over Czechoslovakia, 92-93 spies, 53 advantages, 17-18 cautions to follow, 33 exploiting flawed security rules and practices, 23 exploiting individual-level vulnerabilities, 23 force and coercion use by, 23-24,33 illegals, definition, 67-68 in PROGRESS, 102-4 risks, 37 as subversion key tool, 17-18,23 traditional subversion using, 11-12 undercover spies, 26-28,225
INDEX stability and subversion, 207,213 Stoltenberg, Jens, 190 Stuxnet, 10-11,47-48,52-53,56,14647,219 subversion. See also quality of subversion alternate explanations and limitations, 221-27 basic conditions of, 31-34 available target with suitable vulnerabilities, 31-32 exploiting vulnerability without being discovered, 34-36 subversive agent with suitable abilities, 32-33 falters for Russia, 122-24 force and warfare versus, 7 influencing government policy, 26 influencing public opinion, 26 influencing target state’s material capabilities, 26 as an instrument of power, 5,7 limits of, 113-16 constraints and trade-offs predicted by trilemma, 114 dependence on vulnerabilities in societies, 116 reliance on illegal agents, 113-14 use of force, 114 new possibilities and new perils, 207 nonmilitary options as, 7-8 offering strategic potential, 29 and power, 17-41 power through exploitation and manipulation, 21-25 reduces cost of escalation, 29 reduces follow-on costs, 30 in regime change, 27 in the service of force, 188-96 speed, intensity, and control variables and, 35-37 spies as key tools of, 23 strategic potential in scholarship and strategy, 5-6 strategic role and promise of, 25-31 targeting systems, 22 technological change changing, 5 trilemma and strategic value, 31-38 types of effects, 50 337 undermining institutional effectiveness, 26-27 use in invasion, 211 in war, 174-206 (see also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) subversive election interference, 20142015,131-35 subversive trilemma, 11,12-13,13/, 16,52-58 limiting strategic value, 31-38,90 control over effects, 34,104
intensity of effects, 32-33 in speed, 31-32 Surkov, Vladislav, 14,123,126 Surzhaninov, Vladimir, 71 Svoboda, Ludvik, 93-94,105 tactical sabotage, 167-69 Ukrainian D-30 artillery, 168 tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), 54 technical vulnerability, 43,44,45, 52-53 TeleBots group, 141 Townsend, Sean, 148-49,168 traditional sabotage 1,2015 Crimea Blackout, 141-44 traditional subversion, 3-4,5-6,8,24,5556,60-116. See also Prague Spring (1968-1973), crushing the vis-a-vis cyber-enabled subversion, 4-5 traditional versus cyber sabotage, 13553,136t TRITON malware, 53,55 Turchynov, Oleksandr, 152-53 Ukraine Cyber Alliance, 123 Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance compromise (2016), 154-57 power grid sabotage operation 2015,157,159,172 2022,202 Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection (SSSCIP), 179-80, 186,189,197-99 Ukrainian D-30 artillery and the tactical sabotage, 168 Ukrenergo, 143-44
338 INDEX Ukrtelecom disruption, 201 Umnov, V., 71 Vaculik, Ludvik, 81-82 Venediktova, Irina, 194-95 Viasat compromise, 201 Vltava radio station, 104-5 vulnerability in adversary systems, 41 agents using, 24 cyber operations exploiting, 43-44 identifying, 12,21,31-32, 52-53,80-81 in information communications and technologies (ICTs), 43-44,48,49 individual-level vulnerabilities, 23 INDUSTROYER exploiting, 149 NotPetya malware exploiting, 157-58 in October CMS, 178-79 psychological, 7,21 social, 44, 52-53,134,137 sociological, 7,11-12,21 software vulnerabilities, 46 spies exploiting, 23-24 subversion depends on, 31,116,129-30, 210,226 subversive operations using, 26,39,42 technical, 43,44,45,52-53 ofUkraine, 140-41,146,156 ofVPN devices, 191 zero-day, 138 warfare and diplomacy, 1-2,19,21 website defacements (Ukraine), 178-87 WhisperGate malware, 179,180,181 WhisperKill malware, 179 WhiteBlackCrypt, 179-80 world politics, power in, 18-20 world politics, subversion implications for, 211-21 balance of power remains unaffected, 212-13 destabilizing mass effects and systemic disruption risk, 215-16 increases the risk of unintended/ inadvertent escalation, 216-19 stabilizes world politics, 213 state-society and states-nonstate actors relations impacted, 221 traditional subversion still more relevantin, 219-20 XData malware, 159,161 , Yakovlev, Aleksandr, 96 Yanukovych, Viktor, 117-18,121-22, 124-26,130 Yuryevich, Sergey, 123 Zatulin, Konstantin, 126 Zelenskiy, Volodymyr, 187,194-95 zero-dayvulnerability, 138 Zhivkov, 84-85 Zhora, Victor, 132,133,134,148-49,180, 186,189,202-205
Zpravy magazine, 104-5 Bayerische Staatsbibliothek München |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Maschmeyer, Lennart |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1228343632 |
| author_facet | Maschmeyer, Lennart |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Maschmeyer, Lennart |
| author_variant | l m lm |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV049699341 |
| contents | Subversion and Power -- Information Technology and Subversion -- Traditional Subversion : Crushing the Prague Spring 1968-1973 -- Cyber-Enabled Subversion : Russia's 'Hybrid War' against Ukraine 2013-2018 -- Subversion in War : Russia's full-scale Invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 -- New possibilities and new perils |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1446252475 (DE-599)BVBBV049699341 |
| era | Geschichte 1968- gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1968- |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Russland Sowjetunion |
| id | DE-604.BV049699341 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-11T09:06:55Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780197745861 9780197745854 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-035041778 |
| oclc_num | 1446252475 |
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| physical | x, 338 Seiten Illustrationen 23,5 cm |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20240828 |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateSearch | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Oxford University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Maschmeyer, Lennart Verfasser (DE-588)1228343632 aut Subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict Lennart Maschmeyer From covert operations to cyber conflict New York, NY Oxford University Press [2024] x, 338 Seiten Illustrationen 23,5 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Subversion and Power -- Information Technology and Subversion -- Traditional Subversion : Crushing the Prague Spring 1968-1973 -- Cyber-Enabled Subversion : Russia's 'Hybrid War' against Ukraine 2013-2018 -- Subversion in War : Russia's full-scale Invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 -- New possibilities and new perils "In 2014, Russia launched a "Hybrid War" against Ukraine that, according to some, ushered in a revolution in conflict. The term is notoriously vague, referring to all measures short of war states use to attain strategic aims. States, of course, have long used measures in the "gray zone" between war and peace. Yet they did not always have the Internet."-- Geschichte 1968- gnd rswk-swf Hybridkrieg (DE-588)107366371X gnd rswk-swf Subversion (DE-588)4213485-7 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd rswk-swf Hybrid warfare / Russia (Federation) Cyberspace operations (Military science) / Russia (Federation) Subversive activities / Russia (Federation) Disinformation / Russia (Federation) Psychological warfare / Russia (Federation) Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Ukraine Ukraine / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) Guerre hybride / Russie Cyberguerre (Science militaire) / Russie Activités subversives / Russie Désinformation / Russie Guerre psychologique / Russie Ukraine / Relations extérieures / Russie Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 g Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Subversion (DE-588)4213485-7 s Hybridkrieg (DE-588)107366371X s Geschichte 1968- z DE-604 Online version Maschmeyer, Lennart, 1984- Subversion New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2024] 9780197745885 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000007&line_number=0004&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000009&line_number=0005&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000011&line_number=0006&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Maschmeyer, Lennart Subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict Subversion and Power -- Information Technology and Subversion -- Traditional Subversion : Crushing the Prague Spring 1968-1973 -- Cyber-Enabled Subversion : Russia's 'Hybrid War' against Ukraine 2013-2018 -- Subversion in War : Russia's full-scale Invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 -- New possibilities and new perils Hybridkrieg (DE-588)107366371X gnd Subversion (DE-588)4213485-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)107366371X (DE-588)4213485-7 (DE-588)4076899-5 (DE-588)4077548-3 |
| title | Subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict |
| title_alt | From covert operations to cyber conflict |
| title_auth | Subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict |
| title_exact_search | Subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict |
| title_full | Subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict Lennart Maschmeyer |
| title_fullStr | Subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict Lennart Maschmeyer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict Lennart Maschmeyer |
| title_short | Subversion |
| title_sort | subversion from covert operations to cyber conflict |
| title_sub | from covert operations to cyber conflict |
| topic | Hybridkrieg (DE-588)107366371X gnd Subversion (DE-588)4213485-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Hybridkrieg Subversion Russland Sowjetunion |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000007&line_number=0004&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000009&line_number=0005&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035041778&sequence=000011&line_number=0006&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT maschmeyerlennart subversionfromcovertoperationstocyberconflict AT maschmeyerlennart fromcovertoperationstocyberconflict |
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